The Iowa GOP Not Giving Up on Cain ~ 11/7/2011

So this past weekend I posted two race prediction posts for either an Obama/Romney or Obama/Perry general election in 2012.  Both showed President Obama doing fairly well in the face of strong head winds.  As a result, I got some flack from certain commenters on the DailyKos for painting to 'rosy' of a picture.  I want to state again that my race ratings and predictions are based on calculated averages of polling data based on the polls' recentness, sample size and the quality of the pollster.  The results which I reported on my posts are a product of these calculations, so if you are to believe the predictions are 'too left' or biased, I say...look at the state polls.

Now for today's daily (or almost daily) polling up date...


1) Obama Approval - Gallup 1500 Adults 11/4-11/6, 43% approve, 50% disapprove...Obama= +1% approval, +/-0% disapproval (net +1% Obama) 


2) Obama Approval - Rasmussen 1500 LV 11/4-11/6, 47% approve, 52% disapprove...Obama= +2% approval, -1% disapproval (net +3% Obama)


These are two pretty good results for the President.  Particularly, when one looks at the Rasmussen poll, Obama has his best performance (only down 5) since early August of this year, save one day in early October. What's even more interesting is that his strongly approve/strongly disapprove numbers are getting increasingly better, something that may show the Democratic base may be rallying around the President and picking up enthusiasm as we head into 2012.  

                                      My Average: 43.4% Approval, 51.9% Disapproval

For the states...


3) Iowa GOP Caucus- Insider Advantage 507 LV 11/3. 30% Cain, 15% Romney, 12% Gingrich, 9% Paul, 8% Bachmann, 6% Perry, 2% Huntsman


4) Iowa GOP Caucus- We Ask America 864 LV 22% Cain, 18% Gingrich, 15% Romney, 11% Bachmann, 11% Paul, 4% Perry, 3% Santorum, 2% Huntsman


A couple of things to note...

• Cain continues to lead...Everyone seems to believe that the sex harassment scandal will hurt Herman Cain; however, I continue to say, as I have since last week, that I don't believe this will have much of an effect on Cain.  The conservative media is rallying around Cain and painting him as a victim of the 'liberal media,' and let's face it there are many conservative men who may not care whether the accusations are true or not.

• Perry is sinking even faster...He is now in 6th place in both of these polls, behind Bachmann and Paul, yet the media still believe he will be a factor in the nomination because of his 'money.'  However, he's getting very close to Santorum/Hunstman territory which is not a good sign for his campaign, making Gingrich seem much more viable than Perry in many of the key early states. 

Iowa GOP Average: 22.3% Cain, 19.3% Romney, 10.9% Gingrich, 11.2% Paul, 9.8% Bachmann, 8.6% Perry, 3.5% Santorum, 1.7% Huntsman

Obama v. Perry 2012 Predictions

Yesterday I laid out what is probably the most likely scenario for the 2012 general election for president, Obama v. Romney.  Today I will focus on Rick Perry's chances against Obama as of today, November 6, 2011.  Although Perry's numbers are low, many think he is the second most likely Republican nominee due to the amount of money he has on hand, and the establishment 'cred' he has in the GOP.

Obama v. Perry
Due to Perry's 'late' entry into the race in August, there is not the same amount of polling as with Romney, so more of this prediction is conjecture, but the numbers also speak for themselves.  Here is how I see the race as of right now.

SAFE DEMOCRATIC-232        LIKELY DEMOCRATIC-94          LEANS DEMOCRATIC-32
Hawaii (D+35) 4                          Wisconsin (D+10.6) 10               North Carolina (D+5.7) 15
Massachusetts (D+32.4) 11         Nevada (D+9.9) 6                       New Hampshire (D+5) 4
Vermont (D+29) 3                       Iowa (D+9.5) 6                          Virginia (D+3.3) 13
New York (D+29.8) 29               Ohio (D+9.1) 18                      
California (D+21) 55                    Florida (D+9) 29
Illinois (D+20.4) 20                     Arizona (D+6) 11
Michigan (D+20.2) 16                 Colorado 9
Maine (D+18.4) 4                       New Mexico 5
Connecticut (D+16) 7
Washington (D+13.3) 12
New Jersey (D+13) 14
Pennsylvania (D+11.5) 20
Minnesota 10                  
Oregon 7
Delaware 3
Maryland 10
Rhode Island 4
Washington, DC 3



