11/2/11 Obama's Up and Cain Surviving

Today's polling data came fast and early with a flurry of both state and national polls from various organizations which help to both clarify and muddy the 2012 election picture.  So what do these polls mean? Here's my take, as usual.


1) Obama Approval - Gallup 1500 Adults 10/30-11/1, 45% approve, 48% disapprove...Obama= +2% approval, -2% disapproval (net +4%) 


2) Obama Approval - Rasmussen 1500 LV 10/30-11/1, 44% approve, 55% disapprove...Obama=no change in approval/disapproval (no net change)


3) Obama Approval - Quinnipiac 2294 RV 10/27-10/30, 47% approve, 49% disapprove...Obama= +6% approval, -6% disapproval (net +12%)


While Rasmussen shows the President remaining at a negative eleven percent approval rating, the approval number is still at 44% which is not horrible for the president given the state of the economy and negative attitudes throughout the country.  Additionally, the Quinnipiac and Gallup polls bring great news to the White House as they show a twelve and four point turn around for the President nationally since their last polls, Quinnipiac's being around one month ago.  It will be essential for Obama's approval be near fifty percent, and this is just another poll showing that Obama is gaining traction with the public, and that the American people are waking up and beginning to see more and more who is really fighting for them, and who is blocking any progression.


I still see December as the month where Obama's numbers will really start to pick up. The next few days will also be telling as to whether Obama's approval will increase further as the Congress will vote on an infrastructure portion of the original jobs bill and the unemployment numbers will be released.  I think on the first issue, Obama wins either way as he will either get the bill passed, which will create jobs and show the President's policies work OR it gets voted down and the Republicans continue to be obstructionists, and Obama is seen as working for the American people, and caring, something which means more than you might think.

And now the state polls, both presidential and GOP primary....


4) Florida President - Suffolk/7News 800 RV 10/26-10/30

• 42% Obama, 42% Romney
• 46% Obama, 34% Perry
• 42% Obama, 39% Cain
• 45% Obama, 38% Gingrich
• 44% Obama, 32% Paul

Florida is going to be one of the closest state races should Mitt Romney win the Republican nomination.  If any other candidate becomes the Republican nominee I would immediately say that Florida would Lean Democratic, something which I would believe of most of the toss up states should Romney not win the GOP nomination.  

Right now, my polling average shows the race almost a dead heat...Obama 43.77% v. Romney 43.48% (Obama +0.29%).  Continue to see the polling in this state to see saw a couple points between the candidates, but if Obama's continues as it has been look for Obama to be ahead of Romney by ~3-5% points.

5) Florida GOP Primary - Suffolk/7News 287 RV 10/26-10/30, 25% Romney, 24% Cain, 11% Gingrich, 9% Perry, 5% Paul, 2% Huntsman, 1% Bachmann, 1% Santorum

6) South Carolina GOP Primary - Rasmussen 770 LV 11/1, 33% Cain, 23% Romney, 15% Gingrich, 9% Perry, 5% Paul, 2% Bachmann, 1% Huntsman, 1% Santorum

Both of these polls show the same thing, something which I pointed out yesterday.  Romney is stagnant.  His numbers are not moving up or down in any way and it seems his support in these two key states is stuck around 30% and 25% respectively.  In contrast, Cain has ticked up slightly in Florida and by a large degree in South Carolina, where he has now taken the lead.  What is more interesting to note is that the Rasmussen poll was taken the day after the sexual harassment story broke, and up to now, it seems to have had no effect, as I predicted yesterday.  Perry is still plummeting and I don't see him picking up steam at all.  Gingrich is ticking up as well and was third place in both of these polls, the one on one debate between Cain and Gingrich will be very interesting to watch, as they seem to have very similar voters (e.g. angry, passionate, very anti-Obama, etc.).  Don't count out Cain yet.

7) North Carolina President - Public Policy Polling 615 LV 10/27-10/31

• 45% Obama, 46% Romney
• 50% Obama, 42% Perry
• 47% Obama, 44% Cain
• 50% Obama, 43% Gingrich
• 48% Obama, 40% Paul
• 50% Obama, 42% Bachmann

Like Florida, I see North Carolina being a toss up if Romney is the nominee, and a Lean Democratic state should any other candidate get the GOP nomination.  The state has been trending Democratic and is one which the Obama 2012 team really wants to keep in the Democratic column.  I would even say that it seems more likely that Obama will win NC, than states such as FL, NV, VA, or NH given the current standing of the president, and that Romney is the nominee.  However, I would say that the president's approval had been at an all time low, and as a Republican nominee emerges, the Democratic message will coalesce and I would imagine Obama's numbers to rise.  

