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Showing posts with label politics. Show all posts
Showing posts with label politics. Show all posts

Saturday, October 29, 2011

10/29/11 Saturday Polling Update!

So a normal slow polling Saturday gives us two polls, both daily tracking polls of the president's approval/disapproval...

1) Gallup 1500 Adults 10/26-10/28, 42% approve, 51% disapprove

2) Rasmussen 1500 LV 10/26-10/28, 46% approve, 52% disapprove

While these aren't the best numbers, they continue to show an improvement in the president's standing. The Rasmussen poll is promising and shows a marked increase from days prior showing Friday was a good day for Obama. I expect this to continue to happen especially with the multitude of political news stories out there are about the ineptness of the GOP primary field and their party's intransigence in the Congress.

Friday, October 28, 2011

Obama's Approval by December

President Barack Obama will have a net neutral approval rating by December, and here's why.  

It has been a rough almost three years for Barack Obama.  There's no doubt that Obama has faced a great deal of scrutiny, from all angles, since the beginning of his presidency.  Additionally, since the GOP took control of the House of Representatives, it has been increasingly difficult for him to get any of his bills, initiatives, or policy plans passed in Congress.  Not surprisingly, as a consequence of this barrage of negative attention, Obama's approval ratings have suffered greatly.  

According to Gallup, from July to September, President Obama's average approval rating stood at a very weak 41%.  This was most likely a result of relatively high and stagnant unemployment, media hyped fears of a double dip recession, continual reports of low economic growth, and a Republican field taking up all of the oxygen on the news, using most of their time to denigrate the president in any way they could.  Of course, additionally, there is the constant anti-Obama/anti-government chatter that you will here wherever you go.  

However, things are starting to look up for the president.  Taking a look at the current polling data on the approval of Barack Obama's job as president, beginning in October, and extrapolating the current trend line of the these polls there is a lot of hope that these 'underwater' numbers will reverse themselves, and it will not take relatively long for this to happen.  

Obama started the month of October with an approval rating of around 41.5% with a disapproval rating of around 54% (This was found by using a logarithmic regression of over thirty polls from October 2 to October 26).  Doing some quick math would tell you that his net approval rating around negative twelve and a half percent (12.5%).  This number is not only disheartening to supporters of the President, but not a good omen when the election is thirteen months away.  However, several things have happened since the beginning of the month, and as a result so have the President's fortunes.  As of today, October 28, President Obama's approval is around 43%, with a disapproval of ~51.5%, or a net approval of negative eight and a half percent (8.5%).  This is a dramatic and impressive, but not unexpected, rebound for the president, and there are several reasons why I believe this has happened. 

Since the beginning of the month, Obama has taken out two of the world's most dangerous leaders in Anwar al-Awlaki and Muomar Khaddafi, which has only continued to strengthen his foreign policy credentials both abroad and at home.  This is proof for independents that Obama's policy can be successful, and that they may be giving him a second look.  Additionally, the President announced the that by the end of the year, all US troops will be withdrawn from Iraq, an action which a majority of American's believe is well overdue.  This move hypothetically would increase Obama's approval among a variety of different groups, from liberals and libertarians who never liked to the war, to independents and conservatives who have grown increasingly sour of the war.  

While these moves have likely helped Obama, the economy is the lead story, and what happens in the country with regards to the economy will have the greatest impact on his reelection chances and his approval ratings in general.  In that vain, there have been several recent reports and polls which have shown that the stagnancy of the economy may be coming to an end, and that the fears of a double dip recession may have been well overblown.  Last quarter, advance estimates show that the GDP grew at a rate of about 2.5%, which while not great, is much better than many thought it would be.  Additionally, a recent Gallup study showed that unemployment may have decreased by a significant rate in October, a study which the jobs report will hopefully confirm this coming Friday.  Consumers hear more positive news and as a result, have a more positive attitude about, which can only help the President.

Both domestically and with regard to foreign policy, there are concrete reasons to help understand this increase; however, I believe the political narrative has much more to do with it that anything.  If one looks at the events of the past month, several narratives emerge.  First, the President is among the people, and getting things done.  Since early September, Barack Obama has been on the road through many states all over the country promoting and explaining his jobs bill, rallying his base, and showing the American people that he is trying to get something positive done in Washington.  Additionally, Obama has shown an increasingly assertive tone by deciding to implement policy through executive order and directly confront those in Congress who continue to block progressive and positive action.  While this is happening the media is also continuing to focus on the Republican primary.  On its face, this might seem to be a benefit for the Republican candidates, as many of them will become more well known and their views will be available for public consumption.  However, it seems that the more people get to see of candidates such as Michelle Bachmann, Rick Perry, and Herman Cain, the less they like, as these candidates do not seem serious, practical, or realistic options for the presidency of the United States.  Once again, Barack Obama looks stronger compared to these candidates, and among independents becomes a more viable and practical choice for reelection. 

Given these three narratives, it is not surprising to see President Obama's approval ratings on the rise.  If the economy continues to grow, particularly through the holiday season, and the President continues to stress the importance of the passage of a comprehensive jobs bill to an increasingly intransigent Republican led House of Representatives, his approval will only continue to rise.  The trend suggests that by mid to late December, Barack Obama will have a neutral net Approval rating of approximately 45 to 46%.  If unemployment drops by an even more significant rate, and the public becomes increasingly frustrated with the GOP in Congress, look for his approval to increase by an even greater rate.  