TOSS UP-19
South Carolina (R+1.6) 9
Missouri (R+2) 10

SAFE REPUBLICAN-65             LIKELY REPUBLICAN-66              LEANS REPUBLICAN-30
 Louisiana (R+15) 8                          Kentucky (R+7) 8                               Georgia 16
West Virginia (R+14.6) 5                  Nebraska (R+7) 5                               Indiana 11
 Tennessee (R+15) 11                     Texas (R+7.2) 38                                 Montana 3                
Alabama 9                                      South Dakota (R+6) 3                               
Arkansas 6                                     Alaska 3
Idaho 4                                          North Dakota 3         
Kansas 6                                        Mississippi 6
Oklahoma 7
Wyoming 3
Utah 6

The states without D+ or R+ have not had any polling data up to this point in the cycle and I have handicapped them based on past voting trends, while taking into account the candidates and how they (or similar candidates) may have performed in these states in the past.

Not counting the TOSS UP states, the current electoral vote totals would be: Obama 358, Perry 161, Toss up 19...My popular vote results would be ~49% Obama to ~38% Perry, with still 13% remaining undecided, leaving a lot of room for either side; however, its important to note that Obama has an 11 point lead and is just about at 50%.  He would be in a much better position with Perry as the nominee compared to Romney, as Perry turns out to be a more polarizing figure, with most people not liking him.  To see South Carolina in the Toss Up category is staggering, but really shows the amount of space Perry has to make up, even in the south.

As with Romney, Arizona is probably more of a toss up, but the only current polling data shows Obama leading.  I would expect VA, FL, OH and NC to be closer because the GOP base will coalesce, but I still think Obama would win these states.  Once again, I'm really interested in what the polling data says for Indiana and Georgia, but no one has polled them recently.

I am strongly favoring Obama for reelection should Perry be the nominee. All things considered, giving this data, I have him leading 358 to 180.  

Good Polling for Obama Continues ~ 11/3/11

Today's polls once again are a great sign for the Obama campaign, the White House, and Congressional Democrats that the American people are starting to get sick of the Republican candidates already and taking another look at Obama and realizing the degree to which he is attempting to do right by the American people.

First, his approval numbers...

1) Obama Approval - Gallup 1500 Adults 10/31-11/2, 44% approve, 49% disapprove...Obama= -1% approval, +1% disapproval (net -2% Obama) 


2) Obama Approval - Rasmussen 1500 LV 10/30-11/1, 46% approve, 52% disapprove...Obama= +2% approval, -3% disapproval (net +5% Obama)


3) Obama Approval - YouGov 1000 Adults 10/29-11/1, 41% approve, 52% disapprove...Obama= -1% approval, -3% disapproval (net -4% Obama)

My Average: 43.2% Approval, 51.9% Disapproval

Obama's approval numbers continue to inch up slowly and is beginning to hit and stay steady in the low to mid 40s as opposed to the high 30s/low 40s.  The Rasmussen number suggests an even greater uptick as they usual favor Republicans.  Also, the YouGov poll usually shows Obama at low numbers regardless of the situation and is an internet poll, something which I believe gives it less credibility and makes it more subject to passionate supporters/dissenters who actively choose to participate.  I believe this trend will continue.  

For the states...

4) Pennsylvania President - Franklin & Marshall 419 RV 10/24-10/30

• 35% Obama, 26% Romney
• 40% Obama, 20% Perry
• 38% Obama, 24% Cain
• 38% Obama, 25% Santorum

Like most F&M polls there are a large amount of undecideds; however, there are several important things to note. One, Obama is up in Pennsylvania a state which is key to a Democratic victory, and one which the Dems need to hold onto (and probably will) in order to win.  Also, Obama has increased his standing, when compared to one of the Republican candidates, in all circumstances since the last time Pennsylvania was polled.  Lastly, if Romney is not the nominee, count Pennsylvania as a LIKELY DEMOCRATIC state, as the other candidates are not viable, otherwise its LEAN DEMOCRATIC. 

AVERAGES: 42.4% Obama, 37.5% Romney (Obama +4.9)

                    44.8% Obama, 33.2% Perry (Obama +11.6)

                    39.0% Obama, 25.2% Cain (Obama +13.8)

PREDICTIONS: Obama v. Romney >> Obama +6-8

                         Obama v. Perry >> Obama +10-15

                         Obama v. Cain >> Obama +12-17

5) New York President - Marist 855 RV 10/25-10/27

• 59% Obama, 35% Romney
• 64% Obama, 29% Perry
• 62% Obama, 31% Cain

New York is and will continue to be a SAFE DEMOCRATIC state.  Even with an approval rating in the mid 40s in the state, Obama blows out all of his prospective opponents.  What is important to note is that his numbers are continuing to rise as they are nationally.

