The Iowa GOP Not Giving Up on Cain ~ 11/7/2011

So this past weekend I posted two race prediction posts for either an Obama/Romney or Obama/Perry general election in 2012.  Both showed President Obama doing fairly well in the face of strong head winds.  As a result, I got some flack from certain commenters on the DailyKos for painting to 'rosy' of a picture.  I want to state again that my race ratings and predictions are based on calculated averages of polling data based on the polls' recentness, sample size and the quality of the pollster.  The results which I reported on my posts are a product of these calculations, so if you are to believe the predictions are 'too left' or biased, I say...look at the state polls.

Now for today's daily (or almost daily) polling up date...


1) Obama Approval - Gallup 1500 Adults 11/4-11/6, 43% approve, 50% disapprove...Obama= +1% approval, +/-0% disapproval (net +1% Obama) 


2) Obama Approval - Rasmussen 1500 LV 11/4-11/6, 47% approve, 52% disapprove...Obama= +2% approval, -1% disapproval (net +3% Obama)


These are two pretty good results for the President.  Particularly, when one looks at the Rasmussen poll, Obama has his best performance (only down 5) since early August of this year, save one day in early October. What's even more interesting is that his strongly approve/strongly disapprove numbers are getting increasingly better, something that may show the Democratic base may be rallying around the President and picking up enthusiasm as we head into 2012.  

                                      My Average: 43.4% Approval, 51.9% Disapproval

For the states...


3) Iowa GOP Caucus- Insider Advantage 507 LV 11/3. 30% Cain, 15% Romney, 12% Gingrich, 9% Paul, 8% Bachmann, 6% Perry, 2% Huntsman


4) Iowa GOP Caucus- We Ask America 864 LV 22% Cain, 18% Gingrich, 15% Romney, 11% Bachmann, 11% Paul, 4% Perry, 3% Santorum, 2% Huntsman


A couple of things to note...

• Cain continues to lead...Everyone seems to believe that the sex harassment scandal will hurt Herman Cain; however, I continue to say, as I have since last week, that I don't believe this will have much of an effect on Cain.  The conservative media is rallying around Cain and painting him as a victim of the 'liberal media,' and let's face it there are many conservative men who may not care whether the accusations are true or not.

• Perry is sinking even faster...He is now in 6th place in both of these polls, behind Bachmann and Paul, yet the media still believe he will be a factor in the nomination because of his 'money.'  However, he's getting very close to Santorum/Hunstman territory which is not a good sign for his campaign, making Gingrich seem much more viable than Perry in many of the key early states. 

Iowa GOP Average: 22.3% Cain, 19.3% Romney, 10.9% Gingrich, 11.2% Paul, 9.8% Bachmann, 8.6% Perry, 3.5% Santorum, 1.7% Huntsman

Obama v. Perry 2012 Predictions

Yesterday I laid out what is probably the most likely scenario for the 2012 general election for president, Obama v. Romney.  Today I will focus on Rick Perry's chances against Obama as of today, November 6, 2011.  Although Perry's numbers are low, many think he is the second most likely Republican nominee due to the amount of money he has on hand, and the establishment 'cred' he has in the GOP.

Obama v. Perry
Due to Perry's 'late' entry into the race in August, there is not the same amount of polling as with Romney, so more of this prediction is conjecture, but the numbers also speak for themselves.  Here is how I see the race as of right now.

SAFE DEMOCRATIC-232        LIKELY DEMOCRATIC-94          LEANS DEMOCRATIC-32
Hawaii (D+35) 4                          Wisconsin (D+10.6) 10               North Carolina (D+5.7) 15
Massachusetts (D+32.4) 11         Nevada (D+9.9) 6                       New Hampshire (D+5) 4
Vermont (D+29) 3                       Iowa (D+9.5) 6                          Virginia (D+3.3) 13
New York (D+29.8) 29               Ohio (D+9.1) 18                      
California (D+21) 55                    Florida (D+9) 29
Illinois (D+20.4) 20                     Arizona (D+6) 11
Michigan (D+20.2) 16                 Colorado 9
Maine (D+18.4) 4                       New Mexico 5
Connecticut (D+16) 7
Washington (D+13.3) 12
New Jersey (D+13) 14
Pennsylvania (D+11.5) 20
Minnesota 10                  
Oregon 7
Delaware 3
Maryland 10
Rhode Island 4
Washington, DC 3



TOSS UP-19
South Carolina (R+1.6) 9
Missouri (R+2) 10

SAFE REPUBLICAN-65             LIKELY REPUBLICAN-66              LEANS REPUBLICAN-30
 Louisiana (R+15) 8                          Kentucky (R+7) 8                               Georgia 16
West Virginia (R+14.6) 5                  Nebraska (R+7) 5                               Indiana 11
 Tennessee (R+15) 11                     Texas (R+7.2) 38                                 Montana 3                
Alabama 9                                      South Dakota (R+6) 3                               
Arkansas 6                                     Alaska 3
Idaho 4                                          North Dakota 3         
Kansas 6                                        Mississippi 6
Oklahoma 7
Wyoming 3
Utah 6

The states without D+ or R+ have not had any polling data up to this point in the cycle and I have handicapped them based on past voting trends, while taking into account the candidates and how they (or similar candidates) may have performed in these states in the past.

Not counting the TOSS UP states, the current electoral vote totals would be: Obama 358, Perry 161, Toss up 19...My popular vote results would be ~49% Obama to ~38% Perry, with still 13% remaining undecided, leaving a lot of room for either side; however, its important to note that Obama has an 11 point lead and is just about at 50%.  He would be in a much better position with Perry as the nominee compared to Romney, as Perry turns out to be a more polarizing figure, with most people not liking him.  To see South Carolina in the Toss Up category is staggering, but really shows the amount of space Perry has to make up, even in the south.