It is easy to count out Barack Obama; however, I believe but attitude is beginning to change and people are beginning to see the real problems within our government, and understand that this President is trying to help and is trying to make things better for the middle class.


   

Tuesday, September 20, 2011

Obama v. Romney...The Big Picture

As of today, September 20, 2011, the Obama/Romney raced has been the most frequently and consistently polled contest since the beginning of 2011.  This is no surprise because he has been the front runner for quite a long time, and has basically been running for president since 2007.  In total, the race has been polled in 36 of the 50 states since late January of this year.  Most of the results are not too surprising; however, given the current standing of the President's approval ratings and the state of the economy, Obama seems to be in much better shape than most think he is.  The caveat to most of this data is that in several states there has been only one or two polls taken, and it is still very early in the cycle.  This is merely meant to give a snapshot understanding of where the polls have placed the two candidates as of this moment in time.

So, there is the list of the current aggregate data (in order from Obama's highest positive differential)


This current data would yield Obama 290 Electoral Votes and Romney 142 Electoral Votes.  This puts Obama over the 270 EV threshold for a victory in 2012.  This of course does not count the states which do not have any polling data to be analyzed.  If those states were to be allocated to the party which won them in the previous cycle, the final results would be Obama 341, Romney 194.  

Some of the states which are worth taking a look at, in my estimation, are Iowa, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Ohio, North Carolina, Nevada, Florida, Virginia, New Hampshire, and Missouri.

Most conventional wisdom is that some of the most traditionally Democratic states (i.e. Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Ohio) are some of the most vulnerable states for Obama to lose in 2012.  However, he is doing better in these states than the ones which he won that had been Republican (most notably North Carolina and Virginia).

Although given this polling data, Obama would win a big re-election, it is important to note that his numbers for many of the 'Toss-Up' states are in the mid-40s, which is not very high given his incumbent status.  However, one must also take into account that summers are usually a period of low polling and approval for both candidate and President Obama.  Taking all of these factors into account, along with the increasingly more populist message being taken by the president, I believe Obama is in a favorable position for the upcoming election, which is now just under 14 months away!!


More on Romney and Obama to come soon! ( The issues matter of course!)

Monday, September 19, 2011

2012 Election Predictions

Starting tomorrow, I will unveil my current view (for what it's worth) of the 2012 landscape, based primarily on polling data from recent weeks and months.  My focus will be on general election match-ups.  Given the wide variety of GOP candidates and hopefuls, and the limited amount of time which I can devote to this hobby of mine, I will focus on the following races in particular: Obama v. Romney, Obama v. Perry, and Obama v. Bachmann.  Should another candidate emerge, I have data, but I will only present these cases right now, as they seem most likely at the moment.  Given the current atmosphere, the results may surprise you!


Tuesday, April 5, 2011

A People's History Through the Story of One

Recently, I read The Last Campaign by Thurston Clarke, a book which discusses, in depth, the 1968 campaign of Bobby Kennedy for the presidency of the United States.  Though his campaign only lasted 82 days and took place 43 years ago, it still resonates deeply with me as a text about both that time and ours.  Below is my review of the book and a short video which encapsulates its importance for me.  Please read and watch!


