The Iowa GOP Not Giving Up on Cain ~ 11/7/2011

So this past weekend I posted two race prediction posts for either an Obama/Romney or Obama/Perry general election in 2012.  Both showed President Obama doing fairly well in the face of strong head winds.  As a result, I got some flack from certain commenters on the DailyKos for painting to 'rosy' of a picture.  I want to state again that my race ratings and predictions are based on calculated averages of polling data based on the polls' recentness, sample size and the quality of the pollster.  The results which I reported on my posts are a product of these calculations, so if you are to believe the predictions are 'too left' or biased, I say...look at the state polls.

Now for today's daily (or almost daily) polling up date...


1) Obama Approval - Gallup 1500 Adults 11/4-11/6, 43% approve, 50% disapprove...Obama= +1% approval, +/-0% disapproval (net +1% Obama) 


2) Obama Approval - Rasmussen 1500 LV 11/4-11/6, 47% approve, 52% disapprove...Obama= +2% approval, -1% disapproval (net +3% Obama)


These are two pretty good results for the President.  Particularly, when one looks at the Rasmussen poll, Obama has his best performance (only down 5) since early August of this year, save one day in early October. What's even more interesting is that his strongly approve/strongly disapprove numbers are getting increasingly better, something that may show the Democratic base may be rallying around the President and picking up enthusiasm as we head into 2012.  

                                      My Average: 43.4% Approval, 51.9% Disapproval

For the states...


3) Iowa GOP Caucus- Insider Advantage 507 LV 11/3. 30% Cain, 15% Romney, 12% Gingrich, 9% Paul, 8% Bachmann, 6% Perry, 2% Huntsman


4) Iowa GOP Caucus- We Ask America 864 LV 22% Cain, 18% Gingrich, 15% Romney, 11% Bachmann, 11% Paul, 4% Perry, 3% Santorum, 2% Huntsman


A couple of things to note...

• Cain continues to lead...Everyone seems to believe that the sex harassment scandal will hurt Herman Cain; however, I continue to say, as I have since last week, that I don't believe this will have much of an effect on Cain.  The conservative media is rallying around Cain and painting him as a victim of the 'liberal media,' and let's face it there are many conservative men who may not care whether the accusations are true or not.

• Perry is sinking even faster...He is now in 6th place in both of these polls, behind Bachmann and Paul, yet the media still believe he will be a factor in the nomination because of his 'money.'  However, he's getting very close to Santorum/Hunstman territory which is not a good sign for his campaign, making Gingrich seem much more viable than Perry in many of the key early states. 

Iowa GOP Average: 22.3% Cain, 19.3% Romney, 10.9% Gingrich, 11.2% Paul, 9.8% Bachmann, 8.6% Perry, 3.5% Santorum, 1.7% Huntsman

11/2/11 Obama's Up and Cain Surviving

Today's polling data came fast and early with a flurry of both state and national polls from various organizations which help to both clarify and muddy the 2012 election picture.  So what do these polls mean? Here's my take, as usual.


1) Obama Approval - Gallup 1500 Adults 10/30-11/1, 45% approve, 48% disapprove...Obama= +2% approval, -2% disapproval (net +4%) 


2) Obama Approval - Rasmussen 1500 LV 10/30-11/1, 44% approve, 55% disapprove...Obama=no change in approval/disapproval (no net change)


3) Obama Approval - Quinnipiac 2294 RV 10/27-10/30, 47% approve, 49% disapprove...Obama= +6% approval, -6% disapproval (net +12%)


While Rasmussen shows the President remaining at a negative eleven percent approval rating, the approval number is still at 44% which is not horrible for the president given the state of the economy and negative attitudes throughout the country.  Additionally, the Quinnipiac and Gallup polls bring great news to the White House as they show a twelve and four point turn around for the President nationally since their last polls, Quinnipiac's being around one month ago.  It will be essential for Obama's approval be near fifty percent, and this is just another poll showing that Obama is gaining traction with the public, and that the American people are waking up and beginning to see more and more who is really fighting for them, and who is blocking any progression.