Right now, the race between Obama and Romney stands at...Obama 45.34% v. Romney 44.80% (Obama +0.54%).  I would predict Obama winning NC by ~2% if Romney is the nominee, and by 5-8% should any other GOP candidate be the nominee.  

11/1/11 - Tuesday Polling Update - Cain Continues to Ride High

Today's polls provide show us that Herman Cain's support may be a lot more widespread than we thought, and that Mitt Romney, while to most sensible choice is still having a tough time garnering support, even in his own neck of the woods.

Starting off, the President's Approval numbers seem stagnant this week, not moving much in either direction.

1) Obama Approval - Gallup 1500 Adults 10/29-10/31, 43% approve, 50% disapprove...Obama= no change in  approval/disapproval (net no change)


2) Obama Approval - Rasmussen 1500 LV 10/29-10/31, 44% approve, 55% disapprove...Obama= -1% approval, +1% disapproval (net -2%)


3) Obama Approval - PPP/Daily Kos 1000 RV 10/27-10/30, 42% approve, 53% disapprove...Obama= -2% approval, +2% disapproval (net -4%)


As I said, I think that stagnant is the best word to possibly describe the President's approval ratings.  Right now, they're not increasing; however, they are not sinking to the same level which they would in the dog days of the summer.  If the media picks up more on the implementation of the executive announcements which are beginning to be signed this week, and people get a better sense of his urgency with regard to boosting the economy, I see his numbers ticking up but very slowly.  Additionally, it seems that the White House is doing somewhat of a media blitz to inform people of the significance of the aforementioned announcements.  Also, the jobs number will be telling on Friday and could either inflate the public's mood or depress it depending on the number, I predict the former.

Now the state Republican primary polling...

4) Maine GOP Primary - Public Policy Polling 250 LV 10/28-10/31, 29% Cain, 24% Romney, 18% Gingrich, 5% Bachmann, 5% Paul, 4% Perry, 2% Santorum, 1% Huntsman

Once again, Herman Cain finds himself at the top of a state primary poll.  What's even more surprising is that it is in the North East, a region which many thought Mitt Romney had sewn up.  However, Maine, like New Hampshire, is a very quirky state and can have a lot more conservative tendencies, than say states like Connecticut, Rhode Island, Massachusetts, and of course Vermont.  While this poll was taken before the Cain sex harassment story blew up in the media, it is still very telling about the amount of support Cain has built up throughout the country.  It is also a definite hit to Mitt Romney.  Conservatives simply don't trust him to be an advocate for their policies and ideals, and as a result they are looking for another candidate to fulfill those needs, and right now Cain is their man.  Most seem to think that this most recent scandal will hurt Cain; however, I believe that it will not, and for one simple reason...conservative media.  Conservative media has rallied around Cain and see this story as another example of the liberal media elite stereotyping an African American conservative.  As with in most cases, I believe their flock will follow them, and Cain will not be damaged by this story, and if he is it will be only minimal. 

5) Maine Senate GOP Primary - Public Policy Polling 250 LV 10/28-10/31, 62% Olympia Snowe (incumbent), 10% Scott D'Amboise, 7% Andrew Ian Dodge

Snowe looks a lot safer than she has in the past.  I personally believe that if she has ONE conservative challenger, and the more conservative members of the Maine GOP rally around that person, then that person would give Snowe a run for her money.  However, it doesn't seem like that will happen at this moment, so as of now I would bet on Snowe being the nominee, which makes it VERY LIKELY that this seat would stay REPUBLICAN.

