Since my last post there have been a couple of polls that changed some of my predictions, not in a major way, but I just wanted to record what the most accurate picture currently is of some of the races. So here is my current take on Iowa.
As noted there have been 2 polls out of Iowa painting two different pictures. One (PPP) gives Republican Senator Chuck Grassley an edge of 57% to 31% over his Democratic challenger Roxanne Conlin. The other (R2K) gives Grassley the advantage by a much closer margin of 50% to 42%. Right now my formula has Conlin with about 37% and Grassley around 53%. Of the four polls which have been taken of this race Grassley overall is hovering around 50% and Conlin around 40%. As stated before Grassley definitely has the advantage here, but if Conlin can positively improve her name recognition and paint Grassley as a standard bearer of the GOP and the Party-of-No and bring his numbers down she might have a chance. Overall this race stays in the Likely Republican column right now.
Grassley 53.23% Conlin 36.72% R+16.5 (Greatly effected by what I consider to be a PPP outlier FYI without the PPP poll Grassley 50.3 Conlin 41.2 R+9.1)
Showing posts with label 111th Congress. Show all posts
Showing posts with label 111th Congress. Show all posts
Saturday, June 5, 2010
Friday, June 4, 2010
Race Ratings-Quick Edition
So I have been doing some polling analysis using my method from the 2008 election for the 2010 Senatorial election cycle in a variety of states with competitive and non competitive races. I just wanted to put some of my ratings out there. There won't be deep analysis just yet, maybe a line or two where needed to explain myself if you think I'm crazy. I hope to do an analysis of each race at different times throughout the next few weeks but here's my snapshot as of today June 4, 2010.
Safe Democrat: VT, MD, HI, NY-A (Schumer), NY-B (Gillibrand +24), OR (+13)
Very Likely Democrat: CT(Blumenthal +20)
Leans Democrat: CA (+6.5)
WA (+3)
WI (+2..but very little polling, and I don't quite trust it)
Toss-Up: CO (D+2.5)
NV (D+4.5..this is if Angle wins, if either other candidate wins it will be much closer but they're both about D+1)
OH (D+1.6)
PA (R+.5...this just switched back R after a RAS poll that was off base with others, right now i would rate this a tossup but give the edge to Sestak)
MO (R+1.2...just got a new poll showing this race super tight, still give edge to Reps though)
IL (R+3.3...no polling since the Kirk fumble-a-thon, so likely to change)
NC (R+1.5...this is with Elaine Marshall, she's in a run-off with Cal Cunningham, Cunningham right now gives this a R+5.3, could be a surprise pick up for Dems)
KY (R+8.1...inflated because of a RAS poll that was most definitely an outlier, should be closer, still give Rep an edge)
Leans Republican: NH (R+11.8...I can't believe Ayotte's numbers being this high in a state like NH I see this getting closer)
AR (R+15 with Halter, +23 with Boozman...very uphill for Dems but it is a Dem seat, hopefully Halter can pull one out)
FL (R+2 over Indy, R+16 over Dem...either way Rubio is stalling out, and Crist could caucus with the Dems after his nasty fight with GOPers in Florida and nationally, should be interesting)
Likely Republican: IA (R+10.7...should remain Republican but not a poll since early May when the Dem seemed to be making up ground)
IN (R+16.5...Bayh was the only shot Dems had in my opinion, this seat will most likely go back to GOP haven't seen a poll in awhile though)
LA (almost no polling, especially recently, Melancon hopes hadn't looked good though, but his recent public advocacy with regard to the oil spill may increase chances, have to wait to see)
Most Likely Republican: SC (R+19...should be solid for Republicans, but DeMint is under 50 and his radicalness might make this race closer, also the only poll shows most people do not know the Dem challenger)
AZ (R+29...very safe with McCain, but if Hayworth win he may have the same problem as DeMint, he is still up R+16)
Safe Republican: AL (R+25.5), GA (R+27), AK, ID, UT, SD, KS, OK, DE (Horrible to see this seat switch, would like to see a poll still), ND (Very sad to see Dorgan retire, and to lose this seat)
So...what would the Senate look like under this current forecast...Dems: 54 GOP: 46...Dems lose/GOP Gain: DE, ND, IN, AR, IL, PA...Dems Gain/GOP Lose: OH
Its still very early, and a lot can happen things are already swinging back toward the Democrats, Congressionally at least, so we'll see what happens. Hope you found this somewhat insightful.