I still see December as the month where Obama's numbers will really start to pick up. The next few days will also be telling as to whether Obama's approval will increase further as the Congress will vote on an infrastructure portion of the original jobs bill and the unemployment numbers will be released.  I think on the first issue, Obama wins either way as he will either get the bill passed, which will create jobs and show the President's policies work OR it gets voted down and the Republicans continue to be obstructionists, and Obama is seen as working for the American people, and caring, something which means more than you might think.

And now the state polls, both presidential and GOP primary....


4) Florida President - Suffolk/7News 800 RV 10/26-10/30

• 42% Obama, 42% Romney
• 46% Obama, 34% Perry
• 42% Obama, 39% Cain
• 45% Obama, 38% Gingrich
• 44% Obama, 32% Paul

Florida is going to be one of the closest state races should Mitt Romney win the Republican nomination.  If any other candidate becomes the Republican nominee I would immediately say that Florida would Lean Democratic, something which I would believe of most of the toss up states should Romney not win the GOP nomination.  

Right now, my polling average shows the race almost a dead heat...Obama 43.77% v. Romney 43.48% (Obama +0.29%).  Continue to see the polling in this state to see saw a couple points between the candidates, but if Obama's continues as it has been look for Obama to be ahead of Romney by ~3-5% points.

5) Florida GOP Primary - Suffolk/7News 287 RV 10/26-10/30, 25% Romney, 24% Cain, 11% Gingrich, 9% Perry, 5% Paul, 2% Huntsman, 1% Bachmann, 1% Santorum

6) South Carolina GOP Primary - Rasmussen 770 LV 11/1, 33% Cain, 23% Romney, 15% Gingrich, 9% Perry, 5% Paul, 2% Bachmann, 1% Huntsman, 1% Santorum

Both of these polls show the same thing, something which I pointed out yesterday.  Romney is stagnant.  His numbers are not moving up or down in any way and it seems his support in these two key states is stuck around 30% and 25% respectively.  In contrast, Cain has ticked up slightly in Florida and by a large degree in South Carolina, where he has now taken the lead.  What is more interesting to note is that the Rasmussen poll was taken the day after the sexual harassment story broke, and up to now, it seems to have had no effect, as I predicted yesterday.  Perry is still plummeting and I don't see him picking up steam at all.  Gingrich is ticking up as well and was third place in both of these polls, the one on one debate between Cain and Gingrich will be very interesting to watch, as they seem to have very similar voters (e.g. angry, passionate, very anti-Obama, etc.).  Don't count out Cain yet.

7) North Carolina President - Public Policy Polling 615 LV 10/27-10/31

• 45% Obama, 46% Romney
• 50% Obama, 42% Perry
• 47% Obama, 44% Cain
• 50% Obama, 43% Gingrich
• 48% Obama, 40% Paul
• 50% Obama, 42% Bachmann

Like Florida, I see North Carolina being a toss up if Romney is the nominee, and a Lean Democratic state should any other candidate get the GOP nomination.  The state has been trending Democratic and is one which the Obama 2012 team really wants to keep in the Democratic column.  I would even say that it seems more likely that Obama will win NC, than states such as FL, NV, VA, or NH given the current standing of the president, and that Romney is the nominee.  However, I would say that the president's approval had been at an all time low, and as a Republican nominee emerges, the Democratic message will coalesce and I would imagine Obama's numbers to rise.  

Right now, the race between Obama and Romney stands at...Obama 45.34% v. Romney 44.80% (Obama +0.54%).  I would predict Obama winning NC by ~2% if Romney is the nominee, and by 5-8% should any other GOP candidate be the nominee.  