A People’s History Through the Story of One
 
            One of the most important lessons which I have learned throughout my study of history, political science, and social studies education is that it is absolutely essential to look at the stories of multiple people to get an accurate picture of a time period.  The understanding of multiple perspectives and view points on any historical event is needed to see the true picture, and avoid being biased in any study of said event or topic.  Therefore, whenever one reads a book which is seemingly about one person, the reader must approach that book with some skepticism that that story is not the whole story, and there may not be a discussion of the multiple perspectives needed to come to a real understanding of the material.  This is the approach which I took reading Thurston Clarke’s The Last Campaign: Robert F. Kennedy and 82 Days that Inspired America, a book which centers around Robert F. Kennedy’s 1968 campaign for the presidency of the United States.  One might come to this book thinking it is solely about Bobby Kennedy and the strategies and tactics which he made during his campaign and how they affected and influenced America, ultimately concluding with his death in June 1968.  However, this book turns out to be the complete reverse, instead focusing on how the many different types and of men and women from all races and classes throughout society impacted his campaign and how he in turn made them the focal point of his mission, to win the Democratic nomination for president.  Clarke is able to bring the reader an understanding of 1968, a year which is commonly known as tumultuous, that encompasses all aspects of society and discusses the challenges that people of America and the world were facing at this time.  What makes this book truly interesting is that he does this through the lens of a political campaign, but what becomes apparent while reading the book, this political campaign was like no other.
            Of course, when looking at any book about history or politics, one should immediately become aware of the argument the author is attempting to make and the goals which he is trying to reach through his writing.  In the opening of The Last Campaign, Clarke describes some of the ills facing the United States that came to bear throughout the 1960s, and in doing so he is laying a groundwork through which the reader is able to understand why the campaign of Robert Kennedy was so needed to raise the hopes of the people, in his opinion.  The means by which he describes these issues troubling the nation is even more enlightening, as he does so through a description of the many people lined along railroad tracks who came to give RFK a final farewell as his body traveled from New York to Washington, DC three days following his assassination in California.  One passage describes how deep the admiration was stating:
Passengers stared out the windows and saw men in undershirts, sport shirts, uniforms, and suits: crying, standing at attention and holding their hard hats over their hearts.  They saw women in madras shorts, housedresses, and Sunday dresses: weeping, kneeling, covering their faces, and holding up children as if telling them, “You look at Robert Kennedy, and that’s the way you should lead your life” (Clarke 4).  
It is absolutely essential to the argument of the book that the reader understands the breadth and the depth of the impact of RFK and his campaign.  With that understanding, the refrain which Clarke keeps returning to, in some form or another, is the question, “What did he have that he could do this to people?” (Clarke 6).  Throughout the rest of the book he attempts to answer this question and show people today the inspiration which was inherent in the campaign and the man himself.  In doing so he achieves something much more important, and allows the reader to get a sense of what the people of the late 1960s were actually going through and brings real historical empathy to picture, allowing us to better take something meaningful from the text, apart from the greatness of the man.
            The structure of the book is important to the story which Clarke paints of the campaign, of the man, and of the people who were affected by actions and the words of Bobby Kennedy.  He lays out the book, initially, as a framework of the campaign by beginning with the Prologue: June 8, 1968 in which he describes the adoration most had for RFK and his broader impact on the people of America, primarily those in the middle class.  He follows with seventeen more chapters, each subtitled with the dates in which he is focusing that discussion around.  This helps to facilitate the chronology for the reader and gives a real sense of how quick the campaign started, progressed, and was finished.  Throughout he interweaves the challenges and successes of both Robert Kennedy and the people of the United States.  He does this in a way which brings the reader back into the campaign by including first hand quotes from Kennedy’s closest advisors and confidants, while also embracing the words of everyday people, which may have only met the man for a brief moment, but for whom he had the largest impact.  By structuring the book according to chronology, and by integrating a multitude of stories from all different perspectives, the reader is really able to see the impact which Kennedy had on people and the way he touched peopled.  However, a lesson which one should also take from the book is the degree to which other people touched and influenced Bobby Kennedy and how this in turn created a bond between him and the people that has not been seen since his campaign in early 1968.  This is not only an important lesson in politics, but also in history as it is becoming increasingly important to see and realize the significance of all people in shaping and guiding history, and how people in power can work with people of the masses to create a society and discussion that helps advance the cause of the nation. 
            As mentioned before, the content of the book is not simply a political discussion of what to do and how to run a successful campaign, but rather it is a complex and inspiring narrative of a man, his conflicting thoughts, and the people which drove him to fight for them.  Through the progression of the book the reader gets a real and personal sense of Bobby Kennedy and the many forces which influenced his decision to run for president and the perpetual fears and complications which followed his announcement to run in the Democratic primary.  One only needs to look at the chapter titles to see the conflict that came with the campaign and the hopes and fears of the people that manifested themselves as throughout the Spring of 1968.  These chapters include, in order, “No Choice, ‘He’s Going All the Way,’ ‘Bobby Ain’t Jack,’ The Era of Good Feelings, A Prayer for Our Country, [and] ‘Guns Between Me and the White House’” (Clarke).  In each of these chapters, as well as the rest of the book, the reader gets a sense of the back and forth between the wonderful hope and promise of his campaign and the inexorable fear and fatality that filled his campaign and his supporters’ thoughts and dreams.  This is most clearly seen in Clarke’s account of a conversation between Jimmy Breslin, a campaign aid, and John Lindsay a reporter covering the campaign. When Breslin asked, “Do you think this guy [Kennedy] has the stuff to go all the way?” Lindsay replied, “Yes, of course he has the stuff to go all the way…but he’s not going all the way.  The reason is that somebody is going to shoot him.  I know it and you know it…And, please God, I don’t think we’ll have a country after it” (Clarke 50).  This is a stunning reality for someone who was not alive at the time because it is unimaginable to think that someone who was as popular a political figure was not assured safety.  This one comment, along with the multitude of stories and recollections from people who experienced the era really brings the reader a sense of the tumult that was a part of everyday life for people in the late 1960s.  Clarke employs Kennedy’s campaign as a means to both mitigate and describe this turmoil and does so effectively. 
            As with any book, there are some areas where possible criticisms can be found, and places in which one must look at the text critically.  In The Last Campaign, one can argue that the author takes a position and primarily uses people who were close to Robert Kennedy as sources, and as a result is overly praiseworthy of the man and his message.  However, while Clarke is undoubtedly biased in favor of Kennedy, he does a good job attempting to enlighten the audience to the point of view of the critics of Bobby.  He does this several times throughout the book, whether it was prior to his entry into the presidential race, where he mentions people calling him “ruthless and opportunistic,” or the attitude of many people after he joined the race that he could never live up to his brother (Clarke 37, 54).  These are definitely not positive words to associate with any man, but Clarke does lay out the argument that is against him in order to build a greater picture of the time for the audience.  Even as he does this, he consistently attempts to show how Bobby overcame these criticisms and proved a lot of people wrong.  Similarly, one may say that the book focuses too much on Robert Kennedy.  However, any book which is biographical is, inherently, going to be about that person and their experiences at any given time.  In contrast, Clarke does not solely discuss the subject, and attempts to bring into view the larger context of the era in which he is writing about through primary quotations and observations from numerous sources of those who were close to the subject and of those who simply experienced his campaign in an auxiliary manner.  This sets it apart from other books which are centered around one man or women and makes it more impactful for the audience.
            The Last Campaign by Thurston Clarke is a complex and thoughtful story, not only about the 1968 presidential campaign of Robert F. Kennedy, but also about the people who were influenced and who, in turn, influenced the man and his message.  It works as a wonderful social history describing the challenges and hope embodied in the 1960s and particularly in 1968.  The author is able to answer his question and show the audience what was and continues to be special about Robert Kennedy.                          