As with Romney, Arizona is probably more of a toss up, but the only current polling data shows Obama leading.  I would expect VA, FL, OH and NC to be closer because the GOP base will coalesce, but I still think Obama would win these states.  Once again, I'm really interested in what the polling data says for Indiana and Georgia, but no one has polled them recently.

I am strongly favoring Obama for reelection should Perry be the nominee. All things considered, giving this data, I have him leading 358 to 180.  

Obama v. Romney 2012 Predictions

The general election for the presidency of the United States in 2012 will be one of the most hotly contested races.  The political cable news media is only getting more intense, and the bases on both sides will be very aggressive in terms of advocating for their candidate (probably).  As of today, November 5, 2011, three scenarios seem most likely 1) Obama v. Romney, 2) Obama v. Perry, or 3) Obama v. Cain.  I have compiled state polling data on each of these three races (among others) and as a result have the following race ratings/predictions for each scenario.  Today I will focus on Obama v. Romney and the numbers.

Obama v. Romney
Most people in politics and the political media believe Romney will be the eventual nominee of the Republican party.  Also, he has been in the race for president since 2007.  As a result, the Obama/Romney race has been the most polled in the individual states.  Here is how I see the race as of right now.

SAFE DEMOCRATIC-159        LIKELY DEMOCRATIC-67          LEANS DEMOCRATIC-47
Hawaii (D+27) 4                          Michigan (D+10.2) 16                Wisconsin (D+5.2) 10
New York (D+21) 29                    Washington (D+9.1) 12              Pennsylvania (D+4.9) 20
Vermont (D+20) 3                        Connecticut (D+8.3) 7               Arizona (D+4.8) 11
Massachusetts (D+19.4) 11          Maine (D+7.3) 4                        Iowa (D+3.7) 6
Rhode Island (D+17) 4                 New Mexico (D+7) 5
California (D+15.4) 55                  Colorado (D+7) 9
Minnesota (D+15) 10                    New Jersey (D+6.5) 14
Oregon (D+12) 7
Illinois (D+11.5) 20
Delaware 3
Maryland 10
Washington, DC 3


TOSS UP-81
Ohio (D+2.7) 18
North Carolina (D+0.5) 15
Florida (D+0.3) 29
Nevada (D+0.1) 6
Virginia (R+2.0) 13

SAFE REPUBLICAN-70             LIKELY REPUBLICAN-39              LEANS REPUBLICAN-75
Utah (R+32) 6                              New Hampshire (R+8.6) 4             Missouri (R+3.9) 10
West Virginia (R+18.4) 5               Kentucky (R+8) 8                          Texas (R+3.3) 38
Louisiana (R+16) 8                       Montana (R+8) 3                           Georgia (R+3) 16
Tennessee (R+15) 11                    South Carolina (R+6.8) 9                Indiana 11
Nebraska (R+13) 5                       South Dakota (R+6) 3
Alabama 9                                    Mississippi (R+6) 6
Arkansas 6                                    Alaska 3
Idaho 4                                         North Dakota 3          
Kansas 6
Oklahoma 7
Wyoming 3

The states without D+ or R+ have not had any polling data up to this point in the cycle and I have handicapped them based on past voting trends, while taking into account the candidates and how they (or similar candidates) may have performed in these states in the past.

Not counting the TOSS UP states, the current electoral vote totals would be: Obama 273, Romney 184, Toss up 81...meaning that even if Obama lost OH, NC, FL, NV, VA, NH, and IN...if he can hold PA, WI, and IA and take AZ he will win reelection, but just barely.  My popular vote results would be ~46% Obama to ~41% Romney, with still 13% remaining undecided, leaving a lot of room for either side; however, its important to note that Obama only needs ~30% of those undecideds to get back to 50%.

Arizona is probably more of a toss up, but the only current polling data shows Obama leading.  I would also expect NH to come closer to the Democratic side.  I'm really interested in what the polling data says for Indiana and Georgia, but no one has polled them recently.  If Texas comes into play, then I would say the election would be over.

I am definitely favoring Obama for reelection, all things considered, giving this data, I have him leading 341 to 197.   

Good Polling for Obama Continues ~ 11/3/11

Today's polls once again are a great sign for the Obama campaign, the White House, and Congressional Democrats that the American people are starting to get sick of the Republican candidates already and taking another look at Obama and realizing the degree to which he is attempting to do right by the American people.

First, his approval numbers...

1) Obama Approval - Gallup 1500 Adults 10/31-11/2, 44% approve, 49% disapprove...Obama= -1% approval, +1% disapproval (net -2% Obama) 


2) Obama Approval - Rasmussen 1500 LV 10/30-11/1, 46% approve, 52% disapprove...Obama= +2% approval, -3% disapproval (net +5% Obama)


3) Obama Approval - YouGov 1000 Adults 10/29-11/1, 41% approve, 52% disapprove...Obama= -1% approval, -3% disapproval (net -4% Obama)

My Average: 43.2% Approval, 51.9% Disapproval

Obama's approval numbers continue to inch up slowly and is beginning to hit and stay steady in the low to mid 40s as opposed to the high 30s/low 40s.  The Rasmussen number suggests an even greater uptick as they usual favor Republicans.  Also, the YouGov poll usually shows Obama at low numbers regardless of the situation and is an internet poll, something which I believe gives it less credibility and makes it more subject to passionate supporters/dissenters who actively choose to participate.  I believe this trend will continue.  

For the states...

4) Pennsylvania President - Franklin & Marshall 419 RV 10/24-10/30

• 35% Obama, 26% Romney
• 40% Obama, 20% Perry
• 38% Obama, 24% Cain
• 38% Obama, 25% Santorum

Like most F&M polls there are a large amount of undecideds; however, there are several important things to note. One, Obama is up in Pennsylvania a state which is key to a Democratic victory, and one which the Dems need to hold onto (and probably will) in order to win.  Also, Obama has increased his standing, when compared to one of the Republican candidates, in all circumstances since the last time Pennsylvania was polled.  Lastly, if Romney is not the nominee, count Pennsylvania as a LIKELY DEMOCRATIC state, as the other candidates are not viable, otherwise its LEAN DEMOCRATIC. 

