10/31/11 Happy Halloween Polling Update

Happy Halloween everybody!! I'll be dressing up a bit later, so I decided to get the daily polling update out of the way.  We have a pretty rich polling update today, including the standard daily tracking polls, new state polls of Wisconsin, Texas and Washington, with some very mixed results for the President.


1) Obama Approval - Gallup 1500 Adults 10/28-10/30, 43% approve, 50% disapprove...Obama= no change in  approval/disapproval (net no change)


2) Obama Approval - Rasmussen 1500 LV 10/28-10/30, 45% approve, 54% disapprove...Obama= -1% approval, +1% disapproval (net -2%)


3) Texas President - University of Texas 800 RV 10/19-10/26

• 34% Obama, 36% Romney
• 37% Obama, 45% Perry
• 35% Obama, 40% Cain
• 33% Obama, 38% Paul

These are some pretty promising results for Barack Obama in Texas.  He runs within five points of most of the candidates, and trails the current governor of the state by eight points.  However, two things concern me, the poll is of all registered voters, something which usually benefits Democrats as there are usually more registered Dems who don't get out to the polls.  Also, in each poll there are around twenty to thirty percent undecided voters, which is high meaning one of two things...most undecideds will break Republican as the state is obviously more conservative than not, or most people are not really engaged in the process.  Either way, to see President Obama this close in a state that hasn't gone Democratic in years is something that could make Democrats hopeful.

4) Texas GOP Primary - University of Texas 395 RV 10/19-10/26, 27% Cain, 26% Perry, 12% Paul, 9% Romney, 8% Gingrich, 2% Bachmann, 1% Santorum, 1% Huntsman

Once again Herman Cain is at the top of a state GOP primary poll.  The last poll of likely Texas Republican primary goers showed Perry with a thirty-five to forty point lead. However, as with most polls he has plummeted pretty markedly, and not winning his own state would be a big blow to the Perry campaign.  Look for these two to make a race out of the sate, Romney has very little chance here regardless of Cain's successes or failures.

5) Wisconsin President - Wisconsin Policy Research Institute 650 Adults 10/23-10/26

• 46% Obama, 35% Romney
• 48% Obama, 30% Perry
• 50% Obama, 31% Cain

6) Wisconsin President - Rasmussen 500 LV 10/26

• 45% Obama, 41% Romney
• 42% Obama, 46% Perry
• 47% Obama, 42% Cain

There are two conflicting polls in the Wisconsin race, one showing Obama with huge leads, particularly against Perry or Cain.  The other, from Rasmussen, shows a much tighter race, with Perry even leading, something which I see as incredibly unlikely, as this is the FIRST time I've seen Perry leading any race outside of a state which went Republican in 2008.  All things considered these races are most likely somewhere between what these polls say.  My current average shows Wisconsin to be a state which leans Obama regardless of the candidate ( +5 on Romney, +10 on Perry, and +13 on Cain).  Rasmussen has done very little state polling at this part in the cycle, and in past cycles has seen a strong bias toward Republican candidates.

7)  Washington President - University of Washington 938 RV 10/10-10/30

• 50% Obama, 41% Romney
• 54% Obama, 41% Perry

Washington seems to be a pretty safe state for the President.  Overall, they approve of him by a margin of 52-43% and are not as mad at the federal government as the rest of the country.  These results are in line with previous polls of the state, and will probably be in the Democratic column once again come November 2012.