Obama v. Perry 2012 Predictions

Yesterday I laid out what is probably the most likely scenario for the 2012 general election for president, Obama v. Romney.  Today I will focus on Rick Perry's chances against Obama as of today, November 6, 2011.  Although Perry's numbers are low, many think he is the second most likely Republican nominee due to the amount of money he has on hand, and the establishment 'cred' he has in the GOP.

Obama v. Perry
Due to Perry's 'late' entry into the race in August, there is not the same amount of polling as with Romney, so more of this prediction is conjecture, but the numbers also speak for themselves.  Here is how I see the race as of right now.

SAFE DEMOCRATIC-232        LIKELY DEMOCRATIC-94          LEANS DEMOCRATIC-32
Hawaii (D+35) 4                          Wisconsin (D+10.6) 10               North Carolina (D+5.7) 15
Massachusetts (D+32.4) 11         Nevada (D+9.9) 6                       New Hampshire (D+5) 4
Vermont (D+29) 3                       Iowa (D+9.5) 6                          Virginia (D+3.3) 13
New York (D+29.8) 29               Ohio (D+9.1) 18                      
California (D+21) 55                    Florida (D+9) 29
Illinois (D+20.4) 20                     Arizona (D+6) 11
Michigan (D+20.2) 16                 Colorado 9
Maine (D+18.4) 4                       New Mexico 5
Connecticut (D+16) 7
Washington (D+13.3) 12
New Jersey (D+13) 14
Pennsylvania (D+11.5) 20
Minnesota 10                  
Oregon 7
Delaware 3
Maryland 10
Rhode Island 4
Washington, DC 3



TOSS UP-19
South Carolina (R+1.6) 9
Missouri (R+2) 10

SAFE REPUBLICAN-65             LIKELY REPUBLICAN-66              LEANS REPUBLICAN-30
 Louisiana (R+15) 8                          Kentucky (R+7) 8                               Georgia 16
West Virginia (R+14.6) 5                  Nebraska (R+7) 5                               Indiana 11
 Tennessee (R+15) 11                     Texas (R+7.2) 38                                 Montana 3                
Alabama 9                                      South Dakota (R+6) 3                               
Arkansas 6                                     Alaska 3
Idaho 4                                          North Dakota 3         
Kansas 6                                        Mississippi 6
Oklahoma 7
Wyoming 3
Utah 6

The states without D+ or R+ have not had any polling data up to this point in the cycle and I have handicapped them based on past voting trends, while taking into account the candidates and how they (or similar candidates) may have performed in these states in the past.

Not counting the TOSS UP states, the current electoral vote totals would be: Obama 358, Perry 161, Toss up 19...My popular vote results would be ~49% Obama to ~38% Perry, with still 13% remaining undecided, leaving a lot of room for either side; however, its important to note that Obama has an 11 point lead and is just about at 50%.  He would be in a much better position with Perry as the nominee compared to Romney, as Perry turns out to be a more polarizing figure, with most people not liking him.  To see South Carolina in the Toss Up category is staggering, but really shows the amount of space Perry has to make up, even in the south.

As with Romney, Arizona is probably more of a toss up, but the only current polling data shows Obama leading.  I would expect VA, FL, OH and NC to be closer because the GOP base will coalesce, but I still think Obama would win these states.  Once again, I'm really interested in what the polling data says for Indiana and Georgia, but no one has polled them recently.

I am strongly favoring Obama for reelection should Perry be the nominee. All things considered, giving this data, I have him leading 358 to 180.  

Obama v. Romney 2012 Predictions

The general election for the presidency of the United States in 2012 will be one of the most hotly contested races.  The political cable news media is only getting more intense, and the bases on both sides will be very aggressive in terms of advocating for their candidate (probably).  As of today, November 5, 2011, three scenarios seem most likely 1) Obama v. Romney, 2) Obama v. Perry, or 3) Obama v. Cain.  I have compiled state polling data on each of these three races (among others) and as a result have the following race ratings/predictions for each scenario.  Today I will focus on Obama v. Romney and the numbers.

Obama v. Romney
Most people in politics and the political media believe Romney will be the eventual nominee of the Republican party.  Also, he has been in the race for president since 2007.  As a result, the Obama/Romney race has been the most polled in the individual states.  Here is how I see the race as of right now.