5) North Carolina GOP Primary - Public Policy Polling 474 LV 10/27-10/31, 30% Cain, 22% Gingrich, 19% Romney, 10% Perry, 4% Bachmann, 4% Paul, 2% Huntsman, 2% Santorum

This is the second time PPP has polled North Carolina since his surge in the polls, and his numbers have only increased.  I don't see this being a state in which Romney has a good shot at winning.  While the results of the primary may have nothing to do with who wins the nomination (it won't be held until May 8, 2012), the poll is still a good way to show the attitudes of southern voters, and once again, one thing is clear...they are not happy with Mitt Romney as a possible nominee.  Even more so, BOTH the Maine and North Carolina polls show that Romney isn't even the second choice for a large majority of those who claim to support Cain.  Most of these likely primary voters like Gingrich should Cain not be the nominee, and if Cain does implode it would be interesting to see if Gingrich could rally that support to his side and turn out to be a contender, even after the disastrous roll out his campaign had.  Even noting that Gingrich has a shot, says something really bad about the Republican party, and shows that they are not in a strong position for 2012, and that the person who would have the best shot at defeating Obama (i.e. Romney), is the one they like the least.   

10/31/11 Happy Halloween Polling Update

Happy Halloween everybody!! I'll be dressing up a bit later, so I decided to get the daily polling update out of the way.  We have a pretty rich polling update today, including the standard daily tracking polls, new state polls of Wisconsin, Texas and Washington, with some very mixed results for the President.


1) Obama Approval - Gallup 1500 Adults 10/28-10/30, 43% approve, 50% disapprove...Obama= no change in  approval/disapproval (net no change)


2) Obama Approval - Rasmussen 1500 LV 10/28-10/30, 45% approve, 54% disapprove...Obama= -1% approval, +1% disapproval (net -2%)


3) Texas President - University of Texas 800 RV 10/19-10/26

• 34% Obama, 36% Romney
• 37% Obama, 45% Perry
• 35% Obama, 40% Cain
• 33% Obama, 38% Paul

These are some pretty promising results for Barack Obama in Texas.  He runs within five points of most of the candidates, and trails the current governor of the state by eight points.  However, two things concern me, the poll is of all registered voters, something which usually benefits Democrats as there are usually more registered Dems who don't get out to the polls.  Also, in each poll there are around twenty to thirty percent undecided voters, which is high meaning one of two things...most undecideds will break Republican as the state is obviously more conservative than not, or most people are not really engaged in the process.  Either way, to see President Obama this close in a state that hasn't gone Democratic in years is something that could make Democrats hopeful.

4) Texas GOP Primary - University of Texas 395 RV 10/19-10/26, 27% Cain, 26% Perry, 12% Paul, 9% Romney, 8% Gingrich, 2% Bachmann, 1% Santorum, 1% Huntsman

Once again Herman Cain is at the top of a state GOP primary poll.  The last poll of likely Texas Republican primary goers showed Perry with a thirty-five to forty point lead. However, as with most polls he has plummeted pretty markedly, and not winning his own state would be a big blow to the Perry campaign.  Look for these two to make a race out of the sate, Romney has very little chance here regardless of Cain's successes or failures.

5) Wisconsin President - Wisconsin Policy Research Institute 650 Adults 10/23-10/26

• 46% Obama, 35% Romney
• 48% Obama, 30% Perry
• 50% Obama, 31% Cain

6) Wisconsin President - Rasmussen 500 LV 10/26

• 45% Obama, 41% Romney
• 42% Obama, 46% Perry
• 47% Obama, 42% Cain

There are two conflicting polls in the Wisconsin race, one showing Obama with huge leads, particularly against Perry or Cain.  The other, from Rasmussen, shows a much tighter race, with Perry even leading, something which I see as incredibly unlikely, as this is the FIRST time I've seen Perry leading any race outside of a state which went Republican in 2008.  All things considered these races are most likely somewhere between what these polls say.  My current average shows Wisconsin to be a state which leans Obama regardless of the candidate ( +5 on Romney, +10 on Perry, and +13 on Cain).  Rasmussen has done very little state polling at this part in the cycle, and in past cycles has seen a strong bias toward Republican candidates.

7)  Washington President - University of Washington 938 RV 10/10-10/30

• 50% Obama, 41% Romney
• 54% Obama, 41% Perry

Washington seems to be a pretty safe state for the President.  Overall, they approve of him by a margin of 52-43% and are not as mad at the federal government as the rest of the country.  These results are in line with previous polls of the state, and will probably be in the Democratic column once again come November 2012.

10/30/11 Sunday Polling Update

Only three polls of note today, two on the president's approval rating and one on the GOP race in Iowa.