AVERAGES: 56.9% Obama, 35.9% Romney (Obama +21)

                    60.2% Obama, 30.4% Perry (Obama +29.8)

                    62.0% Obama, 31.0% Cain (Obama +31)

PREDICTIONS: Obama v. Romney >> Obama +15-25

                         Obama v. Perry >> Obama +25-30

                         Obama v. Cain >> Obama +25-30

6) Maine Senate - Public Policy Polling 673 LV 10/28-10/31

• 64% Snowe (R), 22% Dunlap (D)
• 65% Snowe (R), 18% Hinck (D)
• 54% Snowe (R), 37% Michaud (D)
• 55% Snowe (R), 36% Pingree (D)
• 31% Dunlap (D), 23% D'Amboise (R)
• 26% D'Amboise (R), 25% Hinck (D)
• 30% Dunlap (D), 25% Dodge (R)
• 27% Hinck (D), 25% Dodge (R)

Should Snowe survive a primary fight, which I believe she will, this seat will be a SAFE REPUBLICAN hold.  Only Dunlap and Hinck are announced candidates on the Democratic side and she leads them both by what are seemingly insurmountable margins.  A moderate might actually survive!! We'll see if the tea party will throw money into this seat and rally behind one of the alternatives, D'Amboise or Dodge, but I don't see it happening right now.

A new feature...Generic Congressional Ballot Questions!  Starting today, I will be adding generic congressional ballot questions to my polling analysis as it seems more and more likely that the US House may switch back to Democratic control.  Therefore, similar to what I do with the rest of the polls I report on, I will provide my analysis and understanding of these polls.

7) Congressional Ballot - YouGov RV 10/29-11/1, 39% Democratic, 36% Republican

Democrats look like they will be aggressive in trying to win back the House and I would give them better than a 50-50 shot to do so.

To sum it all up...

• Mixed approval numbers for Obama, but they continue to tick up slowly
• Good state polls in PA and NY for Obama, as his re-election numbers rise in both states
• Snowe looks increasingly safe in Maine
• Dems are aggressive about the House and may get it back

10/31/11 Happy Halloween Polling Update

Happy Halloween everybody!! I'll be dressing up a bit later, so I decided to get the daily polling update out of the way.  We have a pretty rich polling update today, including the standard daily tracking polls, new state polls of Wisconsin, Texas and Washington, with some very mixed results for the President.


1) Obama Approval - Gallup 1500 Adults 10/28-10/30, 43% approve, 50% disapprove...Obama= no change in  approval/disapproval (net no change)


2) Obama Approval - Rasmussen 1500 LV 10/28-10/30, 45% approve, 54% disapprove...Obama= -1% approval, +1% disapproval (net -2%)


3) Texas President - University of Texas 800 RV 10/19-10/26

• 34% Obama, 36% Romney
• 37% Obama, 45% Perry
• 35% Obama, 40% Cain
• 33% Obama, 38% Paul

These are some pretty promising results for Barack Obama in Texas.  He runs within five points of most of the candidates, and trails the current governor of the state by eight points.  However, two things concern me, the poll is of all registered voters, something which usually benefits Democrats as there are usually more registered Dems who don't get out to the polls.  Also, in each poll there are around twenty to thirty percent undecided voters, which is high meaning one of two things...most undecideds will break Republican as the state is obviously more conservative than not, or most people are not really engaged in the process.  Either way, to see President Obama this close in a state that hasn't gone Democratic in years is something that could make Democrats hopeful.

4) Texas GOP Primary - University of Texas 395 RV 10/19-10/26, 27% Cain, 26% Perry, 12% Paul, 9% Romney, 8% Gingrich, 2% Bachmann, 1% Santorum, 1% Huntsman

Once again Herman Cain is at the top of a state GOP primary poll.  The last poll of likely Texas Republican primary goers showed Perry with a thirty-five to forty point lead. However, as with most polls he has plummeted pretty markedly, and not winning his own state would be a big blow to the Perry campaign.  Look for these two to make a race out of the sate, Romney has very little chance here regardless of Cain's successes or failures.