AVERAGES: 42.4% Obama, 37.5% Romney (Obama +4.9)

                    44.8% Obama, 33.2% Perry (Obama +11.6)

                    39.0% Obama, 25.2% Cain (Obama +13.8)

PREDICTIONS: Obama v. Romney >> Obama +6-8

                         Obama v. Perry >> Obama +10-15

                         Obama v. Cain >> Obama +12-17

5) New York President - Marist 855 RV 10/25-10/27

• 59% Obama, 35% Romney
• 64% Obama, 29% Perry
• 62% Obama, 31% Cain

New York is and will continue to be a SAFE DEMOCRATIC state.  Even with an approval rating in the mid 40s in the state, Obama blows out all of his prospective opponents.  What is important to note is that his numbers are continuing to rise as they are nationally.

AVERAGES: 56.9% Obama, 35.9% Romney (Obama +21)

                    60.2% Obama, 30.4% Perry (Obama +29.8)

                    62.0% Obama, 31.0% Cain (Obama +31)

PREDICTIONS: Obama v. Romney >> Obama +15-25

                         Obama v. Perry >> Obama +25-30

                         Obama v. Cain >> Obama +25-30

6) Maine Senate - Public Policy Polling 673 LV 10/28-10/31

• 64% Snowe (R), 22% Dunlap (D)
• 65% Snowe (R), 18% Hinck (D)
• 54% Snowe (R), 37% Michaud (D)
• 55% Snowe (R), 36% Pingree (D)
• 31% Dunlap (D), 23% D'Amboise (R)
• 26% D'Amboise (R), 25% Hinck (D)
• 30% Dunlap (D), 25% Dodge (R)
• 27% Hinck (D), 25% Dodge (R)

Should Snowe survive a primary fight, which I believe she will, this seat will be a SAFE REPUBLICAN hold.  Only Dunlap and Hinck are announced candidates on the Democratic side and she leads them both by what are seemingly insurmountable margins.  A moderate might actually survive!! We'll see if the tea party will throw money into this seat and rally behind one of the alternatives, D'Amboise or Dodge, but I don't see it happening right now.

A new feature...Generic Congressional Ballot Questions!  Starting today, I will be adding generic congressional ballot questions to my polling analysis as it seems more and more likely that the US House may switch back to Democratic control.  Therefore, similar to what I do with the rest of the polls I report on, I will provide my analysis and understanding of these polls.

7) Congressional Ballot - YouGov RV 10/29-11/1, 39% Democratic, 36% Republican

Democrats look like they will be aggressive in trying to win back the House and I would give them better than a 50-50 shot to do so.

To sum it all up...

• Mixed approval numbers for Obama, but they continue to tick up slowly
• Good state polls in PA and NY for Obama, as his re-election numbers rise in both states
• Snowe looks increasingly safe in Maine
• Dems are aggressive about the House and may get it back

11/2/11 Obama's Up and Cain Surviving

Today's polling data came fast and early with a flurry of both state and national polls from various organizations which help to both clarify and muddy the 2012 election picture.  So what do these polls mean? Here's my take, as usual.


1) Obama Approval - Gallup 1500 Adults 10/30-11/1, 45% approve, 48% disapprove...Obama= +2% approval, -2% disapproval (net +4%) 


2) Obama Approval - Rasmussen 1500 LV 10/30-11/1, 44% approve, 55% disapprove...Obama=no change in approval/disapproval (no net change)


3) Obama Approval - Quinnipiac 2294 RV 10/27-10/30, 47% approve, 49% disapprove...Obama= +6% approval, -6% disapproval (net +12%)


While Rasmussen shows the President remaining at a negative eleven percent approval rating, the approval number is still at 44% which is not horrible for the president given the state of the economy and negative attitudes throughout the country.  Additionally, the Quinnipiac and Gallup polls bring great news to the White House as they show a twelve and four point turn around for the President nationally since their last polls, Quinnipiac's being around one month ago.  It will be essential for Obama's approval be near fifty percent, and this is just another poll showing that Obama is gaining traction with the public, and that the American people are waking up and beginning to see more and more who is really fighting for them, and who is blocking any progression.


I still see December as the month where Obama's numbers will really start to pick up. The next few days will also be telling as to whether Obama's approval will increase further as the Congress will vote on an infrastructure portion of the original jobs bill and the unemployment numbers will be released.  I think on the first issue, Obama wins either way as he will either get the bill passed, which will create jobs and show the President's policies work OR it gets voted down and the Republicans continue to be obstructionists, and Obama is seen as working for the American people, and caring, something which means more than you might think.

And now the state polls, both presidential and GOP primary....


4) Florida President - Suffolk/7News 800 RV 10/26-10/30

• 42% Obama, 42% Romney
• 46% Obama, 34% Perry
• 42% Obama, 39% Cain
• 45% Obama, 38% Gingrich
• 44% Obama, 32% Paul

Florida is going to be one of the closest state races should Mitt Romney win the Republican nomination.  If any other candidate becomes the Republican nominee I would immediately say that Florida would Lean Democratic, something which I would believe of most of the toss up states should Romney not win the GOP nomination.  

Right now, my polling average shows the race almost a dead heat...Obama 43.77% v. Romney 43.48% (Obama +0.29%).  Continue to see the polling in this state to see saw a couple points between the candidates, but if Obama's continues as it has been look for Obama to be ahead of Romney by ~3-5% points.

