The Iowa GOP Not Giving Up on Cain ~ 11/7/2011

So this past weekend I posted two race prediction posts for either an Obama/Romney or Obama/Perry general election in 2012.  Both showed President Obama doing fairly well in the face of strong head winds.  As a result, I got some flack from certain commenters on the DailyKos for painting to 'rosy' of a picture.  I want to state again that my race ratings and predictions are based on calculated averages of polling data based on the polls' recentness, sample size and the quality of the pollster.  The results which I reported on my posts are a product of these calculations, so if you are to believe the predictions are 'too left' or biased, I say...look at the state polls.

Now for today's daily (or almost daily) polling up date...


1) Obama Approval - Gallup 1500 Adults 11/4-11/6, 43% approve, 50% disapprove...Obama= +1% approval, +/-0% disapproval (net +1% Obama) 


2) Obama Approval - Rasmussen 1500 LV 11/4-11/6, 47% approve, 52% disapprove...Obama= +2% approval, -1% disapproval (net +3% Obama)


These are two pretty good results for the President.  Particularly, when one looks at the Rasmussen poll, Obama has his best performance (only down 5) since early August of this year, save one day in early October. What's even more interesting is that his strongly approve/strongly disapprove numbers are getting increasingly better, something that may show the Democratic base may be rallying around the President and picking up enthusiasm as we head into 2012.  

                                      My Average: 43.4% Approval, 51.9% Disapproval

For the states...


3) Iowa GOP Caucus- Insider Advantage 507 LV 11/3. 30% Cain, 15% Romney, 12% Gingrich, 9% Paul, 8% Bachmann, 6% Perry, 2% Huntsman


4) Iowa GOP Caucus- We Ask America 864 LV 22% Cain, 18% Gingrich, 15% Romney, 11% Bachmann, 11% Paul, 4% Perry, 3% Santorum, 2% Huntsman


A couple of things to note...

• Cain continues to lead...Everyone seems to believe that the sex harassment scandal will hurt Herman Cain; however, I continue to say, as I have since last week, that I don't believe this will have much of an effect on Cain.  The conservative media is rallying around Cain and painting him as a victim of the 'liberal media,' and let's face it there are many conservative men who may not care whether the accusations are true or not.

• Perry is sinking even faster...He is now in 6th place in both of these polls, behind Bachmann and Paul, yet the media still believe he will be a factor in the nomination because of his 'money.'  However, he's getting very close to Santorum/Hunstman territory which is not a good sign for his campaign, making Gingrich seem much more viable than Perry in many of the key early states. 

Iowa GOP Average: 22.3% Cain, 19.3% Romney, 10.9% Gingrich, 11.2% Paul, 9.8% Bachmann, 8.6% Perry, 3.5% Santorum, 1.7% Huntsman

10/30/11 Sunday Polling Update

Only three polls of note today, two on the president's approval rating and one on the GOP race in Iowa.

1) Obama Approval - Gallup 1500 Adults 10/27-10/29, 43% approve, 50% disapprove...Obama= +1% approval, -1% disapproval (net +2%)

2) Obama Approval - Rasmussen 1500 LV 10/27-10/29, 46% approve, 53% disapprove...Obama= no change approval, +1% disapproval (net -1%)

3) Iowa Caucus - Selzer & Co. (Des Moines Register) 400 LV 10/23-10/26, 23% Cain, 22% Romney, 12% Paul, 8% Bachmann, 7% Gingrich, 7% Perry, 5% Santorum, 1% Hunstman

Obama has a net approval rating of negative seven percent in both daily tracking approval polls, showing once again that his standing is increasing steadily, albeit at a predictably slow rate.  Even Rasmussen has him at 46% and a deeper look at their poll shows that is strongly approve/disapprove numbers are even climbing slowly.  With regard to the IA Caucus, please read my earlier post on Herman Cain and his unyielding position at the top of the GOP primary field.

Looks Like Herm Has Some Staying Power...at least more than Rick!

Yesterday, the Des Moines Register released a well respected poll of likely Republican Caucus goers in Iowa which showed that Herman Cain has not dropped in the polls yet, and it seems he may be more than just a "flavor of the month," a term coined by the increasingly insignificant Sarah Palin. The poll, done by Selzer & Co., showed Cain with 23% support among caucus goers, marginally leading Mitt Romney who has 22%, after that there is a ten percent drop of to Ron Paul at 12%. For a means of comparison, MSNBC's First Read points out that four years ago, "Romney led the field — at 29 percent - to former Arkansas governor and eventual caucus-winner Mike Huckabee's 12 percent in the October 2007 edition of the same poll." Romney is at a lower point than he was four years ago, and the electorate has moved farther to the right, both not good signs for the former governor of Massachusetts.  Herman Cain seems to not be losing traction among Iowa Republicans and polls continue to show him at the top of the pack, whether you look at the races state by state or at a national level.

Cain's surge in the GOP primary contest began in late September/early October, and has continued in spite of numerous negative analysis of his tax plan, campaign strategies, blunt language with regard to different voting groups, and lack of seriousness organization in early primary states.  However, he remains at the top of the polls in these states, and seems to do better the more people get to know about him.  In comparison, Rick Perry only stayed this high in the polls, during his initial surge, for about a two to three weeks (from around mid/early August to the end of the month).  Using my polling averaging formula, you can easily see the raising of Cain, plummeting of Romney, and the stagnation of the field otherwise.

 It is obvious that Cain should not be counted out and is resonating with voters, especially tea-partiers, in some way, even in the face of an increasingly negative narrative. Everyone, in the media at least, seems to believe that the race will come down to Romney and Perry, with Paul playing the role of possible spoiler.  However, I think there is definitely room for other faces, as the GOP electorate seem unhappy with their choices and seem to be going from candidate to candidate trying to find the 'right' fit.  Even with as unpopular as Barack Obama is, Mitt Romney, hasn't been able to coalesce the Republican base for the past four years, its difficult to see a reason why they would all of a sudden become enlightened to the word of Romney.     

Iowa Race Ratings (6/5/2010)

Since my last post there have been a couple of polls that changed some of my predictions, not in a major way, but I just wanted to record what the most accurate picture currently is of some of the races. So here is my current take on Iowa.

As noted there have been 2 polls out of Iowa painting two different pictures. One (PPP) gives Republican Senator Chuck Grassley an edge of 57% to 31% over his Democratic challenger Roxanne Conlin. The other (R2K) gives Grassley the advantage by a much closer margin of 50% to 42%. Right now my formula has Conlin with about 37% and Grassley around 53%. Of the four polls which have been taken of this race Grassley overall is hovering around 50% and Conlin around 40%. As stated before Grassley definitely has the advantage here, but if Conlin can positively improve her name recognition and paint Grassley as a standard bearer of the GOP and the Party-of-No and bring his numbers down she might have a chance. Overall this race stays in the Likely Republican column right now.

Grassley 53.23% Conlin 36.72% R+16.5 (Greatly effected by what I consider to be a PPP outlier FYI without the PPP poll Grassley 50.3 Conlin 41.2 R+9.1)