SAFE DEMOCRATIC-159        LIKELY DEMOCRATIC-67          LEANS DEMOCRATIC-47
Hawaii (D+27) 4                          Michigan (D+10.2) 16                Wisconsin (D+5.2) 10
New York (D+21) 29                    Washington (D+9.1) 12              Pennsylvania (D+4.9) 20
Vermont (D+20) 3                        Connecticut (D+8.3) 7               Arizona (D+4.8) 11
Massachusetts (D+19.4) 11          Maine (D+7.3) 4                        Iowa (D+3.7) 6
Rhode Island (D+17) 4                 New Mexico (D+7) 5
California (D+15.4) 55                  Colorado (D+7) 9
Minnesota (D+15) 10                    New Jersey (D+6.5) 14
Oregon (D+12) 7
Illinois (D+11.5) 20
Delaware 3
Maryland 10
Washington, DC 3


TOSS UP-81
Ohio (D+2.7) 18
North Carolina (D+0.5) 15
Florida (D+0.3) 29
Nevada (D+0.1) 6
Virginia (R+2.0) 13

SAFE REPUBLICAN-70             LIKELY REPUBLICAN-39              LEANS REPUBLICAN-75
Utah (R+32) 6                              New Hampshire (R+8.6) 4             Missouri (R+3.9) 10
West Virginia (R+18.4) 5               Kentucky (R+8) 8                          Texas (R+3.3) 38
Louisiana (R+16) 8                       Montana (R+8) 3                           Georgia (R+3) 16
Tennessee (R+15) 11                    South Carolina (R+6.8) 9                Indiana 11
Nebraska (R+13) 5                       South Dakota (R+6) 3
Alabama 9                                    Mississippi (R+6) 6
Arkansas 6                                    Alaska 3
Idaho 4                                         North Dakota 3          
Kansas 6
Oklahoma 7
Wyoming 3

The states without D+ or R+ have not had any polling data up to this point in the cycle and I have handicapped them based on past voting trends, while taking into account the candidates and how they (or similar candidates) may have performed in these states in the past.

Not counting the TOSS UP states, the current electoral vote totals would be: Obama 273, Romney 184, Toss up 81...meaning that even if Obama lost OH, NC, FL, NV, VA, NH, and IN...if he can hold PA, WI, and IA and take AZ he will win reelection, but just barely.  My popular vote results would be ~46% Obama to ~41% Romney, with still 13% remaining undecided, leaving a lot of room for either side; however, its important to note that Obama only needs ~30% of those undecideds to get back to 50%.

Arizona is probably more of a toss up, but the only current polling data shows Obama leading.  I would also expect NH to come closer to the Democratic side.  I'm really interested in what the polling data says for Indiana and Georgia, but no one has polled them recently.  If Texas comes into play, then I would say the election would be over.

I am definitely favoring Obama for reelection, all things considered, giving this data, I have him leading 341 to 197.   

Obama v. Romney...The Big Picture

As of today, September 20, 2011, the Obama/Romney raced has been the most frequently and consistently polled contest since the beginning of 2011.  This is no surprise because he has been the front runner for quite a long time, and has basically been running for president since 2007.  In total, the race has been polled in 36 of the 50 states since late January of this year.  Most of the results are not too surprising; however, given the current standing of the President's approval ratings and the state of the economy, Obama seems to be in much better shape than most think he is.  The caveat to most of this data is that in several states there has been only one or two polls taken, and it is still very early in the cycle.  This is merely meant to give a snapshot understanding of where the polls have placed the two candidates as of this moment in time.

So, there is the list of the current aggregate data (in order from Obama's highest positive differential)

This current data would yield Obama 290 Electoral Votes and Romney 142 Electoral Votes.  This puts Obama over the 270 EV threshold for a victory in 2012.  This of course does not count the states which do not have any polling data to be analyzed.  If those states were to be allocated to the party which won them in the previous cycle, the final results would be Obama 341, Romney 194.  

Some of the states which are worth taking a look at, in my estimation, are Iowa, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Ohio, North Carolina, Nevada, Florida, Virginia, New Hampshire, and Missouri.

Most conventional wisdom is that some of the most traditionally Democratic states (i.e. Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Ohio) are some of the most vulnerable states for Obama to lose in 2012.  However, he is doing better in these states than the ones which he won that had been Republican (most notably North Carolina and Virginia).