5) Wisconsin President - Wisconsin Policy Research Institute 650 Adults 10/23-10/26

• 46% Obama, 35% Romney
• 48% Obama, 30% Perry
• 50% Obama, 31% Cain

6) Wisconsin President - Rasmussen 500 LV 10/26

• 45% Obama, 41% Romney
• 42% Obama, 46% Perry
• 47% Obama, 42% Cain

There are two conflicting polls in the Wisconsin race, one showing Obama with huge leads, particularly against Perry or Cain.  The other, from Rasmussen, shows a much tighter race, with Perry even leading, something which I see as incredibly unlikely, as this is the FIRST time I've seen Perry leading any race outside of a state which went Republican in 2008.  All things considered these races are most likely somewhere between what these polls say.  My current average shows Wisconsin to be a state which leans Obama regardless of the candidate ( +5 on Romney, +10 on Perry, and +13 on Cain).  Rasmussen has done very little state polling at this part in the cycle, and in past cycles has seen a strong bias toward Republican candidates.

7)  Washington President - University of Washington 938 RV 10/10-10/30

• 50% Obama, 41% Romney
• 54% Obama, 41% Perry

Washington seems to be a pretty safe state for the President.  Overall, they approve of him by a margin of 52-43% and are not as mad at the federal government as the rest of the country.  These results are in line with previous polls of the state, and will probably be in the Democratic column once again come November 2012.

10/30/11 Sunday Polling Update

Only three polls of note today, two on the president's approval rating and one on the GOP race in Iowa.

1) Obama Approval - Gallup 1500 Adults 10/27-10/29, 43% approve, 50% disapprove...Obama= +1% approval, -1% disapproval (net +2%)

2) Obama Approval - Rasmussen 1500 LV 10/27-10/29, 46% approve, 53% disapprove...Obama= no change approval, +1% disapproval (net -1%)

3) Iowa Caucus - Selzer & Co. (Des Moines Register) 400 LV 10/23-10/26, 23% Cain, 22% Romney, 12% Paul, 8% Bachmann, 7% Gingrich, 7% Perry, 5% Santorum, 1% Hunstman

Obama has a net approval rating of negative seven percent in both daily tracking approval polls, showing once again that his standing is increasing steadily, albeit at a predictably slow rate.  Even Rasmussen has him at 46% and a deeper look at their poll shows that is strongly approve/disapprove numbers are even climbing slowly.  With regard to the IA Caucus, please read my earlier post on Herman Cain and his unyielding position at the top of the GOP primary field.

10/29/11 Saturday Polling Update!

So a normal slow polling Saturday gives us two polls, both daily tracking polls of the president's approval/disapproval...

1) Gallup 1500 Adults 10/26-10/28, 42% approve, 51% disapprove

2) Rasmussen 1500 LV 10/26-10/28, 46% approve, 52% disapprove

While these aren't the best numbers, they continue to show an improvement in the president's standing. The Rasmussen poll is promising and shows a marked increase from days prior showing Friday was a good day for Obama. I expect this to continue to happen especially with the multitude of political news stories out there are about the ineptness of the GOP primary field and their party's intransigence in the Congress.

Obama's Approval by December

President Barack Obama will have a net neutral approval rating by December, and here's why.  

It has been a rough almost three years for Barack Obama.  There's no doubt that Obama has faced a great deal of scrutiny, from all angles, since the beginning of his presidency.  Additionally, since the GOP took control of the House of Representatives, it has been increasingly difficult for him to get any of his bills, initiatives, or policy plans passed in Congress.  Not surprisingly, as a consequence of this barrage of negative attention, Obama's approval ratings have suffered greatly.  

According to Gallup, from July to September, President Obama's average approval rating stood at a very weak 41%.  This was most likely a result of relatively high and stagnant unemployment, media hyped fears of a double dip recession, continual reports of low economic growth, and a Republican field taking up all of the oxygen on the news, using most of their time to denigrate the president in any way they could.  Of course, additionally, there is the constant anti-Obama/anti-government chatter that you will here wherever you go.  

However, things are starting to look up for the president.  Taking a look at the current polling data on the approval of Barack Obama's job as president, beginning in October, and extrapolating the current trend line of the these polls there is a lot of hope that these 'underwater' numbers will reverse themselves, and it will not take relatively long for this to happen.  

Obama started the month of October with an approval rating of around 41.5% with a disapproval rating of around 54% (This was found by using a logarithmic regression of over thirty polls from October 2 to October 26).  Doing some quick math would tell you that his net approval rating around negative twelve and a half percent (12.5%).  This number is not only disheartening to supporters of the President, but not a good omen when the election is thirteen months away.  However, several things have happened since the beginning of the month, and as a result so have the President's fortunes.  As of today, October 28, President Obama's approval is around 43%, with a disapproval of ~51.5%, or a net approval of negative eight and a half percent (8.5%).  This is a dramatic and impressive, but not unexpected, rebound for the president, and there are several reasons why I believe this has happened. 