5) Florida GOP Primary - Suffolk/7News 287 RV 10/26-10/30, 25% Romney, 24% Cain, 11% Gingrich, 9% Perry, 5% Paul, 2% Huntsman, 1% Bachmann, 1% Santorum

6) South Carolina GOP Primary - Rasmussen 770 LV 11/1, 33% Cain, 23% Romney, 15% Gingrich, 9% Perry, 5% Paul, 2% Bachmann, 1% Huntsman, 1% Santorum

Both of these polls show the same thing, something which I pointed out yesterday.  Romney is stagnant.  His numbers are not moving up or down in any way and it seems his support in these two key states is stuck around 30% and 25% respectively.  In contrast, Cain has ticked up slightly in Florida and by a large degree in South Carolina, where he has now taken the lead.  What is more interesting to note is that the Rasmussen poll was taken the day after the sexual harassment story broke, and up to now, it seems to have had no effect, as I predicted yesterday.  Perry is still plummeting and I don't see him picking up steam at all.  Gingrich is ticking up as well and was third place in both of these polls, the one on one debate between Cain and Gingrich will be very interesting to watch, as they seem to have very similar voters (e.g. angry, passionate, very anti-Obama, etc.).  Don't count out Cain yet.

7) North Carolina President - Public Policy Polling 615 LV 10/27-10/31

• 45% Obama, 46% Romney
• 50% Obama, 42% Perry
• 47% Obama, 44% Cain
• 50% Obama, 43% Gingrich
• 48% Obama, 40% Paul
• 50% Obama, 42% Bachmann

Like Florida, I see North Carolina being a toss up if Romney is the nominee, and a Lean Democratic state should any other candidate get the GOP nomination.  The state has been trending Democratic and is one which the Obama 2012 team really wants to keep in the Democratic column.  I would even say that it seems more likely that Obama will win NC, than states such as FL, NV, VA, or NH given the current standing of the president, and that Romney is the nominee.  However, I would say that the president's approval had been at an all time low, and as a Republican nominee emerges, the Democratic message will coalesce and I would imagine Obama's numbers to rise.  

Right now, the race between Obama and Romney stands at...Obama 45.34% v. Romney 44.80% (Obama +0.54%).  I would predict Obama winning NC by ~2% if Romney is the nominee, and by 5-8% should any other GOP candidate be the nominee.  

11/1/11 - Tuesday Polling Update - Cain Continues to Ride High

Today's polls provide show us that Herman Cain's support may be a lot more widespread than we thought, and that Mitt Romney, while to most sensible choice is still having a tough time garnering support, even in his own neck of the woods.

Starting off, the President's Approval numbers seem stagnant this week, not moving much in either direction.

1) Obama Approval - Gallup 1500 Adults 10/29-10/31, 43% approve, 50% disapprove...Obama= no change in  approval/disapproval (net no change)


2) Obama Approval - Rasmussen 1500 LV 10/29-10/31, 44% approve, 55% disapprove...Obama= -1% approval, +1% disapproval (net -2%)


3) Obama Approval - PPP/Daily Kos 1000 RV 10/27-10/30, 42% approve, 53% disapprove...Obama= -2% approval, +2% disapproval (net -4%)


As I said, I think that stagnant is the best word to possibly describe the President's approval ratings.  Right now, they're not increasing; however, they are not sinking to the same level which they would in the dog days of the summer.  If the media picks up more on the implementation of the executive announcements which are beginning to be signed this week, and people get a better sense of his urgency with regard to boosting the economy, I see his numbers ticking up but very slowly.  Additionally, it seems that the White House is doing somewhat of a media blitz to inform people of the significance of the aforementioned announcements.  Also, the jobs number will be telling on Friday and could either inflate the public's mood or depress it depending on the number, I predict the former.

Now the state Republican primary polling...

4) Maine GOP Primary - Public Policy Polling 250 LV 10/28-10/31, 29% Cain, 24% Romney, 18% Gingrich, 5% Bachmann, 5% Paul, 4% Perry, 2% Santorum, 1% Huntsman

Once again, Herman Cain finds himself at the top of a state primary poll.  What's even more surprising is that it is in the North East, a region which many thought Mitt Romney had sewn up.  However, Maine, like New Hampshire, is a very quirky state and can have a lot more conservative tendencies, than say states like Connecticut, Rhode Island, Massachusetts, and of course Vermont.  While this poll was taken before the Cain sex harassment story blew up in the media, it is still very telling about the amount of support Cain has built up throughout the country.  It is also a definite hit to Mitt Romney.  Conservatives simply don't trust him to be an advocate for their policies and ideals, and as a result they are looking for another candidate to fulfill those needs, and right now Cain is their man.  Most seem to think that this most recent scandal will hurt Cain; however, I believe that it will not, and for one simple reason...conservative media.  Conservative media has rallied around Cain and see this story as another example of the liberal media elite stereotyping an African American conservative.  As with in most cases, I believe their flock will follow them, and Cain will not be damaged by this story, and if he is it will be only minimal. 

5) Maine Senate GOP Primary - Public Policy Polling 250 LV 10/28-10/31, 62% Olympia Snowe (incumbent), 10% Scott D'Amboise, 7% Andrew Ian Dodge

Snowe looks a lot safer than she has in the past.  I personally believe that if she has ONE conservative challenger, and the more conservative members of the Maine GOP rally around that person, then that person would give Snowe a run for her money.  However, it doesn't seem like that will happen at this moment, so as of now I would bet on Snowe being the nominee, which makes it VERY LIKELY that this seat would stay REPUBLICAN.