 


Sunday, March 6, 2011

Let's Stand Up For Something

I understand that there is a difference between what is said and done during a campaign and what is practically possible as a president.  I understand the realities and difficulties that inherently come with leading a nation over over 300 million people with about 600 million different views.  And don't get me wrong, I was and am a supporter of President Obama and I will be actively campaigning for him leading up to the 2012 election.  But I do feel a little hamstrung and frustrated when looking back at the campaigner Obama and his principles and values, and his lack of standing up for those principles, in totality, over the last two years.

Now I also have to say that often when I have heard Democrats criticize Obama for not doing enough, I have refuted their words and one only has to look at the long list of accomplishments to see how much he really has done (i.e. health care, gay rights, fair pay, etc).  However, being one who believes in liberal values as a means of making a more equal and fair society for all of America's people, there are several things which continue to bother me in a real way.  This video, that I saw on the Rachel Maddow Show really sums it up.

I am also not the sort of person who is surprised by any amount of compromise because I know there are real difficulties in sticking to principles when you have to work with others.  But there are important issues which the president should stick to, especially because they are related to the advancement of the working, middle class.  Sticking to these principles would not only help people on a basal level, but it would undoubtedly help him politically.  According to a recent NBC/Wall Street Journal poll, liberal policies are markedly more popular than conservative ones, and people would much rather millionaires taxed at higher levels than cuts in infrastructure, education, and other investments that would make America a better place to live.  But why don't Obama and the 'main stream' of the Democratic party push harder on these issues?  It truly does not seem to make sense, and its frustrating that they too are playing into the easy story, what would be the path of least resistance. 

In America, both in politics and in everyday life, we must make the difficult choices and decide whether we want a better lives for ourselves and our nation, or if we want to take this path of least resistance, follow the popular media meme, and try to win according to those rules.  The problem with this is that if you are truly a liberal and in favor of progressive policies, and you attempt to play with these rules you are going to get run over and run out of power because you are not following the principles of the values you say you adhere to.  It is difficult to try to change the rules of the game, but it is not impossible and if we really want to advance the liberal policies which would undoubtedly change the country, each one of us must stand up, call for real change, and remind Obama what his campaign was about and what his presidency is supposed to be about.



Friday, February 25, 2011

My 2012 Forecasting

With the balance of power in government being so delicate and next year, 2012, be such a critical year with regard to the same, it is important for those interested in politics to engage in debate, discussion, and conversation about the elections and events which lead up to them.  This is something which I will once again attempt to do, hopefully more consistently.  As a result, I will attempt to shed some light on House, Senate, and Presidential races on a state to state basis.  In doing so, I will attempt to take various different resources, sites, and views to draw up a bigger picture take on the politics at play and the impact they will have on the elections over the next two years.  Over the next couple of days, I will be posting on different races that peak my interest and where they stand now.  Be on the look out!

Tuesday, February 22, 2011

Republican Chances

So, just perusing my blogroll and two headlines jumped out to me.  The first was from MSNBC saying that Senator John Thune (R-SD) will not run for president and that in a Minnesota poll Donald Trump (all of a sudden R) is beating Former Gov. Sarah Palin (R-AK).  What these two headlines say to me is that the Republican field of candidates is very weak, and their chances of winning a presidential election are not good.  Now you might say, why would these two headlines be so telling well I have my reasons.

First, John Thune is a great looking candidate.  Well spoken, young, he's been in the Senate for seven years, spent nothing on his re-election last year, and would make a great candidate for the Republicans.  This being said, by him not jumping in, he's reading the tea leaves, and they're saying that the Republicans have no shot in 2012.  If they did, he would have jumped in, the time would have been ripe for him, but he chose to forgo this cycle and I believe he will shoot for 2016.

Second, if Donald Trump, someone who can not be any less serious about or interested in politics, is defeating Sarah Palin, who obviously has her flaws, but is a political figure, in a Republican primary poll, you have to ask yourself...what are the Republicans thinking?  They seem very disorganized and very scattered with regard to who they want to represent their party and what kind of candidate they want to run for president.  The question for them becomes purity or popularity, and if they choose purity they will certainly lose the election in 2012.

Now I'm not saying that its a slam dunk for Democrats. They certainly have their own problems, but its really all about the candidate, and given these two articles at least it seems the Republicans can't figure much out.   I believe if you see less and less 'establishment' Republican candidates decide to forgo this cycle, it will just prove my earlier point, and the chances of a Republican president in 2012 will continue to diminish.

Monday, February 21, 2011

A Question For Everyone...

