Since my last post there have been a couple of polls that changed some of my predictions, not in a major way, but I just wanted to record what the most accurate picture currently is of some of the races. So here is my current take on Iowa.
As noted there have been 2 polls out of Iowa painting two different pictures. One (PPP) gives Republican Senator Chuck Grassley an edge of 57% to 31% over his Democratic challenger Roxanne Conlin. The other (R2K) gives Grassley the advantage by a much closer margin of 50% to 42%. Right now my formula has Conlin with about 37% and Grassley around 53%. Of the four polls which have been taken of this race Grassley overall is hovering around 50% and Conlin around 40%. As stated before Grassley definitely has the advantage here, but if Conlin can positively improve her name recognition and paint Grassley as a standard bearer of the GOP and the Party-of-No and bring his numbers down she might have a chance. Overall this race stays in the Likely Republican column right now.
Grassley 53.23% Conlin 36.72% R+16.5 (Greatly effected by what I consider to be a PPP outlier FYI without the PPP poll Grassley 50.3 Conlin 41.2 R+9.1)
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