5) North Carolina GOP Primary - Public Policy Polling 474 LV 10/27-10/31, 30% Cain, 22% Gingrich, 19% Romney, 10% Perry, 4% Bachmann, 4% Paul, 2% Huntsman, 2% Santorum

This is the second time PPP has polled North Carolina since his surge in the polls, and his numbers have only increased.  I don't see this being a state in which Romney has a good shot at winning.  While the results of the primary may have nothing to do with who wins the nomination (it won't be held until May 8, 2012), the poll is still a good way to show the attitudes of southern voters, and once again, one thing is clear...they are not happy with Mitt Romney as a possible nominee.  Even more so, BOTH the Maine and North Carolina polls show that Romney isn't even the second choice for a large majority of those who claim to support Cain.  Most of these likely primary voters like Gingrich should Cain not be the nominee, and if Cain does implode it would be interesting to see if Gingrich could rally that support to his side and turn out to be a contender, even after the disastrous roll out his campaign had.  Even noting that Gingrich has a shot, says something really bad about the Republican party, and shows that they are not in a strong position for 2012, and that the person who would have the best shot at defeating Obama (i.e. Romney), is the one they like the least.   

10/31/11 Happy Halloween Polling Update

Happy Halloween everybody!! I'll be dressing up a bit later, so I decided to get the daily polling update out of the way.  We have a pretty rich polling update today, including the standard daily tracking polls, new state polls of Wisconsin, Texas and Washington, with some very mixed results for the President.


1) Obama Approval - Gallup 1500 Adults 10/28-10/30, 43% approve, 50% disapprove...Obama= no change in  approval/disapproval (net no change)


2) Obama Approval - Rasmussen 1500 LV 10/28-10/30, 45% approve, 54% disapprove...Obama= -1% approval, +1% disapproval (net -2%)


3) Texas President - University of Texas 800 RV 10/19-10/26

• 34% Obama, 36% Romney
• 37% Obama, 45% Perry
• 35% Obama, 40% Cain
• 33% Obama, 38% Paul

These are some pretty promising results for Barack Obama in Texas.  He runs within five points of most of the candidates, and trails the current governor of the state by eight points.  However, two things concern me, the poll is of all registered voters, something which usually benefits Democrats as there are usually more registered Dems who don't get out to the polls.  Also, in each poll there are around twenty to thirty percent undecided voters, which is high meaning one of two things...most undecideds will break Republican as the state is obviously more conservative than not, or most people are not really engaged in the process.  Either way, to see President Obama this close in a state that hasn't gone Democratic in years is something that could make Democrats hopeful.

4) Texas GOP Primary - University of Texas 395 RV 10/19-10/26, 27% Cain, 26% Perry, 12% Paul, 9% Romney, 8% Gingrich, 2% Bachmann, 1% Santorum, 1% Huntsman

Once again Herman Cain is at the top of a state GOP primary poll.  The last poll of likely Texas Republican primary goers showed Perry with a thirty-five to forty point lead. However, as with most polls he has plummeted pretty markedly, and not winning his own state would be a big blow to the Perry campaign.  Look for these two to make a race out of the sate, Romney has very little chance here regardless of Cain's successes or failures.

5) Wisconsin President - Wisconsin Policy Research Institute 650 Adults 10/23-10/26

• 46% Obama, 35% Romney
• 48% Obama, 30% Perry
• 50% Obama, 31% Cain

6) Wisconsin President - Rasmussen 500 LV 10/26

• 45% Obama, 41% Romney
• 42% Obama, 46% Perry
• 47% Obama, 42% Cain

There are two conflicting polls in the Wisconsin race, one showing Obama with huge leads, particularly against Perry or Cain.  The other, from Rasmussen, shows a much tighter race, with Perry even leading, something which I see as incredibly unlikely, as this is the FIRST time I've seen Perry leading any race outside of a state which went Republican in 2008.  All things considered these races are most likely somewhere between what these polls say.  My current average shows Wisconsin to be a state which leans Obama regardless of the candidate ( +5 on Romney, +10 on Perry, and +13 on Cain).  Rasmussen has done very little state polling at this part in the cycle, and in past cycles has seen a strong bias toward Republican candidates.

7)  Washington President - University of Washington 938 RV 10/10-10/30

• 50% Obama, 41% Romney
• 54% Obama, 41% Perry

Washington seems to be a pretty safe state for the President.  Overall, they approve of him by a margin of 52-43% and are not as mad at the federal government as the rest of the country.  These results are in line with previous polls of the state, and will probably be in the Democratic column once again come November 2012.

10/30/11 Sunday Polling Update

Only three polls of note today, two on the president's approval rating and one on the GOP race in Iowa.

1) Obama Approval - Gallup 1500 Adults 10/27-10/29, 43% approve, 50% disapprove...Obama= +1% approval, -1% disapproval (net +2%)

2) Obama Approval - Rasmussen 1500 LV 10/27-10/29, 46% approve, 53% disapprove...Obama= no change approval, +1% disapproval (net -1%)

3) Iowa Caucus - Selzer & Co. (Des Moines Register) 400 LV 10/23-10/26, 23% Cain, 22% Romney, 12% Paul, 8% Bachmann, 7% Gingrich, 7% Perry, 5% Santorum, 1% Hunstman

Obama has a net approval rating of negative seven percent in both daily tracking approval polls, showing once again that his standing is increasing steadily, albeit at a predictably slow rate.  Even Rasmussen has him at 46% and a deeper look at their poll shows that is strongly approve/disapprove numbers are even climbing slowly.  With regard to the IA Caucus, please read my earlier post on Herman Cain and his unyielding position at the top of the GOP primary field.

10/29/11 Saturday Polling Update!

So a normal slow polling Saturday gives us two polls, both daily tracking polls of the president's approval/disapproval...

1) Gallup 1500 Adults 10/26-10/28, 42% approve, 51% disapprove

2) Rasmussen 1500 LV 10/26-10/28, 46% approve, 52% disapprove

While these aren't the best numbers, they continue to show an improvement in the president's standing. The Rasmussen poll is promising and shows a marked increase from days prior showing Friday was a good day for Obama. I expect this to continue to happen especially with the multitude of political news stories out there are about the ineptness of the GOP primary field and their party's intransigence in the Congress.

Obama's Approval by December

President Barack Obama will have a net neutral approval rating by December, and here's why.  