1) Obama Approval - Gallup 1500 Adults 10/27-10/29, 43% approve, 50% disapprove...Obama= +1% approval, -1% disapproval (net +2%)

2) Obama Approval - Rasmussen 1500 LV 10/27-10/29, 46% approve, 53% disapprove...Obama= no change approval, +1% disapproval (net -1%)

3) Iowa Caucus - Selzer & Co. (Des Moines Register) 400 LV 10/23-10/26, 23% Cain, 22% Romney, 12% Paul, 8% Bachmann, 7% Gingrich, 7% Perry, 5% Santorum, 1% Hunstman

Obama has a net approval rating of negative seven percent in both daily tracking approval polls, showing once again that his standing is increasing steadily, albeit at a predictably slow rate.  Even Rasmussen has him at 46% and a deeper look at their poll shows that is strongly approve/disapprove numbers are even climbing slowly.  With regard to the IA Caucus, please read my earlier post on Herman Cain and his unyielding position at the top of the GOP primary field.

Looks Like Herm Has Some Staying Power...at least more than Rick!

Yesterday, the Des Moines Register released a well respected poll of likely Republican Caucus goers in Iowa which showed that Herman Cain has not dropped in the polls yet, and it seems he may be more than just a "flavor of the month," a term coined by the increasingly insignificant Sarah Palin. The poll, done by Selzer & Co., showed Cain with 23% support among caucus goers, marginally leading Mitt Romney who has 22%, after that there is a ten percent drop of to Ron Paul at 12%. For a means of comparison, MSNBC's First Read points out that four years ago, "Romney led the field — at 29 percent - to former Arkansas governor and eventual caucus-winner Mike Huckabee's 12 percent in the October 2007 edition of the same poll." Romney is at a lower point than he was four years ago, and the electorate has moved farther to the right, both not good signs for the former governor of Massachusetts.  Herman Cain seems to not be losing traction among Iowa Republicans and polls continue to show him at the top of the pack, whether you look at the races state by state or at a national level.

Cain's surge in the GOP primary contest began in late September/early October, and has continued in spite of numerous negative analysis of his tax plan, campaign strategies, blunt language with regard to different voting groups, and lack of seriousness organization in early primary states.  However, he remains at the top of the polls in these states, and seems to do better the more people get to know about him.  In comparison, Rick Perry only stayed this high in the polls, during his initial surge, for about a two to three weeks (from around mid/early August to the end of the month).  Using my polling averaging formula, you can easily see the raising of Cain, plummeting of Romney, and the stagnation of the field otherwise.

 It is obvious that Cain should not be counted out and is resonating with voters, especially tea-partiers, in some way, even in the face of an increasingly negative narrative. Everyone, in the media at least, seems to believe that the race will come down to Romney and Perry, with Paul playing the role of possible spoiler.  However, I think there is definitely room for other faces, as the GOP electorate seem unhappy with their choices and seem to be going from candidate to candidate trying to find the 'right' fit.  Even with as unpopular as Barack Obama is, Mitt Romney, hasn't been able to coalesce the Republican base for the past four years, its difficult to see a reason why they would all of a sudden become enlightened to the word of Romney.     

10/29/11 Saturday Polling Update!

So a normal slow polling Saturday gives us two polls, both daily tracking polls of the president's approval/disapproval...

1) Gallup 1500 Adults 10/26-10/28, 42% approve, 51% disapprove

2) Rasmussen 1500 LV 10/26-10/28, 46% approve, 52% disapprove

While these aren't the best numbers, they continue to show an improvement in the president's standing. The Rasmussen poll is promising and shows a marked increase from days prior showing Friday was a good day for Obama. I expect this to continue to happen especially with the multitude of political news stories out there are about the ineptness of the GOP primary field and their party's intransigence in the Congress.

Obama's Approval by December

President Barack Obama will have a net neutral approval rating by December, and here's why.  

It has been a rough almost three years for Barack Obama.  There's no doubt that Obama has faced a great deal of scrutiny, from all angles, since the beginning of his presidency.  Additionally, since the GOP took control of the House of Representatives, it has been increasingly difficult for him to get any of his bills, initiatives, or policy plans passed in Congress.  Not surprisingly, as a consequence of this barrage of negative attention, Obama's approval ratings have suffered greatly.  