Often times when thinking about history or politics, we come into the discussion with preconceived notions that shape or guide our viewpoints.  My question is where do these viewpoints come from?  More specifically, what shapes how YOU see the world around us and the views YOU take on the political issues of the day?

What it's All About...For the Foreseeable Future

In this blog, I will comment on news worthy political stories and their real impact on people, as well as its place in history.  I love history and politics, and have very strong stances about the study and implementation of both.  I will use this interest, along with my intense interest in elections, to hopefully make insightful and useful comments on the events which shape our everyday lives.  I have a bias, as do we all, but as future teacher and serious follower of history and politics I will attempt to be as partial as can be!

Friday, June 4, 2010

Race Ratings-Quick Edition

So I have been doing some polling analysis using my method from the 2008 election for the 2010 Senatorial election cycle in a variety of states with competitive and non competitive races. I just wanted to put some of my ratings out there. There won't be deep analysis just yet, maybe a line or two where needed to explain myself if you think I'm crazy. I hope to do an analysis of each race at different times throughout the next few weeks but here's my snapshot as of today June 4, 2010.

Safe Democrat: VT, MD, HI, NY-A (Schumer), NY-B (Gillibrand +24), OR (+13)
Very Likely Democrat: CT(Blumenthal +20)
Leans Democrat: CA (+6.5)
WA (+3)
WI (+2..but very little polling, and I don't quite trust it)
Toss-Up: CO (D+2.5)
NV (D+4.5..this is if Angle wins, if either other candidate wins it will be much closer but they're both about D+1)
OH (D+1.6)
PA (R+.5...this just switched back R after a RAS poll that was off base with others, right now i would rate this a tossup but give the edge to Sestak)
MO (R+1.2...just got a new poll showing this race super tight, still give edge to Reps though)
IL (R+3.3...no polling since the Kirk fumble-a-thon, so likely to change)
NC (R+1.5...this is with Elaine Marshall, she's in a run-off with Cal Cunningham, Cunningham right now gives this a R+5.3, could be a surprise pick up for Dems)
KY (R+8.1...inflated because of a RAS poll that was most definitely an outlier, should be closer, still give Rep an edge)
Leans Republican: NH (R+11.8...I can't believe Ayotte's numbers being this high in a state like NH I see this getting closer)
AR (R+15 with Halter, +23 with Boozman...very uphill for Dems but it is a Dem seat, hopefully Halter can pull one out)
FL (R+2 over Indy, R+16 over Dem...either way Rubio is stalling out, and Crist could caucus with the Dems after his nasty fight with GOPers in Florida and nationally, should be interesting)
Likely Republican: IA (R+10.7...should remain Republican but not a poll since early May when the Dem seemed to be making up ground)
IN (R+16.5...Bayh was the only shot Dems had in my opinion, this seat will most likely go back to GOP haven't seen a poll in awhile though)
LA (almost no polling, especially recently, Melancon hopes hadn't looked good though, but his recent public advocacy with regard to the oil spill may increase chances, have to wait to see)
Most Likely Republican: SC (R+19...should be solid for Republicans, but DeMint is under 50 and his radicalness might make this race closer, also the only poll shows most people do not know the Dem challenger)
AZ (R+29...very safe with McCain, but if Hayworth win he may have the same problem as DeMint, he is still up R+16)
Safe Republican: AL (R+25.5), GA (R+27), AK, ID, UT, SD, KS, OK, DE (Horrible to see this seat switch, would like to see a poll still), ND (Very sad to see Dorgan retire, and to lose this seat)

So...what would the Senate look like under this current forecast...Dems: 54 GOP: 46...Dems lose/GOP Gain: DE, ND, IN, AR, IL, PA...Dems Gain/GOP Lose: OH

Its still very early, and a lot can happen things are already swinging back toward the Democrats, Congressionally at least, so we'll see what happens. Hope you found this somewhat insightful.

Tuesday, May 18, 2010

Primary Day (PA, AR, KY Edition) 2010

Okay, so a couple of big primaries were today, most notably, the Democratic and Republican primaries in Kentucky, and the Democratic primaries in Pennsylvania and Arkansas. Adding to this insane amount of interesting political events was the special election in PA-12 which the Republicans were hoping to win to help boost their national meme that people are angry and the GOP will be their savior. They turned out to be wrong.

So the big deal of the night is that Democrats, and more importantly progressives and liberals, win tonight. Why? Well in Kentucky, Paul (Tea bagger) won for the GOP and Conway won for the Dems, and according to all of the polls out of that state pre-primary, this is the best match up for the Democrats. Also, even bigger Paul's defeat over the establishment candidate in the Republican party, which will undoubtedly bring into question the validity of Congressional Republicans, which only helps Democrats.

In Arkansas, the more progressive candidate Bill Halter held Wal-Mart Democrat Blanche Lincoln under 50% which causes an automatic run-off. Once again, this proves that liberals and progressives are enthusiastic about this election, and if they show up in a state as conservative as Arkansas, it is not unthinkable that they will show up to the polls in November when the political environment heats up. Also, Halter runs better against any Republican nominee, and his need to campaign in a run-off will keep his name out there and help him in November.