Since the beginning of the month, Obama has taken out two of the world's most dangerous leaders in Anwar al-Awlaki and Muomar Khaddafi, which has only continued to strengthen his foreign policy credentials both abroad and at home.  This is proof for independents that Obama's policy can be successful, and that they may be giving him a second look.  Additionally, the President announced the that by the end of the year, all US troops will be withdrawn from Iraq, an action which a majority of American's believe is well overdue.  This move hypothetically would increase Obama's approval among a variety of different groups, from liberals and libertarians who never liked to the war, to independents and conservatives who have grown increasingly sour of the war.  

While these moves have likely helped Obama, the economy is the lead story, and what happens in the country with regards to the economy will have the greatest impact on his reelection chances and his approval ratings in general.  In that vain, there have been several recent reports and polls which have shown that the stagnancy of the economy may be coming to an end, and that the fears of a double dip recession may have been well overblown.  Last quarter, advance estimates show that the GDP grew at a rate of about 2.5%, which while not great, is much better than many thought it would be.  Additionally, a recent Gallup study showed that unemployment may have decreased by a significant rate in October, a study which the jobs report will hopefully confirm this coming Friday.  Consumers hear more positive news and as a result, have a more positive attitude about, which can only help the President.

Both domestically and with regard to foreign policy, there are concrete reasons to help understand this increase; however, I believe the political narrative has much more to do with it that anything.  If one looks at the events of the past month, several narratives emerge.  First, the President is among the people, and getting things done.  Since early September, Barack Obama has been on the road through many states all over the country promoting and explaining his jobs bill, rallying his base, and showing the American people that he is trying to get something positive done in Washington.  Additionally, Obama has shown an increasingly assertive tone by deciding to implement policy through executive order and directly confront those in Congress who continue to block progressive and positive action.  While this is happening the media is also continuing to focus on the Republican primary.  On its face, this might seem to be a benefit for the Republican candidates, as many of them will become more well known and their views will be available for public consumption.  However, it seems that the more people get to see of candidates such as Michelle Bachmann, Rick Perry, and Herman Cain, the less they like, as these candidates do not seem serious, practical, or realistic options for the presidency of the United States.  Once again, Barack Obama looks stronger compared to these candidates, and among independents becomes a more viable and practical choice for reelection. 

Given these three narratives, it is not surprising to see President Obama's approval ratings on the rise.  If the economy continues to grow, particularly through the holiday season, and the President continues to stress the importance of the passage of a comprehensive jobs bill to an increasingly intransigent Republican led House of Representatives, his approval will only continue to rise.  The trend suggests that by mid to late December, Barack Obama will have a neutral net Approval rating of approximately 45 to 46%.  If unemployment drops by an even more significant rate, and the public becomes increasingly frustrated with the GOP in Congress, look for his approval to increase by an even greater rate.  

It is easy to count out Barack Obama; however, I believe but attitude is beginning to change and people are beginning to see the real problems within our government, and understand that this President is trying to help and is trying to make things better for the middle class.

   

Obama v. Romney...The Big Picture

As of today, September 20, 2011, the Obama/Romney raced has been the most frequently and consistently polled contest since the beginning of 2011.  This is no surprise because he has been the front runner for quite a long time, and has basically been running for president since 2007.  In total, the race has been polled in 36 of the 50 states since late January of this year.  Most of the results are not too surprising; however, given the current standing of the President's approval ratings and the state of the economy, Obama seems to be in much better shape than most think he is.  The caveat to most of this data is that in several states there has been only one or two polls taken, and it is still very early in the cycle.  This is merely meant to give a snapshot understanding of where the polls have placed the two candidates as of this moment in time.

So, there is the list of the current aggregate data (in order from Obama's highest positive differential)

This current data would yield Obama 290 Electoral Votes and Romney 142 Electoral Votes.  This puts Obama over the 270 EV threshold for a victory in 2012.  This of course does not count the states which do not have any polling data to be analyzed.  If those states were to be allocated to the party which won them in the previous cycle, the final results would be Obama 341, Romney 194.  

Some of the states which are worth taking a look at, in my estimation, are Iowa, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Ohio, North Carolina, Nevada, Florida, Virginia, New Hampshire, and Missouri.

Most conventional wisdom is that some of the most traditionally Democratic states (i.e. Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Ohio) are some of the most vulnerable states for Obama to lose in 2012.  However, he is doing better in these states than the ones which he won that had been Republican (most notably North Carolina and Virginia).

