As of today, September 20, 2011, the Obama/Romney raced has been the most frequently and consistently polled contest since the beginning of 2011. This is no surprise because he has been the front runner for quite a long time, and has basically been running for president since 2007. In total, the race has been polled in 36 of the 50 states since late January of this year. Most of the results are not too surprising; however, given the current standing of the President's approval ratings and the state of the economy, Obama seems to be in much better shape than most think he is. The caveat to most of this data is that in several states there has been only one or two polls taken, and it is still very early in the cycle. This is merely meant to give a snapshot understanding of where the polls have placed the two candidates as of this moment in time. So, there is the list of the current aggregate data (in order from Obama's highest positive differential)
This current data would yield Obama 290 Electoral Votes and Romney 142 Electoral Votes. This puts Obama over the 270 EV threshold for a victory in 2012. This of course does not count the states which do not have any polling data to be analyzed. If those states were to be allocated to the party which won them in the previous cycle, the final results would be Obama 341, Romney 194.
Some of the states which are worth taking a look at, in my estimation, are Iowa, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Ohio, North Carolina, Nevada, Florida, Virginia, New Hampshire, and Missouri.
Most conventional wisdom is that some of the most traditionally Democratic states (i.e. Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Ohio) are some of the most vulnerable states for Obama to lose in 2012. However, he is doing better in these states than the ones which he won that had been Republican (most notably North Carolina and Virginia).
Although given this polling data, Obama would win a big re-election, it is important to note that his numbers for many of the 'Toss-Up' states are in the mid-40s, which is not very high given his incumbent status. However, one must also take into account that summers are usually a period of low polling and approval for both candidate and President Obama. Taking all of these factors into account, along with the increasingly more populist message being taken by the president, I believe Obama is in a favorable position for the upcoming election, which is now just under 14 months away!!
More on Romney and Obama to come soon! ( The issues matter of course!)