Lastly, in Pennsylvania Joe Sestak defeated 30 year incumbent Arlen Specter. This is nothing but good for Democrats because one Sestak is more liberal, two he's a stronger and tougher campaigner, three has an intangible that seems more real and down to earth, and four does not have the baggage that Specter has. It seems that Specter was not completely opportunistic in his changing parties, as he has voted almost solidly Democratic and has given his support to Sestak, yet Democrats should be happy that Sestak won, and the improved prospects for the fall. Also, the Democrat won in the PA-12 special election, which kills the GOP talking point that Dems are going to start losing everything, and gives the Dems a much needed boost for the sprint to November.

All in all it was definitely a good night for liberal and progressive Democrats everywhere and shows that the GOP tide which was said to be coming may not be as severe as everyone once thought, and Democrats are getting enthused, something that will surely have a great impact on how bad the 2010 cycle will be for Dems.

Wednesday, May 13, 2009

Working for the American People

Today there was a vote on the floor of the Senate to basically cap interest rates on credit cards, the details of which can be found here. Well, in the end the amendment to the wide ranging credit card reform bill, was defeated by a sizable margin, 33-60. This is very disheartening, on several grounds. One, it shows clearly that banks seem to have a strangle hold on Congress, if not on our government at large. Why would all of these Senators, Democrats and Republicans both (although the Democrats voted 33-22 in favor to the Republicans 0-38), vote against against this amendment, when it would seemingly give the American people a direct benefit, and safeguard against the whims of the banking industry?

Whatever reason one could find to justify voting against this legislation, particularly if you're a Democrat, who are supposedly fighting against big business and corporations, there is no justification for doing so, either politically or practically. This legislation, would have benefited the American people and that is it, and would have shown the country that Congress truly is on the side of the average citizen and not the big banks or big business in any way. This would have appealed to populists on both side of the isle, and of course with liberal Democrats who always favor sticking it to the man. But for some reason there are those who still fear those in power of large sums of money, and these people simply are missing the point, they are in Congress to fight for the American people, particularly those hard hit by this recession, not corporate fat cats.

Lastly, there are some who say that they are doing this in order to give the big bill a better shot at passing the Senate when it comes to a vote. While it is important to get legislation passed and not be hyper partisan to the point where it halts progress; however, Democrats can not compromise to the point where they make good bills bad, where the make what could be really effective bills into paper tigers. It is apparent given the Republican party's current state of mind, that it will be difficult to get a good deal of their support on almost any legislation backed by Democrats. Given this, it makes no sense to compromise the party's morals for the sake of bipartisanship, when in fact in the end there is little chance that it will receive Republican support.

In the end these Senators, the 22 Democrats and 38 Republicans, must realize what they were elected for, and stand up for the American people, especially those who can't stand up for themselves, those who are most affected by the seemingly ever increasing credit card rates. Those who have little wealth, are forced to borrow, and buy on credit, whether its for food, payments on their homes, or apartments, or to pay for the never ending amount of bills that need to payed. This is who this legislation affects, and due to the selfish acts of these 60 politicians, Democrats, who I fully support on many other issues, they will suffer and be victims of the system again and again.

Tuesday, May 12, 2009

Pennsylvania Senate Race




The Pennsylvania Senate Race in 2010 has generated much interest since Arlen Specter recently switched from the Republican to the Democratic Party. I recently began doing my poll analysis, the method can be seen below, and it seems that Arlen Specter, the blue line, has a large lead over the Republican favorite, and far right candidate, Pat Toomey. Now this data was compiled from polls dating from April 29 to May 6 from the firms, in order, Quinnipiac, Susquehanna, POS, and DailyKos/Research2000. The data shows a firm lead for the Democrat in a state that has been becoming increasingly Democratic over the past decade. Now all of this poll data is based on Arlen Specter successfully securing the Democratic nomination, which is anything but certain. The most discussed contender is Joe Sestak, a Congressman from the state, who had made his interest in the seat known. As of now, Specter is the favorite, and Sestak has not said whether he will enter the race, yet I'm sure many Democrats are hoping he does, for Specter's support among the Democratic base is not particularly strong given his history, which includes 40 years as a Republican. The Research 2000 poll shows this bearing out, where Specters solid support is quite small, particularly compared to his soft support, which may move to Sestak. Either way, Specter leads Sestak 56% to 11%, but given this other information we can see an easy scenario where Sestak could seep up Specter's soft support to a point where he wins the Democratic primary, which is about one year away. So as of the now, the seat seems safe Democratic, the question will be just how Democratic it will be, whether the nominee is Specter or Sestak.

Monday, May 11, 2009

Cultural and Real Politics: Pragmatic Politics and History As We Know It

I just recently finished a class on American Thought Since 1850, and much of what I learned revolves around history and politics and how it is shaped and formed through the stories we as citizens tell about our own collective past. By understanding that history and truth is found in what we say about it, not some transcendental notion, which we will never be able to reach or truly understand, we can get a sense of what we need to do to solve problems and reach common solutions to progress society. I just wanted to throw this out there so its there, and whatever happens, happens.