Although given this polling data, Obama would win a big re-election, it is important to note that his numbers for many of the 'Toss-Up' states are in the mid-40s, which is not very high given his incumbent status.  However, one must also take into account that summers are usually a period of low polling and approval for both candidate and President Obama.  Taking all of these factors into account, along with the increasingly more populist message being taken by the president, I believe Obama is in a favorable position for the upcoming election, which is now just under 14 months away!!

More on Romney and Obama to come soon! ( The issues matter of course!)

2012 Election Predictions

Starting tomorrow, I will unveil my current view (for what it's worth) of the 2012 landscape, based primarily on polling data from recent weeks and months.  My focus will be on general election match-ups.  Given the wide variety of GOP candidates and hopefuls, and the limited amount of time which I can devote to this hobby of mine, I will focus on the following races in particular: Obama v. Romney, Obama v. Perry, and Obama v. Bachmann.  Should another candidate emerge, I have data, but I will only present these cases right now, as they seem most likely at the moment.  Given the current atmosphere, the results may surprise you!

Let's Stand Up For Something

I understand that there is a difference between what is said and done during a campaign and what is practically possible as a president.  I understand the realities and difficulties that inherently come with leading a nation over over 300 million people with about 600 million different views.  And don't get me wrong, I was and am a supporter of President Obama and I will be actively campaigning for him leading up to the 2012 election.  But I do feel a little hamstrung and frustrated when looking back at the campaigner Obama and his principles and values, and his lack of standing up for those principles, in totality, over the last two years.

Now I also have to say that often when I have heard Democrats criticize Obama for not doing enough, I have refuted their words and one only has to look at the long list of accomplishments to see how much he really has done (i.e. health care, gay rights, fair pay, etc).  However, being one who believes in liberal values as a means of making a more equal and fair society for all of America's people, there are several things which continue to bother me in a real way.  This video, that I saw on the Rachel Maddow Show really sums it up.

I am also not the sort of person who is surprised by any amount of compromise because I know there are real difficulties in sticking to principles when you have to work with others.  But there are important issues which the president should stick to, especially because they are related to the advancement of the working, middle class.  Sticking to these principles would not only help people on a basal level, but it would undoubtedly help him politically.  According to a recent NBC/Wall Street Journal poll, liberal policies are markedly more popular than conservative ones, and people would much rather millionaires taxed at higher levels than cuts in infrastructure, education, and other investments that would make America a better place to live.  But why don't Obama and the 'main stream' of the Democratic party push harder on these issues?  It truly does not seem to make sense, and its frustrating that they too are playing into the easy story, what would be the path of least resistance. 

In America, both in politics and in everyday life, we must make the difficult choices and decide whether we want a better lives for ourselves and our nation, or if we want to take this path of least resistance, follow the popular media meme, and try to win according to those rules.  The problem with this is that if you are truly a liberal and in favor of progressive policies, and you attempt to play with these rules you are going to get run over and run out of power because you are not following the principles of the values you say you adhere to.  It is difficult to try to change the rules of the game, but it is not impossible and if we really want to advance the liberal policies which would undoubtedly change the country, each one of us must stand up, call for real change, and remind Obama what his campaign was about and what his presidency is supposed to be about.

Republican Chances

So, just perusing my blogroll and two headlines jumped out to me.  The first was from MSNBC saying that Senator John Thune (R-SD) will not run for president and that in a Minnesota poll Donald Trump (all of a sudden R) is beating Former Gov. Sarah Palin (R-AK).  What these two headlines say to me is that the Republican field of candidates is very weak, and their chances of winning a presidential election are not good.  Now you might say, why would these two headlines be so telling well I have my reasons.

First, John Thune is a great looking candidate.  Well spoken, young, he's been in the Senate for seven years, spent nothing on his re-election last year, and would make a great candidate for the Republicans.  This being said, by him not jumping in, he's reading the tea leaves, and they're saying that the Republicans have no shot in 2012.  If they did, he would have jumped in, the time would have been ripe for him, but he chose to forgo this cycle and I believe he will shoot for 2016.

Second, if Donald Trump, someone who can not be any less serious about or interested in politics, is defeating Sarah Palin, who obviously has her flaws, but is a political figure, in a Republican primary poll, you have to ask yourself...what are the Republicans thinking?  They seem very disorganized and very scattered with regard to who they want to represent their party and what kind of candidate they want to run for president.  The question for them becomes purity or popularity, and if they choose purity they will certainly lose the election in 2012.