11/1/11 - Tuesday Polling Update - Cain Continues to Ride High

Today's polls provide show us that Herman Cain's support may be a lot more widespread than we thought, and that Mitt Romney, while to most sensible choice is still having a tough time garnering support, even in his own neck of the woods.

Starting off, the President's Approval numbers seem stagnant this week, not moving much in either direction.

1) Obama Approval - Gallup 1500 Adults 10/29-10/31, 43% approve, 50% disapprove...Obama= no change in  approval/disapproval (net no change)


2) Obama Approval - Rasmussen 1500 LV 10/29-10/31, 44% approve, 55% disapprove...Obama= -1% approval, +1% disapproval (net -2%)


3) Obama Approval - PPP/Daily Kos 1000 RV 10/27-10/30, 42% approve, 53% disapprove...Obama= -2% approval, +2% disapproval (net -4%)


As I said, I think that stagnant is the best word to possibly describe the President's approval ratings.  Right now, they're not increasing; however, they are not sinking to the same level which they would in the dog days of the summer.  If the media picks up more on the implementation of the executive announcements which are beginning to be signed this week, and people get a better sense of his urgency with regard to boosting the economy, I see his numbers ticking up but very slowly.  Additionally, it seems that the White House is doing somewhat of a media blitz to inform people of the significance of the aforementioned announcements.  Also, the jobs number will be telling on Friday and could either inflate the public's mood or depress it depending on the number, I predict the former.

Now the state Republican primary polling...

4) Maine GOP Primary - Public Policy Polling 250 LV 10/28-10/31, 29% Cain, 24% Romney, 18% Gingrich, 5% Bachmann, 5% Paul, 4% Perry, 2% Santorum, 1% Huntsman

Once again, Herman Cain finds himself at the top of a state primary poll.  What's even more surprising is that it is in the North East, a region which many thought Mitt Romney had sewn up.  However, Maine, like New Hampshire, is a very quirky state and can have a lot more conservative tendencies, than say states like Connecticut, Rhode Island, Massachusetts, and of course Vermont.  While this poll was taken before the Cain sex harassment story blew up in the media, it is still very telling about the amount of support Cain has built up throughout the country.  It is also a definite hit to Mitt Romney.  Conservatives simply don't trust him to be an advocate for their policies and ideals, and as a result they are looking for another candidate to fulfill those needs, and right now Cain is their man.  Most seem to think that this most recent scandal will hurt Cain; however, I believe that it will not, and for one simple reason...conservative media.  Conservative media has rallied around Cain and see this story as another example of the liberal media elite stereotyping an African American conservative.  As with in most cases, I believe their flock will follow them, and Cain will not be damaged by this story, and if he is it will be only minimal. 

5) Maine Senate GOP Primary - Public Policy Polling 250 LV 10/28-10/31, 62% Olympia Snowe (incumbent), 10% Scott D'Amboise, 7% Andrew Ian Dodge

Snowe looks a lot safer than she has in the past.  I personally believe that if she has ONE conservative challenger, and the more conservative members of the Maine GOP rally around that person, then that person would give Snowe a run for her money.  However, it doesn't seem like that will happen at this moment, so as of now I would bet on Snowe being the nominee, which makes it VERY LIKELY that this seat would stay REPUBLICAN.

5) North Carolina GOP Primary - Public Policy Polling 474 LV 10/27-10/31, 30% Cain, 22% Gingrich, 19% Romney, 10% Perry, 4% Bachmann, 4% Paul, 2% Huntsman, 2% Santorum

This is the second time PPP has polled North Carolina since his surge in the polls, and his numbers have only increased.  I don't see this being a state in which Romney has a good shot at winning.  While the results of the primary may have nothing to do with who wins the nomination (it won't be held until May 8, 2012), the poll is still a good way to show the attitudes of southern voters, and once again, one thing is clear...they are not happy with Mitt Romney as a possible nominee.  Even more so, BOTH the Maine and North Carolina polls show that Romney isn't even the second choice for a large majority of those who claim to support Cain.  Most of these likely primary voters like Gingrich should Cain not be the nominee, and if Cain does implode it would be interesting to see if Gingrich could rally that support to his side and turn out to be a contender, even after the disastrous roll out his campaign had.  Even noting that Gingrich has a shot, says something really bad about the Republican party, and shows that they are not in a strong position for 2012, and that the person who would have the best shot at defeating Obama (i.e. Romney), is the one they like the least.   