The United States has been through several periods in history where various types of thought have been dominant and seemed to be most prominent throughout with the intellectual elite and even among those who formulate and shape public policy and the larger, overarching belief of what is right, what is wrong, and what is normative in society at large. Throughout the history of the United States the tenets and ideals found in pragmatism have been some of the central themes in American thought and what many have called a uniquely American way of thinking and approaching problems. However, as with any notion of what is normal and seen as the popular manner of thinking, these beliefs and this style of thought with regard to solving problems have had their low points in the country’s intellectual mores and norms. The question one must ask is whether are not we are still in the point in our collective history where the pragmatic approach to problem solving and political thought is still at a low point or if it has regained promise and significance in our system and within and among the population at large. Richard Rorty in Achieving Our Country discusses this issue and several of the current problems which are a threat to pragmatism and the practical approach to thinking about history and moving forward with regard to engaging and the manner in which persons will face the problems facing America or remain spectators in the political system and opt out of becoming active and involved in influencing policy and politics. In line with this one must come to understand what it entails to be involved and active in politics and how we as a people view politics and history in the United States with regard to what we know and see as true along with how this effects how we act and choose to view and participate government and being an agent of change or choosing not to. By using pragmatism as the lens through which one views American history and practical politics, one begins to see that all which is known and accepted to be true is only so, because there is a collective consensus around these notions that they are the traditions and beliefs around which we have formed our understanding of what it means to be an American and an individual in society.

In order to truly understand the manner in which politics is in America today we must look at the history of the political system and the culture that resides within and outside this system. While looking at this system can provide us with great inside it critical to understand that there are different ways in which one can view this collective United States history that both keeps us together as a people, whether one admits it or not, and defines us as a nation and society both to the individual and the culture as a whole. Rorty’s view of the history of politics in America and how we view this history is described along the lines of objectivity and subjectivity among the American people as we as a whole look back on events and cultural norms in politics. His view is that objectivity in history is basically irrelevant because what history means to us is what it means to each individual. That is while our history is collective, it is formed on a consensus of what society deems to be right or wrong, not necessarily what is objectively, morally right. It may be nice to discuss what is right or wrong, however; what is important and significant is what we believe to be the truth because in most cases it is difficult, if not impossible, to find what the overarching, transcendental truth is with regard to the critical issues facing the nation and society at this time or at anytime in the past or future of the country. In fact, much of the time, all that we know about history is what we say about it, the narrative truths which have been passed from generation to generation, and given their almost eternal and seemingly everlasting nature, they have a great amount of weight in how we view our history as Americans, and how we practice politics in today’s society. Andrew Bacevich reiterated the importance of this notion when discussing the importance of the myth of isolationism in American foreign policy in contemporary American politics, that while the understanding of America’s isolationist past may not actually be true, we continue to perpetuate it because it is what is believed to be true among the vast majority of persons whether educated or not because this story is indoctrinated in our collective past, and it holds great significance. Whether this is true or not, we as a collective have come to a consensus to treat it as true and see it that way, this is what holds significance in our political culture. This way to view and discuss our history and its effects on the manner in which we practice politics today, is a very pragmatic one because we are looking at what is in front of us as a nation and as a people, not some idealized notion of a transcendental truth. In turn, we see this notion actually put into practice in Rorty’s discussion on politics and the current left right divide, and the effects of each ideology’s principles on the American political and cultural system.

In politics today often we are faced with the prospect of either being left or right and having to choose between these two ideologies which are, according to the popular trend, diametrically opposed, particularly, Rorty claims with regard to national pride and patriotism. We in America are lead to believe that only the American political right has the tradition of pride in our nation as it is, and patriotism in the country, and this is in part to the stigma which has encompassed some of the political left, which has been perpetrated since the protest movements which made up the 1960s and the New Left. During this period, as both Rorty and Livingston note, there was a great shift in the way in which people on the left side of the political spectrum began to think about history, culture, politics, government, and society at large. This paradigm shift would change everything for how we as people act as part of a group among other groups and as an individual among other individuals both inside and outside of our self and other identified political group. This has lead many who felt that during this time their efforts and energies went to waste, to feel disgust and a form of self hatred or mockery toward the country and American pride and patriotism in general. Rorty, through analysis of Dewey and Whitman, says that this is manifested in our current public system, where certain portions of the American electorate on the left feel left out and believe that they can not affect the system in any meaningful way. This has caused them to become solely protestors and spectators as opposed to active agents in the process toward progress in achieving an America in which one can have pride. In having this happen, we are left in a form of political stasis for at least a portion of the population where Americans cease to be a changing, progressive society, as society no longer aimed at being the country of the future which it was set out to be according to Hegel. By reaching this point of stasis, which Dewey believes is the worst nightmare for America and its future, the American left is not fulfilling the promise of a pragmatic politics because instead of focusing on achieving results and promoting and advocating progressive policy, this faction of the left is centered on ideals and very strict principles. They have become so radicalized that they can no longer exist within the political structure and believe there is no way to enact progressive policies or practice politics whatsoever.