According to Gallup, from July to September, President Obama's average approval rating stood at a very weak 41%.  This was most likely a result of relatively high and stagnant unemployment, media hyped fears of a double dip recession, continual reports of low economic growth, and a Republican field taking up all of the oxygen on the news, using most of their time to denigrate the president in any way they could.  Of course, additionally, there is the constant anti-Obama/anti-government chatter that you will here wherever you go.  

However, things are starting to look up for the president.  Taking a look at the current polling data on the approval of Barack Obama's job as president, beginning in October, and extrapolating the current trend line of the these polls there is a lot of hope that these 'underwater' numbers will reverse themselves, and it will not take relatively long for this to happen.  

Obama started the month of October with an approval rating of around 41.5% with a disapproval rating of around 54% (This was found by using a logarithmic regression of over thirty polls from October 2 to October 26).  Doing some quick math would tell you that his net approval rating around negative twelve and a half percent (12.5%).  This number is not only disheartening to supporters of the President, but not a good omen when the election is thirteen months away.  However, several things have happened since the beginning of the month, and as a result so have the President's fortunes.  As of today, October 28, President Obama's approval is around 43%, with a disapproval of ~51.5%, or a net approval of negative eight and a half percent (8.5%).  This is a dramatic and impressive, but not unexpected, rebound for the president, and there are several reasons why I believe this has happened. 

Since the beginning of the month, Obama has taken out two of the world's most dangerous leaders in Anwar al-Awlaki and Muomar Khaddafi, which has only continued to strengthen his foreign policy credentials both abroad and at home.  This is proof for independents that Obama's policy can be successful, and that they may be giving him a second look.  Additionally, the President announced the that by the end of the year, all US troops will be withdrawn from Iraq, an action which a majority of American's believe is well overdue.  This move hypothetically would increase Obama's approval among a variety of different groups, from liberals and libertarians who never liked to the war, to independents and conservatives who have grown increasingly sour of the war.  

While these moves have likely helped Obama, the economy is the lead story, and what happens in the country with regards to the economy will have the greatest impact on his reelection chances and his approval ratings in general.  In that vain, there have been several recent reports and polls which have shown that the stagnancy of the economy may be coming to an end, and that the fears of a double dip recession may have been well overblown.  Last quarter, advance estimates show that the GDP grew at a rate of about 2.5%, which while not great, is much better than many thought it would be.  Additionally, a recent Gallup study showed that unemployment may have decreased by a significant rate in October, a study which the jobs report will hopefully confirm this coming Friday.  Consumers hear more positive news and as a result, have a more positive attitude about, which can only help the President.

Both domestically and with regard to foreign policy, there are concrete reasons to help understand this increase; however, I believe the political narrative has much more to do with it that anything.  If one looks at the events of the past month, several narratives emerge.  First, the President is among the people, and getting things done.  Since early September, Barack Obama has been on the road through many states all over the country promoting and explaining his jobs bill, rallying his base, and showing the American people that he is trying to get something positive done in Washington.  Additionally, Obama has shown an increasingly assertive tone by deciding to implement policy through executive order and directly confront those in Congress who continue to block progressive and positive action.  While this is happening the media is also continuing to focus on the Republican primary.  On its face, this might seem to be a benefit for the Republican candidates, as many of them will become more well known and their views will be available for public consumption.  However, it seems that the more people get to see of candidates such as Michelle Bachmann, Rick Perry, and Herman Cain, the less they like, as these candidates do not seem serious, practical, or realistic options for the presidency of the United States.  Once again, Barack Obama looks stronger compared to these candidates, and among independents becomes a more viable and practical choice for reelection. 

Given these three narratives, it is not surprising to see President Obama's approval ratings on the rise.  If the economy continues to grow, particularly through the holiday season, and the President continues to stress the importance of the passage of a comprehensive jobs bill to an increasingly intransigent Republican led House of Representatives, his approval will only continue to rise.  The trend suggests that by mid to late December, Barack Obama will have a neutral net Approval rating of approximately 45 to 46%.  If unemployment drops by an even more significant rate, and the public becomes increasingly frustrated with the GOP in Congress, look for his approval to increase by an even greater rate.  

It is easy to count out Barack Obama; however, I believe but attitude is beginning to change and people are beginning to see the real problems within our government, and understand that this President is trying to help and is trying to make things better for the middle class.