10/31/11 Happy Halloween Polling Update

Happy Halloween everybody!! I'll be dressing up a bit later, so I decided to get the daily polling update out of the way.  We have a pretty rich polling update today, including the standard daily tracking polls, new state polls of Wisconsin, Texas and Washington, with some very mixed results for the President.


1) Obama Approval - Gallup 1500 Adults 10/28-10/30, 43% approve, 50% disapprove...Obama= no change in  approval/disapproval (net no change)


2) Obama Approval - Rasmussen 1500 LV 10/28-10/30, 45% approve, 54% disapprove...Obama= -1% approval, +1% disapproval (net -2%)


3) Texas President - University of Texas 800 RV 10/19-10/26

• 34% Obama, 36% Romney
• 37% Obama, 45% Perry
• 35% Obama, 40% Cain
• 33% Obama, 38% Paul

These are some pretty promising results for Barack Obama in Texas.  He runs within five points of most of the candidates, and trails the current governor of the state by eight points.  However, two things concern me, the poll is of all registered voters, something which usually benefits Democrats as there are usually more registered Dems who don't get out to the polls.  Also, in each poll there are around twenty to thirty percent undecided voters, which is high meaning one of two things...most undecideds will break Republican as the state is obviously more conservative than not, or most people are not really engaged in the process.  Either way, to see President Obama this close in a state that hasn't gone Democratic in years is something that could make Democrats hopeful.

4) Texas GOP Primary - University of Texas 395 RV 10/19-10/26, 27% Cain, 26% Perry, 12% Paul, 9% Romney, 8% Gingrich, 2% Bachmann, 1% Santorum, 1% Huntsman

Once again Herman Cain is at the top of a state GOP primary poll.  The last poll of likely Texas Republican primary goers showed Perry with a thirty-five to forty point lead. However, as with most polls he has plummeted pretty markedly, and not winning his own state would be a big blow to the Perry campaign.  Look for these two to make a race out of the sate, Romney has very little chance here regardless of Cain's successes or failures.

5) Wisconsin President - Wisconsin Policy Research Institute 650 Adults 10/23-10/26

• 46% Obama, 35% Romney
• 48% Obama, 30% Perry
• 50% Obama, 31% Cain

6) Wisconsin President - Rasmussen 500 LV 10/26

• 45% Obama, 41% Romney
• 42% Obama, 46% Perry
• 47% Obama, 42% Cain

There are two conflicting polls in the Wisconsin race, one showing Obama with huge leads, particularly against Perry or Cain.  The other, from Rasmussen, shows a much tighter race, with Perry even leading, something which I see as incredibly unlikely, as this is the FIRST time I've seen Perry leading any race outside of a state which went Republican in 2008.  All things considered these races are most likely somewhere between what these polls say.  My current average shows Wisconsin to be a state which leans Obama regardless of the candidate ( +5 on Romney, +10 on Perry, and +13 on Cain).  Rasmussen has done very little state polling at this part in the cycle, and in past cycles has seen a strong bias toward Republican candidates.

7)  Washington President - University of Washington 938 RV 10/10-10/30

• 50% Obama, 41% Romney
• 54% Obama, 41% Perry

Washington seems to be a pretty safe state for the President.  Overall, they approve of him by a margin of 52-43% and are not as mad at the federal government as the rest of the country.  These results are in line with previous polls of the state, and will probably be in the Democratic column once again come November 2012.