This departure from a pragmatic view of history and political activity makes itself exceedingly apparent when we view the intellectual urge to solely focus on theory and move away from actual practice. Both Rorty and Livingston discuss this distinction in terms of separating philosophy from practical usage, and the effects on the American population since the 1960s, particularly 1964, with regard to politics, both cultural and real. Now given the fact, that for pragmatic politics to hold true, there has to be real applications and real results, it is of great importance to look at the practical side of this problem, however; by dismissing philosophy we are also choosing between two options which we simply do not have to. That is, it is important for these people on the left to keep the mind set of progress and the spirit of change inherent in their protest, culture oriented politics, yet they must also be aware of the realities presented to them. Livingston’s discussion of the urge to theorize is a way for these people to detach themselves from everyday problems, and from actually having to find solutions. By simply theorizing, discussing, and coming to conclusions, they are able to return to the tradition of the 1960s and focus on cultural politics, removing themselves from the inherent difficulties found in real politics. The key is to not become too radicalized in either tradition, philosophical or practical, and instead use the tenets of pragmatism to delay the choice between revolution and reform. This seems to be the breaking point between Rorty and Livingston, in that, Rorty somewhat dismisses the cultural aspect of our politics today, and in doing so misses a large part of what makes our system tick and forcing us to choose falsely between these two notions of politics today.

While Rorty is correct in saying that in today’s political system, too often people on the political left seem to be ineffective in their use of politics because they remove themselves from the system, he seems to miss the impact that cultural politics can have on real politics both in application and in achieving real policy and legislation in America today. Livingston discusses Rorty’s mistake in Chapter 4 of Pragmatism, Feminism, and Democracy, when he reiterates Lincoln’s quote that, "he who molds public sentiment, goes deeper than he who enacts statutes or pronounces declarations," noting that to forget this would be to forget much of the history of the American left. Rorty calls the left, the party of hope, and by doing so inherently makes it a party of feelings and a personal sense and commitment to improve relations among people. These feelings run deep in the tradition and in the mindset of leftist politics, and in many instances were born in cultural politics, where individuals begin to identify among themselves and form groups based on race, gender, and economic status, which according to Rorty maybe the only effective use of these politics. However, by forming these groups and interacting among the rest of the polity, there is sympathy and empathy which grows for the fellow citizen and it is due in a good part to the cultural politics practiced today. This is they significance of what is termed cultural or identity politics, that it is a part of our system, and we must find how it can be beneficial to progressing America, and not alienating a large portion of the electorate to a point where they feel nothing can be done and they cease to exist as active political persons, and no longer have agency in the system. I believe that this is the instance in politics and history which we are seeing currently, where there is a meeting of cultural and real politics, and that because of this we are reentering a more pragmatic way of thought which we lost in the 1950s and which was held dormant for many ever since.

By examining both the history and the politics surrounding group identification, we can clearly see that there is and has been a focus of these groups as being the centers of the political world, and the subject to which politicians and cultural leaders focus their attention. This is noted by Cruse in his text The Crisis of the Negro Intellectual and reiterated by Livingston, when he says that America was built on the notion of groups and without this manner of thought we would not have had the great racial strife and competition that has tormented us in many different ways throughout our history. What is essential to realize here which is pointed out in Livingston’s text, is that for these individuals who fight for such cultural causes, the goal of the politics is to change culture and shape society in a way so they are seen and treated as equals within all of society and among all of its people. The real politics that Rorty discusses is form them fleeting if they are not able to change the societal norms and relations in America, and this of course leads to the disgust which Rorty consistently mentions, which in turns forces them to be spectators. Therefore, what becomes needed is for these radicalized groups to maintain there sense of cause, and use it to work to change the American way in a beneficial manner. We need to change the story from one that is exclusive to these groups to one that includes and incorporates them into the solution to solve the problems, political and social, that face America today.

Politics in America today, and particularly on the left, have changed a great deal in the past few years, and with the recent victory of the Democratic Party and Barack Obama and their ability to capture the imaginations, to a degree, of the nation, tells us a lot about the manner in which we view politics. In today’s political tradition, we are looking at both the significance of cultural and real politics to get things done, that is we are rejecting the false choice of deciding between revolution and reform in America. Instead, it seems that there is a reemerging notion we can integrate our cultural politics into an effective real politics, somewhat like the coalition of labor and the intellectual elite in the early part of the twentieth century, which Livingston and others have noted, that formed the pragmatic, real politics centered American left. This coalition was in the tradition of pragmatism, and today we can and are re-imagining this alliance by fusing cultural and real politics to a point where a candidate like Obama can pool the masses of the Democratic Party, particularly the youth, intellectuals, and black populations, all of those former centers of dissent which have made up much of the New Left over the past forty years. By allowing these camps to maintain their political awareness and deeply held convictions with regard to their own identity group along with their idealism to a degree but inviting them into the system, we can practice politics in a manner that truly affects and create real change, in what can be seen as a new pragmatic tradition.

Gender, Racial, and social groups are almost inescapable in the corporate capitalist and socially democratic America we live in today, therefore, it seems near impossible to detach these groups from politics in the country and as such we can not simply remove these identities from having an impact on how we govern and form public policy. Through pragmatism we will be able to reconcile these two visions of the country, reform and revolution, Dewey and Marx, and find a solution that allows America to progress and achieve what the left sees as the necessary goal, an America which allows for equal opportunity and equal results for all people. They key is to get these leftists, re-enchanted in the American civil religion which Dewey speaks of, the America that is greater than us all, and holds the promise of a better future for all of its citizens and all those who come to its shores. Only by accepting that there is a need to be a part of the system to affect change within and without it, can this new pragmatic tradition advance, and will America be able to progress.