Now I'm not saying that its a slam dunk for Democrats. They certainly have their own problems, but its really all about the candidate, and given these two articles at least it seems the Republicans can't figure much out.   I believe if you see less and less 'establishment' Republican candidates decide to forgo this cycle, it will just prove my earlier point, and the chances of a Republican president in 2012 will continue to diminish.

AL, CO, FL, IL, NC Updates

Tuesday (6/8/2010):
NC: PPP 6/5 601 Cunningham 35% Burr 46%; Marshall 39% Burr 46%
RAS 6/3 500 Cunningham 35% Burr 47%; Marshall 36% Burr 50%
Would like to see Burr's numbers lower, he's been hovering around 46% this whole cycle. I think Marshall would definitely be a better candidate for the Dems, although neither Dem can seem to break the 40% mark just yet. Right now this seat will probably stay GOP, but its early and Burr does not have strong support whatsoever, so its a long shot but could be a surprise win for Dems.
--> Remains Favored Republican with Burr over Cunningham +8.5% and Burr over Marshall +6.5%

AL: RAS 6/3 500 Barnes 31% Shelby 58%;
-->Safe Republican Shelby over Barnes +24.8%

Wednesday (6/9/2010):
FL: QUIN 6/4 1,133 Meek 17% Crist 37% Rubio 33%
RAS 6/7 500 Meek 15% Crist 37% Rubio 37%
-->Toss Up: Crist over Rubio +1.3

CO: RAS 6/7 500 Bennet 40% Norton 46%
Bennet 41% Buck 46%
Romanoff 42% Norton 43%
Romanoff 39% Buck 45%
--> Race shifts from Leans Democrat to Toss Up Bennet over Norton +.4%, Bennet over Buck +2.6%, Romanoff over Norton +2.0%, and Romanoff over Buck +.6%

IL: RAS 6/7 500 Giannoulias 39% Kirk 42%
--> Race shifts from Leans Republican to Toss Up Kirk over Giannoulias +2.0%

Race Ratings-Quick Edition

So I have been doing some polling analysis using my method from the 2008 election for the 2010 Senatorial election cycle in a variety of states with competitive and non competitive races. I just wanted to put some of my ratings out there. There won't be deep analysis just yet, maybe a line or two where needed to explain myself if you think I'm crazy. I hope to do an analysis of each race at different times throughout the next few weeks but here's my snapshot as of today June 4, 2010.

Safe Democrat: VT, MD, HI, NY-A (Schumer), NY-B (Gillibrand +24), OR (+13)
Very Likely Democrat: CT(Blumenthal +20)
Leans Democrat: CA (+6.5)
WA (+3)
WI (+2..but very little polling, and I don't quite trust it)
Toss-Up: CO (D+2.5)
NV (D+4.5..this is if Angle wins, if either other candidate wins it will be much closer but they're both about D+1)
OH (D+1.6)
PA (R+.5...this just switched back R after a RAS poll that was off base with others, right now i would rate this a tossup but give the edge to Sestak)
MO (R+1.2...just got a new poll showing this race super tight, still give edge to Reps though)
IL (R+3.3...no polling since the Kirk fumble-a-thon, so likely to change)
NC (R+1.5...this is with Elaine Marshall, she's in a run-off with Cal Cunningham, Cunningham right now gives this a R+5.3, could be a surprise pick up for Dems)
KY (R+8.1...inflated because of a RAS poll that was most definitely an outlier, should be closer, still give Rep an edge)
Leans Republican: NH (R+11.8...I can't believe Ayotte's numbers being this high in a state like NH I see this getting closer)
AR (R+15 with Halter, +23 with Boozman...very uphill for Dems but it is a Dem seat, hopefully Halter can pull one out)
FL (R+2 over Indy, R+16 over Dem...either way Rubio is stalling out, and Crist could caucus with the Dems after his nasty fight with GOPers in Florida and nationally, should be interesting)
Likely Republican: IA (R+10.7...should remain Republican but not a poll since early May when the Dem seemed to be making up ground)
IN (R+16.5...Bayh was the only shot Dems had in my opinion, this seat will most likely go back to GOP haven't seen a poll in awhile though)
LA (almost no polling, especially recently, Melancon hopes hadn't looked good though, but his recent public advocacy with regard to the oil spill may increase chances, have to wait to see)
Most Likely Republican: SC (R+19...should be solid for Republicans, but DeMint is under 50 and his radicalness might make this race closer, also the only poll shows most people do not know the Dem challenger)
AZ (R+29...very safe with McCain, but if Hayworth win he may have the same problem as DeMint, he is still up R+16)
Safe Republican: AL (R+25.5), GA (R+27), AK, ID, UT, SD, KS, OK, DE (Horrible to see this seat switch, would like to see a poll still), ND (Very sad to see Dorgan retire, and to lose this seat)

So...what would the Senate look like under this current forecast...Dems: 54 GOP: 46...Dems lose/GOP Gain: DE, ND, IN, AR, IL, PA...Dems Gain/GOP Lose: OH

Its still very early, and a lot can happen things are already swinging back toward the Democrats, Congressionally at least, so we'll see what happens. Hope you found this somewhat insightful.