It has been a rough almost three years for Barack Obama.  There's no doubt that Obama has faced a great deal of scrutiny, from all angles, since the beginning of his presidency.  Additionally, since the GOP took control of the House of Representatives, it has been increasingly difficult for him to get any of his bills, initiatives, or policy plans passed in Congress.  Not surprisingly, as a consequence of this barrage of negative attention, Obama's approval ratings have suffered greatly.  

According to Gallup, from July to September, President Obama's average approval rating stood at a very weak 41%.  This was most likely a result of relatively high and stagnant unemployment, media hyped fears of a double dip recession, continual reports of low economic growth, and a Republican field taking up all of the oxygen on the news, using most of their time to denigrate the president in any way they could.  Of course, additionally, there is the constant anti-Obama/anti-government chatter that you will here wherever you go.  

However, things are starting to look up for the president.  Taking a look at the current polling data on the approval of Barack Obama's job as president, beginning in October, and extrapolating the current trend line of the these polls there is a lot of hope that these 'underwater' numbers will reverse themselves, and it will not take relatively long for this to happen.  

Obama started the month of October with an approval rating of around 41.5% with a disapproval rating of around 54% (This was found by using a logarithmic regression of over thirty polls from October 2 to October 26).  Doing some quick math would tell you that his net approval rating around negative twelve and a half percent (12.5%).  This number is not only disheartening to supporters of the President, but not a good omen when the election is thirteen months away.  However, several things have happened since the beginning of the month, and as a result so have the President's fortunes.  As of today, October 28, President Obama's approval is around 43%, with a disapproval of ~51.5%, or a net approval of negative eight and a half percent (8.5%).  This is a dramatic and impressive, but not unexpected, rebound for the president, and there are several reasons why I believe this has happened. 

Since the beginning of the month, Obama has taken out two of the world's most dangerous leaders in Anwar al-Awlaki and Muomar Khaddafi, which has only continued to strengthen his foreign policy credentials both abroad and at home.  This is proof for independents that Obama's policy can be successful, and that they may be giving him a second look.  Additionally, the President announced the that by the end of the year, all US troops will be withdrawn from Iraq, an action which a majority of American's believe is well overdue.  This move hypothetically would increase Obama's approval among a variety of different groups, from liberals and libertarians who never liked to the war, to independents and conservatives who have grown increasingly sour of the war.  

While these moves have likely helped Obama, the economy is the lead story, and what happens in the country with regards to the economy will have the greatest impact on his reelection chances and his approval ratings in general.  In that vain, there have been several recent reports and polls which have shown that the stagnancy of the economy may be coming to an end, and that the fears of a double dip recession may have been well overblown.  Last quarter, advance estimates show that the GDP grew at a rate of about 2.5%, which while not great, is much better than many thought it would be.  Additionally, a recent Gallup study showed that unemployment may have decreased by a significant rate in October, a study which the jobs report will hopefully confirm this coming Friday.  Consumers hear more positive news and as a result, have a more positive attitude about, which can only help the President.

Both domestically and with regard to foreign policy, there are concrete reasons to help understand this increase; however, I believe the political narrative has much more to do with it that anything.  If one looks at the events of the past month, several narratives emerge.  First, the President is among the people, and getting things done.  Since early September, Barack Obama has been on the road through many states all over the country promoting and explaining his jobs bill, rallying his base, and showing the American people that he is trying to get something positive done in Washington.  Additionally, Obama has shown an increasingly assertive tone by deciding to implement policy through executive order and directly confront those in Congress who continue to block progressive and positive action.  While this is happening the media is also continuing to focus on the Republican primary.  On its face, this might seem to be a benefit for the Republican candidates, as many of them will become more well known and their views will be available for public consumption.  However, it seems that the more people get to see of candidates such as Michelle Bachmann, Rick Perry, and Herman Cain, the less they like, as these candidates do not seem serious, practical, or realistic options for the presidency of the United States.  Once again, Barack Obama looks stronger compared to these candidates, and among independents becomes a more viable and practical choice for reelection. 

Given these three narratives, it is not surprising to see President Obama's approval ratings on the rise.  If the economy continues to grow, particularly through the holiday season, and the President continues to stress the importance of the passage of a comprehensive jobs bill to an increasingly intransigent Republican led House of Representatives, his approval will only continue to rise.  The trend suggests that by mid to late December, Barack Obama will have a neutral net Approval rating of approximately 45 to 46%.  If unemployment drops by an even more significant rate, and the public becomes increasingly frustrated with the GOP in Congress, look for his approval to increase by an even greater rate.  

It is easy to count out Barack Obama; however, I believe but attitude is beginning to change and people are beginning to see the real problems within our government, and understand that this President is trying to help and is trying to make things better for the middle class.

   

Obama v. Romney...The Big Picture

As of today, September 20, 2011, the Obama/Romney raced has been the most frequently and consistently polled contest since the beginning of 2011.  This is no surprise because he has been the front runner for quite a long time, and has basically been running for president since 2007.  In total, the race has been polled in 36 of the 50 states since late January of this year.  Most of the results are not too surprising; however, given the current standing of the President's approval ratings and the state of the economy, Obama seems to be in much better shape than most think he is.  The caveat to most of this data is that in several states there has been only one or two polls taken, and it is still very early in the cycle.  This is merely meant to give a snapshot understanding of where the polls have placed the two candidates as of this moment in time.

So, there is the list of the current aggregate data (in order from Obama's highest positive differential)

This current data would yield Obama 290 Electoral Votes and Romney 142 Electoral Votes.  This puts Obama over the 270 EV threshold for a victory in 2012.  This of course does not count the states which do not have any polling data to be analyzed.  If those states were to be allocated to the party which won them in the previous cycle, the final results would be Obama 341, Romney 194.  

Some of the states which are worth taking a look at, in my estimation, are Iowa, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Ohio, North Carolina, Nevada, Florida, Virginia, New Hampshire, and Missouri.