Safe Democrat: VT, MD, HI, NY-A (Schumer), NY-B (Gillibrand +24), OR (+13)
Very Likely Democrat: CT(Blumenthal +20)
Leans Democrat: CA (+6.5)
WA (+3)
WI (+2..but very little polling, and I don't quite trust it)
Toss-Up: CO (D+2.5)
NV (D+4.5..this is if Angle wins, if either other candidate wins it will be much closer but they're both about D+1)
OH (D+1.6)
PA (R+.5...this just switched back R after a RAS poll that was off base with others, right now i would rate this a tossup but give the edge to Sestak)
MO (R+1.2...just got a new poll showing this race super tight, still give edge to Reps though)
IL (R+3.3...no polling since the Kirk fumble-a-thon, so likely to change)
NC (R+1.5...this is with Elaine Marshall, she's in a run-off with Cal Cunningham, Cunningham right now gives this a R+5.3, could be a surprise pick up for Dems)
KY (R+8.1...inflated because of a RAS poll that was most definitely an outlier, should be closer, still give Rep an edge)
Leans Republican: NH (R+11.8...I can't believe Ayotte's numbers being this high in a state like NH I see this getting closer)
AR (R+15 with Halter, +23 with Boozman...very uphill for Dems but it is a Dem seat, hopefully Halter can pull one out)
FL (R+2 over Indy, R+16 over Dem...either way Rubio is stalling out, and Crist could caucus with the Dems after his nasty fight with GOPers in Florida and nationally, should be interesting)
Likely Republican: IA (R+10.7...should remain Republican but not a poll since early May when the Dem seemed to be making up ground)
IN (R+16.5...Bayh was the only shot Dems had in my opinion, this seat will most likely go back to GOP haven't seen a poll in awhile though)
LA (almost no polling, especially recently, Melancon hopes hadn't looked good though, but his recent public advocacy with regard to the oil spill may increase chances, have to wait to see)
Most Likely Republican: SC (R+19...should be solid for Republicans, but DeMint is under 50 and his radicalness might make this race closer, also the only poll shows most people do not know the Dem challenger)
AZ (R+29...very safe with McCain, but if Hayworth win he may have the same problem as DeMint, he is still up R+16)
Safe Republican: AL (R+25.5), GA (R+27), AK, ID, UT, SD, KS, OK, DE (Horrible to see this seat switch, would like to see a poll still), ND (Very sad to see Dorgan retire, and to lose this seat)
So...what would the Senate look like under this current forecast...Dems: 54 GOP: 46...Dems lose/GOP Gain: DE, ND, IN, AR, IL, PA...Dems Gain/GOP Lose: OH
Its still very early, and a lot can happen things are already swinging back toward the Democrats, Congressionally at least, so we'll see what happens. Hope you found this somewhat insightful.
Wednesday, May 13, 2009
Working for the American People
Today there was a vote on the floor of the Senate to basically cap interest rates on credit cards, the details of which can be found here. Well, in the end the amendment to the wide ranging credit card reform bill, was defeated by a sizable margin, 33-60. This is very disheartening, on several grounds. One, it shows clearly that banks seem to have a strangle hold on Congress, if not on our government at large. Why would all of these Senators, Democrats and Republicans both (although the Democrats voted 33-22 in favor to the Republicans 0-38), vote against against this amendment, when it would seemingly give the American people a direct benefit, and safeguard against the whims of the banking industry?
Whatever reason one could find to justify voting against this legislation, particularly if you're a Democrat, who are supposedly fighting against big business and corporations, there is no justification for doing so, either politically or practically. This legislation, would have benefited the American people and that is it, and would have shown the country that Congress truly is on the side of the average citizen and not the big banks or big business in any way. This would have appealed to populists on both side of the isle, and of course with liberal Democrats who always favor sticking it to the man. But for some reason there are those who still fear those in power of large sums of money, and these people simply are missing the point, they are in Congress to fight for the American people, particularly those hard hit by this recession, not corporate fat cats.
Lastly, there are some who say that they are doing this in order to give the big bill a better shot at passing the Senate when it comes to a vote. While it is important to get legislation passed and not be hyper partisan to the point where it halts progress; however, Democrats can not compromise to the point where they make good bills bad, where the make what could be really effective bills into paper tigers. It is apparent given the Republican party's current state of mind, that it will be difficult to get a good deal of their support on almost any legislation backed by Democrats. Given this, it makes no sense to compromise the party's morals for the sake of bipartisanship, when in fact in the end there is little chance that it will receive Republican support.
In the end these Senators, the 22 Democrats and 38 Republicans, must realize what they were elected for, and stand up for the American people, especially those who can't stand up for themselves, those who are most affected by the seemingly ever increasing credit card rates. Those who have little wealth, are forced to borrow, and buy on credit, whether its for food, payments on their homes, or apartments, or to pay for the never ending amount of bills that need to payed. This is who this legislation affects, and due to the selfish acts of these 60 politicians, Democrats, who I fully support on many other issues, they will suffer and be victims of the system again and again.
Whatever reason one could find to justify voting against this legislation, particularly if you're a Democrat, who are supposedly fighting against big business and corporations, there is no justification for doing so, either politically or practically. This legislation, would have benefited the American people and that is it, and would have shown the country that Congress truly is on the side of the average citizen and not the big banks or big business in any way. This would have appealed to populists on both side of the isle, and of course with liberal Democrats who always favor sticking it to the man. But for some reason there are those who still fear those in power of large sums of money, and these people simply are missing the point, they are in Congress to fight for the American people, particularly those hard hit by this recession, not corporate fat cats.
Lastly, there are some who say that they are doing this in order to give the big bill a better shot at passing the Senate when it comes to a vote. While it is important to get legislation passed and not be hyper partisan to the point where it halts progress; however, Democrats can not compromise to the point where they make good bills bad, where the make what could be really effective bills into paper tigers. It is apparent given the Republican party's current state of mind, that it will be difficult to get a good deal of their support on almost any legislation backed by Democrats. Given this, it makes no sense to compromise the party's morals for the sake of bipartisanship, when in fact in the end there is little chance that it will receive Republican support.
In the end these Senators, the 22 Democrats and 38 Republicans, must realize what they were elected for, and stand up for the American people, especially those who can't stand up for themselves, those who are most affected by the seemingly ever increasing credit card rates. Those who have little wealth, are forced to borrow, and buy on credit, whether its for food, payments on their homes, or apartments, or to pay for the never ending amount of bills that need to payed. This is who this legislation affects, and due to the selfish acts of these 60 politicians, Democrats, who I fully support on many other issues, they will suffer and be victims of the system again and again.
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