Although given this polling data, Obama would win a big re-election, it is important to note that his numbers for many of the 'Toss-Up' states are in the mid-40s, which is not very high given his incumbent status.  However, one must also take into account that summers are usually a period of low polling and approval for both candidate and President Obama.  Taking all of these factors into account, along with the increasingly more populist message being taken by the president, I believe Obama is in a favorable position for the upcoming election, which is now just under 14 months away!!

More on Romney and Obama to come soon! ( The issues matter of course!)

2012 Election Predictions

Starting tomorrow, I will unveil my current view (for what it's worth) of the 2012 landscape, based primarily on polling data from recent weeks and months.  My focus will be on general election match-ups.  Given the wide variety of GOP candidates and hopefuls, and the limited amount of time which I can devote to this hobby of mine, I will focus on the following races in particular: Obama v. Romney, Obama v. Perry, and Obama v. Bachmann.  Should another candidate emerge, I have data, but I will only present these cases right now, as they seem most likely at the moment.  Given the current atmosphere, the results may surprise you!

Republican Chances

So, just perusing my blogroll and two headlines jumped out to me.  The first was from MSNBC saying that Senator John Thune (R-SD) will not run for president and that in a Minnesota poll Donald Trump (all of a sudden R) is beating Former Gov. Sarah Palin (R-AK).  What these two headlines say to me is that the Republican field of candidates is very weak, and their chances of winning a presidential election are not good.  Now you might say, why would these two headlines be so telling well I have my reasons.

First, John Thune is a great looking candidate.  Well spoken, young, he's been in the Senate for seven years, spent nothing on his re-election last year, and would make a great candidate for the Republicans.  This being said, by him not jumping in, he's reading the tea leaves, and they're saying that the Republicans have no shot in 2012.  If they did, he would have jumped in, the time would have been ripe for him, but he chose to forgo this cycle and I believe he will shoot for 2016.

Second, if Donald Trump, someone who can not be any less serious about or interested in politics, is defeating Sarah Palin, who obviously has her flaws, but is a political figure, in a Republican primary poll, you have to ask yourself...what are the Republicans thinking?  They seem very disorganized and very scattered with regard to who they want to represent their party and what kind of candidate they want to run for president.  The question for them becomes purity or popularity, and if they choose purity they will certainly lose the election in 2012.

Now I'm not saying that its a slam dunk for Democrats. They certainly have their own problems, but its really all about the candidate, and given these two articles at least it seems the Republicans can't figure much out.   I believe if you see less and less 'establishment' Republican candidates decide to forgo this cycle, it will just prove my earlier point, and the chances of a Republican president in 2012 will continue to diminish.

Primary Day (PA, AR, KY Edition) 2010

Okay, so a couple of big primaries were today, most notably, the Democratic and Republican primaries in Kentucky, and the Democratic primaries in Pennsylvania and Arkansas. Adding to this insane amount of interesting political events was the special election in PA-12 which the Republicans were hoping to win to help boost their national meme that people are angry and the GOP will be their savior. They turned out to be wrong.

So the big deal of the night is that Democrats, and more importantly progressives and liberals, win tonight. Why? Well in Kentucky, Paul (Tea bagger) won for the GOP and Conway won for the Dems, and according to all of the polls out of that state pre-primary, this is the best match up for the Democrats. Also, even bigger Paul's defeat over the establishment candidate in the Republican party, which will undoubtedly bring into question the validity of Congressional Republicans, which only helps Democrats.

In Arkansas, the more progressive candidate Bill Halter held Wal-Mart Democrat Blanche Lincoln under 50% which causes an automatic run-off. Once again, this proves that liberals and progressives are enthusiastic about this election, and if they show up in a state as conservative as Arkansas, it is not unthinkable that they will show up to the polls in November when the political environment heats up. Also, Halter runs better against any Republican nominee, and his need to campaign in a run-off will keep his name out there and help him in November.