Most conventional wisdom is that some of the most traditionally Democratic states (i.e. Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Ohio) are some of the most vulnerable states for Obama to lose in 2012.  However, he is doing better in these states than the ones which he won that had been Republican (most notably North Carolina and Virginia).

Although given this polling data, Obama would win a big re-election, it is important to note that his numbers for many of the 'Toss-Up' states are in the mid-40s, which is not very high given his incumbent status.  However, one must also take into account that summers are usually a period of low polling and approval for both candidate and President Obama.  Taking all of these factors into account, along with the increasingly more populist message being taken by the president, I believe Obama is in a favorable position for the upcoming election, which is now just under 14 months away!!

More on Romney and Obama to come soon! ( The issues matter of course!)

2012 Election Predictions

Starting tomorrow, I will unveil my current view (for what it's worth) of the 2012 landscape, based primarily on polling data from recent weeks and months.  My focus will be on general election match-ups.  Given the wide variety of GOP candidates and hopefuls, and the limited amount of time which I can devote to this hobby of mine, I will focus on the following races in particular: Obama v. Romney, Obama v. Perry, and Obama v. Bachmann.  Should another candidate emerge, I have data, but I will only present these cases right now, as they seem most likely at the moment.  Given the current atmosphere, the results may surprise you!

Let's Stand Up For Something

I understand that there is a difference between what is said and done during a campaign and what is practically possible as a president.  I understand the realities and difficulties that inherently come with leading a nation over over 300 million people with about 600 million different views.  And don't get me wrong, I was and am a supporter of President Obama and I will be actively campaigning for him leading up to the 2012 election.  But I do feel a little hamstrung and frustrated when looking back at the campaigner Obama and his principles and values, and his lack of standing up for those principles, in totality, over the last two years.

Now I also have to say that often when I have heard Democrats criticize Obama for not doing enough, I have refuted their words and one only has to look at the long list of accomplishments to see how much he really has done (i.e. health care, gay rights, fair pay, etc).  However, being one who believes in liberal values as a means of making a more equal and fair society for all of America's people, there are several things which continue to bother me in a real way.  This video, that I saw on the Rachel Maddow Show really sums it up.

I am also not the sort of person who is surprised by any amount of compromise because I know there are real difficulties in sticking to principles when you have to work with others.  But there are important issues which the president should stick to, especially because they are related to the advancement of the working, middle class.  Sticking to these principles would not only help people on a basal level, but it would undoubtedly help him politically.  According to a recent NBC/Wall Street Journal poll, liberal policies are markedly more popular than conservative ones, and people would much rather millionaires taxed at higher levels than cuts in infrastructure, education, and other investments that would make America a better place to live.  But why don't Obama and the 'main stream' of the Democratic party push harder on these issues?  It truly does not seem to make sense, and its frustrating that they too are playing into the easy story, what would be the path of least resistance. 

In America, both in politics and in everyday life, we must make the difficult choices and decide whether we want a better lives for ourselves and our nation, or if we want to take this path of least resistance, follow the popular media meme, and try to win according to those rules.  The problem with this is that if you are truly a liberal and in favor of progressive policies, and you attempt to play with these rules you are going to get run over and run out of power because you are not following the principles of the values you say you adhere to.  It is difficult to try to change the rules of the game, but it is not impossible and if we really want to advance the liberal policies which would undoubtedly change the country, each one of us must stand up, call for real change, and remind Obama what his campaign was about and what his presidency is supposed to be about.

Primary Day (PA, AR, KY Edition) 2010

Okay, so a couple of big primaries were today, most notably, the Democratic and Republican primaries in Kentucky, and the Democratic primaries in Pennsylvania and Arkansas. Adding to this insane amount of interesting political events was the special election in PA-12 which the Republicans were hoping to win to help boost their national meme that people are angry and the GOP will be their savior. They turned out to be wrong.

So the big deal of the night is that Democrats, and more importantly progressives and liberals, win tonight. Why? Well in Kentucky, Paul (Tea bagger) won for the GOP and Conway won for the Dems, and according to all of the polls out of that state pre-primary, this is the best match up for the Democrats. Also, even bigger Paul's defeat over the establishment candidate in the Republican party, which will undoubtedly bring into question the validity of Congressional Republicans, which only helps Democrats.

In Arkansas, the more progressive candidate Bill Halter held Wal-Mart Democrat Blanche Lincoln under 50% which causes an automatic run-off. Once again, this proves that liberals and progressives are enthusiastic about this election, and if they show up in a state as conservative as Arkansas, it is not unthinkable that they will show up to the polls in November when the political environment heats up. Also, Halter runs better against any Republican nominee, and his need to campaign in a run-off will keep his name out there and help him in November.

Lastly, in Pennsylvania Joe Sestak defeated 30 year incumbent Arlen Specter. This is nothing but good for Democrats because one Sestak is more liberal, two he's a stronger and tougher campaigner, three has an intangible that seems more real and down to earth, and four does not have the baggage that Specter has. It seems that Specter was not completely opportunistic in his changing parties, as he has voted almost solidly Democratic and has given his support to Sestak, yet Democrats should be happy that Sestak won, and the improved prospects for the fall. Also, the Democrat won in the PA-12 special election, which kills the GOP talking point that Dems are going to start losing everything, and gives the Dems a much needed boost for the sprint to November.

All in all it was definitely a good night for liberal and progressive Democrats everywhere and shows that the GOP tide which was said to be coming may not be as severe as everyone once thought, and Democrats are getting enthused, something that will surely have a great impact on how bad the 2010 cycle will be for Dems.

