Yesterday, the Des Moines Register released a well respected poll of likely Republican Caucus goers in Iowa which showed that Herman Cain has not dropped in the polls yet, and it seems he may be more than just a "flavor of the month," a term coined by the increasingly insignificant Sarah Palin. The poll, done by Selzer & Co., showed Cain with 23% support among caucus goers, marginally leading Mitt Romney who has 22%, after that there is a ten percent drop of to Ron Paul at 12%. For a means of comparison, MSNBC's First Read points out that four years ago, "Romney led the field — at 29 percent - to former Arkansas governor and eventual caucus-winner Mike Huckabee's 12 percent in the October 2007 edition of the same poll." Romney is at a lower point than he was four years ago, and the electorate has moved farther to the right, both not good signs for the former governor of Massachusetts. Herman Cain seems to not be losing traction among Iowa Republicans and polls continue to show him at the top of the pack, whether you look at the races state by state or at a national level.
Cain's surge in the GOP primary contest began in late September/early October, and has continued in spite of numerous negative analysis of his tax plan, campaign strategies, blunt language with regard to different voting groups, and lack of seriousness organization in early primary states. However, he remains at the top of the polls in these states, and seems to do better the more people get to know about him. In comparison, Rick Perry only stayed this high in the polls, during his initial surge, for about a two to three weeks (from around mid/early August to the end of the month). Using my polling averaging formula, you can easily see the raising of Cain, plummeting of Romney, and the stagnation of the field otherwise.
It is obvious that Cain should not be counted out and is resonating with voters, especially tea-partiers, in some way, even in the face of an increasingly negative narrative. Everyone, in the media at least, seems to believe that the race will come down to Romney and Perry, with Paul playing the role of possible spoiler. However, I think there is definitely room for other faces, as the GOP electorate seem unhappy with their choices and seem to be going from candidate to candidate trying to find the 'right' fit. Even with as unpopular as Barack Obama is, Mitt Romney, hasn't been able to coalesce the Republican base for the past four years, its difficult to see a reason why they would all of a sudden become enlightened to the word of Romney.
Cain's surge in the GOP primary contest began in late September/early October, and has continued in spite of numerous negative analysis of his tax plan, campaign strategies, blunt language with regard to different voting groups, and lack of seriousness organization in early primary states. However, he remains at the top of the polls in these states, and seems to do better the more people get to know about him. In comparison, Rick Perry only stayed this high in the polls, during his initial surge, for about a two to three weeks (from around mid/early August to the end of the month). Using my polling averaging formula, you can easily see the raising of Cain, plummeting of Romney, and the stagnation of the field otherwise.
It is obvious that Cain should not be counted out and is resonating with voters, especially tea-partiers, in some way, even in the face of an increasingly negative narrative. Everyone, in the media at least, seems to believe that the race will come down to Romney and Perry, with Paul playing the role of possible spoiler. However, I think there is definitely room for other faces, as the GOP electorate seem unhappy with their choices and seem to be going from candidate to candidate trying to find the 'right' fit. Even with as unpopular as Barack Obama is, Mitt Romney, hasn't been able to coalesce the Republican base for the past four years, its difficult to see a reason why they would all of a sudden become enlightened to the word of Romney.
1 comment:
Cain is a personality and a very successful marketer. Unfortunately, Americans respond to marketing in all aspects of their lives, even spiritually. For many, political beliefs are based on family tradition, commercial blurbs, impulses and re-enforcers (of prior beliefs, prejudices, etc.). If you asked most supporters to explain why 9-9-9 would be a good idea, they wouldn't get far beyond whatever blurb they memorized because most people don't understand taxes and national economics.
The cure for this is education, which is why that party wants to gut it.
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