10/30/11 Sunday Polling Update

Only three polls of note today, two on the president's approval rating and one on the GOP race in Iowa.

1) Obama Approval - Gallup 1500 Adults 10/27-10/29, 43% approve, 50% disapprove...Obama= +1% approval, -1% disapproval (net +2%)

2) Obama Approval - Rasmussen 1500 LV 10/27-10/29, 46% approve, 53% disapprove...Obama= no change approval, +1% disapproval (net -1%)

3) Iowa Caucus - Selzer & Co. (Des Moines Register) 400 LV 10/23-10/26, 23% Cain, 22% Romney, 12% Paul, 8% Bachmann, 7% Gingrich, 7% Perry, 5% Santorum, 1% Hunstman

Obama has a net approval rating of negative seven percent in both daily tracking approval polls, showing once again that his standing is increasing steadily, albeit at a predictably slow rate.  Even Rasmussen has him at 46% and a deeper look at their poll shows that is strongly approve/disapprove numbers are even climbing slowly.  With regard to the IA Caucus, please read my earlier post on Herman Cain and his unyielding position at the top of the GOP primary field.

Looks Like Herm Has Some Staying Power...at least more than Rick!

Yesterday, the Des Moines Register released a well respected poll of likely Republican Caucus goers in Iowa which showed that Herman Cain has not dropped in the polls yet, and it seems he may be more than just a "flavor of the month," a term coined by the increasingly insignificant Sarah Palin. The poll, done by Selzer & Co., showed Cain with 23% support among caucus goers, marginally leading Mitt Romney who has 22%, after that there is a ten percent drop of to Ron Paul at 12%. For a means of comparison, MSNBC's First Read points out that four years ago, "Romney led the field — at 29 percent - to former Arkansas governor and eventual caucus-winner Mike Huckabee's 12 percent in the October 2007 edition of the same poll." Romney is at a lower point than he was four years ago, and the electorate has moved farther to the right, both not good signs for the former governor of Massachusetts.  Herman Cain seems to not be losing traction among Iowa Republicans and polls continue to show him at the top of the pack, whether you look at the races state by state or at a national level.

Cain's surge in the GOP primary contest began in late September/early October, and has continued in spite of numerous negative analysis of his tax plan, campaign strategies, blunt language with regard to different voting groups, and lack of seriousness organization in early primary states.  However, he remains at the top of the polls in these states, and seems to do better the more people get to know about him.  In comparison, Rick Perry only stayed this high in the polls, during his initial surge, for about a two to three weeks (from around mid/early August to the end of the month).  Using my polling averaging formula, you can easily see the raising of Cain, plummeting of Romney, and the stagnation of the field otherwise.

 It is obvious that Cain should not be counted out and is resonating with voters, especially tea-partiers, in some way, even in the face of an increasingly negative narrative. Everyone, in the media at least, seems to believe that the race will come down to Romney and Perry, with Paul playing the role of possible spoiler.  However, I think there is definitely room for other faces, as the GOP electorate seem unhappy with their choices and seem to be going from candidate to candidate trying to find the 'right' fit.  Even with as unpopular as Barack Obama is, Mitt Romney, hasn't been able to coalesce the Republican base for the past four years, its difficult to see a reason why they would all of a sudden become enlightened to the word of Romney.     

10/29/11 Saturday Polling Update!

So a normal slow polling Saturday gives us two polls, both daily tracking polls of the president's approval/disapproval...

1) Gallup 1500 Adults 10/26-10/28, 42% approve, 51% disapprove

2) Rasmussen 1500 LV 10/26-10/28, 46% approve, 52% disapprove

While these aren't the best numbers, they continue to show an improvement in the president's standing. The Rasmussen poll is promising and shows a marked increase from days prior showing Friday was a good day for Obama. I expect this to continue to happen especially with the multitude of political news stories out there are about the ineptness of the GOP primary field and their party's intransigence in the Congress.