Pennsylvania Senate Race

The Pennsylvania Senate Race in 2010 has generated much interest since Arlen Specter recently switched from the Republican to the Democratic Party. I recently began doing my poll analysis, the method can be seen below, and it seems that Arlen Specter, the blue line, has a large lead over the Republican favorite, and far right candidate, Pat Toomey. Now this data was compiled from polls dating from April 29 to May 6 from the firms, in order, Quinnipiac, Susquehanna, POS, and DailyKos/Research2000. The data shows a firm lead for the Democrat in a state that has been becoming increasingly Democratic over the past decade. Now all of this poll data is based on Arlen Specter successfully securing the Democratic nomination, which is anything but certain. The most discussed contender is Joe Sestak, a Congressman from the state, who had made his interest in the seat known. As of now, Specter is the favorite, and Sestak has not said whether he will enter the race, yet I'm sure many Democrats are hoping he does, for Specter's support among the Democratic base is not particularly strong given his history, which includes 40 years as a Republican. The Research 2000 poll shows this bearing out, where Specters solid support is quite small, particularly compared to his soft support, which may move to Sestak. Either way, Specter leads Sestak 56% to 11%, but given this other information we can see an easy scenario where Sestak could seep up Specter's soft support to a point where he wins the Democratic primary, which is about one year away. So as of the now, the seat seems safe Democratic, the question will be just how Democratic it will be, whether the nominee is Specter or Sestak.

What My Electoral Predictions Are About

Hello all,

My name is Chris Comninel and I am extremely interested in this year's presidential election, as I believe many other American citizens are. Last cycle (2004), I was only 17 and was not able to vote; however, I was very in tune with the political process and the particulars of the outcome of the electoral college.

This sincere interest in the process, and a particular candidate, I decided to be as informed as possible about the election, and state polling, for it would be state polling that would most accurately gage the possible outcomes of the election. I searched for some type of averaging formula, but at the time could not think of a good empirical formula. Of course I did give more weight to more recent polls, and gave more weight to polls which had a larger sample size. Given the lack of such a particular formula, I was pretty accurate in noting that Ohio would be within about a point (I have an excel spreadsheet to prove it).

So this election cycle, I thought I would get specific and try to figure out a proper method of averaging the state polls, which are coming out in great numbers due to increased interest. So I followed my weighting stated above, with regard to recentness, but it still had much to be desired so, I did some research and found a remarkable idea, which is currently used at 538.com, a half-life formula of 30 days. Also, I am using a weighting number, given to each poll, based on primary accuracy, with the most accurate organization receiving a number of 3, and decreasing at a rate according to pollster ratings on 538.com.

So here is my methodology, and I am crediting 538.com, for a lot of help in this process. First, my base poll, is a SurveyUSA poll conducted from 2/26-2/28 in all 50 states. Then, there is a jump for most states to mid May, when it was pretty clear who each party's nominee would be, to the most recent poll I could find in a given state. For each poll, I multiply the 1) recentness number, 2) poll accuracy number, 3) the sample size number, and 4) the candidate's percentage received. This gives each candidate a "Multiplication Number." For each candidate, the "Mult Nums." are summed up and divided by a number created by multiplying the 1) recentness number, 2) poll accuracy number, and 3) the sample size number. This gives each candidate an average percentage. The numbers change each time a new poll is introduced.

This is different from 538's predictions because I do not factor in regression data, because although we can understand something from prior elections, I believe each election is unique and has factors which make it such. For example, in '96 and '04, we were dealing with incumbents and any election is going to favor an incumbent because of his great amount of resources. Also, my predictions change daily and are solely based on my averages, and not trend lines. This may change in the future, but because it it so early trends may be exaggerated in a particular direction.

I am doing this solely for my own interests and I am posting it just so its out there. If you find it interesting, thats great, if not, I still do. In coming days, I will post current averages in varying states, and have a little bit of commentary on each average.

Thanks for reading.