Lastly, in Pennsylvania Joe Sestak defeated 30 year incumbent Arlen Specter. This is nothing but good for Democrats because one Sestak is more liberal, two he's a stronger and tougher campaigner, three has an intangible that seems more real and down to earth, and four does not have the baggage that Specter has. It seems that Specter was not completely opportunistic in his changing parties, as he has voted almost solidly Democratic and has given his support to Sestak, yet Democrats should be happy that Sestak won, and the improved prospects for the fall. Also, the Democrat won in the PA-12 special election, which kills the GOP talking point that Dems are going to start losing everything, and gives the Dems a much needed boost for the sprint to November.

All in all it was definitely a good night for liberal and progressive Democrats everywhere and shows that the GOP tide which was said to be coming may not be as severe as everyone once thought, and Democrats are getting enthused, something that will surely have a great impact on how bad the 2010 cycle will be for Dems.

Republicans Moving Right

Currently, the Grand Ole' Party of Reagan and Bush are in quite a leadership crisis and there seems to be no apparent direction in which the majority of the party wishes to go. There are those who would like to keep drifting farther and farther right both politically and socially. There are also those who would prefer to move more toward the "center" which, following the 2008 election is still to the right of where the country would prefer to be, but that's what political parties do right. Anyway, in between these two poles we find a varied number of positions and outlooks on the significant, and not so significant, issues of the day. This is all normal within a political party, and is to be expected, the problem with the Republican party comes in the infighting we see on a daily basis among different players within the party.

We have seen this search for a leader and direction in significant ways over the past several weeks. The first major difficulty came in the aftermath following the passage of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act. While most Republican members in Congress decided to oppose the package (all in the House, all but 3 in the Senate), there were Republican governors who believed the package would be useful for their constituents and their states. This has created much turmoil within the Republican party. What the governors, such as Gov. Schwarzenegger (R-CA), Gov. Crist (R-FL), and Gov. Huntsman (R-UT) understand is that without this money, people will literally suffer. The Congressmen and women who chose to be overly, prinicpled ideologues instead of pragmatic legislators, are doing so to simply please the Conservative zealots, and seem to care little about the actual living conditions of the citizens of this country. This final point also applies to those governors of several southern states (Jindal (LA), Barbour (MS), Perry (TX), Sanford (SC), Perdue (GA)) and Alaska (Sarah Palin!!!), who have decided to put national ambition ahead of their constituents and have decided to reject some of the funds for those who need them the most, the unemployed. The Republicans will have to decide what is more important, their tired ideals or their constituents real life needs. Their decision, as of right now seems to be the former, and if it holds to be true, they will be in serious trouble politically, because with the election of Obama, we saw that the polity wass much more interested in real solutions as opposed to hyperpartisan ideals that alienate rather than bring people together.

This brings me to Rush Limbaugh, the darling of the Conservative wing of the Republican party. He is without a doubt the loudest voice on the right, the problem for the party comes when they must decide whether they listen to him, and he becomes the leader of the crowd, or if he is just another voice. It seems they are choosing the former. Time after time the Republicans are allowing Rush to set the agenda. We see this when they give him the keynote at CPAC, or when the newly elected RNC Chairman has to apologize for benignly suggesting he may be the leader of the party that just elected him as their leader. Rush is the driving force behind modern Conservatism and it seems that the old fashion moderate, intellectual conservative is a dying breed and will continue to be so as long as the Republicans keep pushing themselves farther and farther to the right. By examining any of the speeches at the CPAC (check out CSPAN.org, or watch this Daily Show clip), this shift is evident.

The Daily Show With Jon StewartM - Th 11p / 10c

CPAC After Party

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Political Humor
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By moving even farther to the right the Republican party will become increasingly marginal and serve only to act as an obstructionist party. Instead of viewing the landscape of the world in which we live and creating policy positions accordingly, given their world view, the Republican party is holding fast to the principals of the 1980s and early 2000s which have lead to the economic crisis we are in now and disregard the dire situation in which individuals and groups find themselves. When a political party begins to disregard entire groups of persons, it will become marginal, and will have a very tough time winning in multiple, non traditionally Republican parts of the country. Furthermore, it will allow the Democratic Party to spread into some traditionally Republican regions such as the mid and upper mid-west (MO, ND, MT), southwest (AZ), and the Atlantic south (SC, GA). We shall see where the Republicans decide to go in the future, however it seems that they are increasingly moving to the right and favor the incendiary language of Rush to the more moderate and pragmatic tones that may actually win an election.