So, just perusing my blogroll and two headlines jumped out to me. The first was from MSNBC saying that Senator John Thune (R-SD) will not run for president and that in a Minnesota poll Donald Trump (all of a sudden R) is beating Former Gov. Sarah Palin (R-AK). What these two headlines say to me is that the Republican field of candidates is very weak, and their chances of winning a presidential election are not good. Now you might say, why would these two headlines be so telling well I have my reasons.
First, John Thune is a great looking candidate. Well spoken, young, he's been in the Senate for seven years, spent nothing on his re-election last year, and would make a great candidate for the Republicans. This being said, by him not jumping in, he's reading the tea leaves, and they're saying that the Republicans have no shot in 2012. If they did, he would have jumped in, the time would have been ripe for him, but he chose to forgo this cycle and I believe he will shoot for 2016.
Second, if Donald Trump, someone who can not be any less serious about or interested in politics, is defeating Sarah Palin, who obviously has her flaws, but is a political figure, in a Republican primary poll, you have to ask yourself...what are the Republicans thinking? They seem very disorganized and very scattered with regard to who they want to represent their party and what kind of candidate they want to run for president. The question for them becomes purity or popularity, and if they choose purity they will certainly lose the election in 2012.
Now I'm not saying that its a slam dunk for Democrats. They certainly have their own problems, but its really all about the candidate, and given these two articles at least it seems the Republicans can't figure much out. I believe if you see less and less 'establishment' Republican candidates decide to forgo this cycle, it will just prove my earlier point, and the chances of a Republican president in 2012 will continue to diminish.
First, John Thune is a great looking candidate. Well spoken, young, he's been in the Senate for seven years, spent nothing on his re-election last year, and would make a great candidate for the Republicans. This being said, by him not jumping in, he's reading the tea leaves, and they're saying that the Republicans have no shot in 2012. If they did, he would have jumped in, the time would have been ripe for him, but he chose to forgo this cycle and I believe he will shoot for 2016.
Second, if Donald Trump, someone who can not be any less serious about or interested in politics, is defeating Sarah Palin, who obviously has her flaws, but is a political figure, in a Republican primary poll, you have to ask yourself...what are the Republicans thinking? They seem very disorganized and very scattered with regard to who they want to represent their party and what kind of candidate they want to run for president. The question for them becomes purity or popularity, and if they choose purity they will certainly lose the election in 2012.
Now I'm not saying that its a slam dunk for Democrats. They certainly have their own problems, but its really all about the candidate, and given these two articles at least it seems the Republicans can't figure much out. I believe if you see less and less 'establishment' Republican candidates decide to forgo this cycle, it will just prove my earlier point, and the chances of a Republican president in 2012 will continue to diminish.
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