Republicans Moving Right

Currently, the Grand Ole' Party of Reagan and Bush are in quite a leadership crisis and there seems to be no apparent direction in which the majority of the party wishes to go. There are those who would like to keep drifting farther and farther right both politically and socially. There are also those who would prefer to move more toward the "center" which, following the 2008 election is still to the right of where the country would prefer to be, but that's what political parties do right. Anyway, in between these two poles we find a varied number of positions and outlooks on the significant, and not so significant, issues of the day. This is all normal within a political party, and is to be expected, the problem with the Republican party comes in the infighting we see on a daily basis among different players within the party.

We have seen this search for a leader and direction in significant ways over the past several weeks. The first major difficulty came in the aftermath following the passage of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act. While most Republican members in Congress decided to oppose the package (all in the House, all but 3 in the Senate), there were Republican governors who believed the package would be useful for their constituents and their states. This has created much turmoil within the Republican party. What the governors, such as Gov. Schwarzenegger (R-CA), Gov. Crist (R-FL), and Gov. Huntsman (R-UT) understand is that without this money, people will literally suffer. The Congressmen and women who chose to be overly, prinicpled ideologues instead of pragmatic legislators, are doing so to simply please the Conservative zealots, and seem to care little about the actual living conditions of the citizens of this country. This final point also applies to those governors of several southern states (Jindal (LA), Barbour (MS), Perry (TX), Sanford (SC), Perdue (GA)) and Alaska (Sarah Palin!!!), who have decided to put national ambition ahead of their constituents and have decided to reject some of the funds for those who need them the most, the unemployed. The Republicans will have to decide what is more important, their tired ideals or their constituents real life needs. Their decision, as of right now seems to be the former, and if it holds to be true, they will be in serious trouble politically, because with the election of Obama, we saw that the polity wass much more interested in real solutions as opposed to hyperpartisan ideals that alienate rather than bring people together.

This brings me to Rush Limbaugh, the darling of the Conservative wing of the Republican party. He is without a doubt the loudest voice on the right, the problem for the party comes when they must decide whether they listen to him, and he becomes the leader of the crowd, or if he is just another voice. It seems they are choosing the former. Time after time the Republicans are allowing Rush to set the agenda. We see this when they give him the keynote at CPAC, or when the newly elected RNC Chairman has to apologize for benignly suggesting he may be the leader of the party that just elected him as their leader. Rush is the driving force behind modern Conservatism and it seems that the old fashion moderate, intellectual conservative is a dying breed and will continue to be so as long as the Republicans keep pushing themselves farther and farther to the right. By examining any of the speeches at the CPAC (check out CSPAN.org, or watch this Daily Show clip), this shift is evident.

The Daily Show With Jon StewartM - Th 11p / 10c

CPAC After Party

Daily Show Full Episodes
Important Things With Demetri Martin

Political Humor
Joke of the Day

By moving even farther to the right the Republican party will become increasingly marginal and serve only to act as an obstructionist party. Instead of viewing the landscape of the world in which we live and creating policy positions accordingly, given their world view, the Republican party is holding fast to the principals of the 1980s and early 2000s which have lead to the economic crisis we are in now and disregard the dire situation in which individuals and groups find themselves. When a political party begins to disregard entire groups of persons, it will become marginal, and will have a very tough time winning in multiple, non traditionally Republican parts of the country. Furthermore, it will allow the Democratic Party to spread into some traditionally Republican regions such as the mid and upper mid-west (MO, ND, MT), southwest (AZ), and the Atlantic south (SC, GA). We shall see where the Republicans decide to go in the future, however it seems that they are increasingly moving to the right and favor the incendiary language of Rush to the more moderate and pragmatic tones that may actually win an election.

What My Electoral Predictions Are About

Hello all,

My name is Chris Comninel and I am extremely interested in this year's presidential election, as I believe many other American citizens are. Last cycle (2004), I was only 17 and was not able to vote; however, I was very in tune with the political process and the particulars of the outcome of the electoral college.

This sincere interest in the process, and a particular candidate, I decided to be as informed as possible about the election, and state polling, for it would be state polling that would most accurately gage the possible outcomes of the election. I searched for some type of averaging formula, but at the time could not think of a good empirical formula. Of course I did give more weight to more recent polls, and gave more weight to polls which had a larger sample size. Given the lack of such a particular formula, I was pretty accurate in noting that Ohio would be within about a point (I have an excel spreadsheet to prove it).

So this election cycle, I thought I would get specific and try to figure out a proper method of averaging the state polls, which are coming out in great numbers due to increased interest. So I followed my weighting stated above, with regard to recentness, but it still had much to be desired so, I did some research and found a remarkable idea, which is currently used at 538.com, a half-life formula of 30 days. Also, I am using a weighting number, given to each poll, based on primary accuracy, with the most accurate organization receiving a number of 3, and decreasing at a rate according to pollster ratings on 538.com.

So here is my methodology, and I am crediting 538.com, for a lot of help in this process. First, my base poll, is a SurveyUSA poll conducted from 2/26-2/28 in all 50 states. Then, there is a jump for most states to mid May, when it was pretty clear who each party's nominee would be, to the most recent poll I could find in a given state. For each poll, I multiply the 1) recentness number, 2) poll accuracy number, 3) the sample size number, and 4) the candidate's percentage received. This gives each candidate a "Multiplication Number." For each candidate, the "Mult Nums." are summed up and divided by a number created by multiplying the 1) recentness number, 2) poll accuracy number, and 3) the sample size number. This gives each candidate an average percentage. The numbers change each time a new poll is introduced.

This is different from 538's predictions because I do not factor in regression data, because although we can understand something from prior elections, I believe each election is unique and has factors which make it such. For example, in '96 and '04, we were dealing with incumbents and any election is going to favor an incumbent because of his great amount of resources. Also, my predictions change daily and are solely based on my averages, and not trend lines. This may change in the future, but because it it so early trends may be exaggerated in a particular direction.

I am doing this solely for my own interests and I am posting it just so its out there. If you find it interesting, thats great, if not, I still do. In coming days, I will post current averages in varying states, and have a little bit of commentary on each average.

Thanks for reading.