Obama v. Romney 2012 Predictions

The general election for the presidency of the United States in 2012 will be one of the most hotly contested races.  The political cable news media is only getting more intense, and the bases on both sides will be very aggressive in terms of advocating for their candidate (probably).  As of today, November 5, 2011, three scenarios seem most likely 1) Obama v. Romney, 2) Obama v. Perry, or 3) Obama v. Cain.  I have compiled state polling data on each of these three races (among others) and as a result have the following race ratings/predictions for each scenario.  Today I will focus on Obama v. Romney and the numbers.

Obama v. Romney
Most people in politics and the political media believe Romney will be the eventual nominee of the Republican party.  Also, he has been in the race for president since 2007.  As a result, the Obama/Romney race has been the most polled in the individual states.  Here is how I see the race as of right now.

SAFE DEMOCRATIC-159        LIKELY DEMOCRATIC-67          LEANS DEMOCRATIC-47
Hawaii (D+27) 4                          Michigan (D+10.2) 16                Wisconsin (D+5.2) 10
New York (D+21) 29                    Washington (D+9.1) 12              Pennsylvania (D+4.9) 20
Vermont (D+20) 3                        Connecticut (D+8.3) 7               Arizona (D+4.8) 11
Massachusetts (D+19.4) 11          Maine (D+7.3) 4                        Iowa (D+3.7) 6
Rhode Island (D+17) 4                 New Mexico (D+7) 5
California (D+15.4) 55                  Colorado (D+7) 9
Minnesota (D+15) 10                    New Jersey (D+6.5) 14
Oregon (D+12) 7
Illinois (D+11.5) 20
Delaware 3
Maryland 10
Washington, DC 3


TOSS UP-81
Ohio (D+2.7) 18
North Carolina (D+0.5) 15
Florida (D+0.3) 29
Nevada (D+0.1) 6
Virginia (R+2.0) 13

SAFE REPUBLICAN-70             LIKELY REPUBLICAN-39              LEANS REPUBLICAN-75
Utah (R+32) 6                              New Hampshire (R+8.6) 4             Missouri (R+3.9) 10
West Virginia (R+18.4) 5               Kentucky (R+8) 8                          Texas (R+3.3) 38
Louisiana (R+16) 8                       Montana (R+8) 3                           Georgia (R+3) 16
Tennessee (R+15) 11                    South Carolina (R+6.8) 9                Indiana 11
Nebraska (R+13) 5                       South Dakota (R+6) 3
Alabama 9                                    Mississippi (R+6) 6
Arkansas 6                                    Alaska 3
Idaho 4                                         North Dakota 3          
Kansas 6
Oklahoma 7
Wyoming 3

The states without D+ or R+ have not had any polling data up to this point in the cycle and I have handicapped them based on past voting trends, while taking into account the candidates and how they (or similar candidates) may have performed in these states in the past.

Not counting the TOSS UP states, the current electoral vote totals would be: Obama 273, Romney 184, Toss up 81...meaning that even if Obama lost OH, NC, FL, NV, VA, NH, and IN...if he can hold PA, WI, and IA and take AZ he will win reelection, but just barely.  My popular vote results would be ~46% Obama to ~41% Romney, with still 13% remaining undecided, leaving a lot of room for either side; however, its important to note that Obama only needs ~30% of those undecideds to get back to 50%.

Arizona is probably more of a toss up, but the only current polling data shows Obama leading.  I would also expect NH to come closer to the Democratic side.  I'm really interested in what the polling data says for Indiana and Georgia, but no one has polled them recently.  If Texas comes into play, then I would say the election would be over.

I am definitely favoring Obama for reelection, all things considered, giving this data, I have him leading 341 to 197.   

11/2/11 Obama's Up and Cain Surviving

Today's polling data came fast and early with a flurry of both state and national polls from various organizations which help to both clarify and muddy the 2012 election picture.  So what do these polls mean? Here's my take, as usual.


1) Obama Approval - Gallup 1500 Adults 10/30-11/1, 45% approve, 48% disapprove...Obama= +2% approval, -2% disapproval (net +4%) 


2) Obama Approval - Rasmussen 1500 LV 10/30-11/1, 44% approve, 55% disapprove...Obama=no change in approval/disapproval (no net change)


3) Obama Approval - Quinnipiac 2294 RV 10/27-10/30, 47% approve, 49% disapprove...Obama= +6% approval, -6% disapproval (net +12%)


While Rasmussen shows the President remaining at a negative eleven percent approval rating, the approval number is still at 44% which is not horrible for the president given the state of the economy and negative attitudes throughout the country.  Additionally, the Quinnipiac and Gallup polls bring great news to the White House as they show a twelve and four point turn around for the President nationally since their last polls, Quinnipiac's being around one month ago.  It will be essential for Obama's approval be near fifty percent, and this is just another poll showing that Obama is gaining traction with the public, and that the American people are waking up and beginning to see more and more who is really fighting for them, and who is blocking any progression.


I still see December as the month where Obama's numbers will really start to pick up. The next few days will also be telling as to whether Obama's approval will increase further as the Congress will vote on an infrastructure portion of the original jobs bill and the unemployment numbers will be released.  I think on the first issue, Obama wins either way as he will either get the bill passed, which will create jobs and show the President's policies work OR it gets voted down and the Republicans continue to be obstructionists, and Obama is seen as working for the American people, and caring, something which means more than you might think.

And now the state polls, both presidential and GOP primary....


4) Florida President - Suffolk/7News 800 RV 10/26-10/30

• 42% Obama, 42% Romney
• 46% Obama, 34% Perry
• 42% Obama, 39% Cain
• 45% Obama, 38% Gingrich
• 44% Obama, 32% Paul

Florida is going to be one of the closest state races should Mitt Romney win the Republican nomination.  If any other candidate becomes the Republican nominee I would immediately say that Florida would Lean Democratic, something which I would believe of most of the toss up states should Romney not win the GOP nomination.  

Right now, my polling average shows the race almost a dead heat...Obama 43.77% v. Romney 43.48% (Obama +0.29%).  Continue to see the polling in this state to see saw a couple points between the candidates, but if Obama's continues as it has been look for Obama to be ahead of Romney by ~3-5% points.

5) Florida GOP Primary - Suffolk/7News 287 RV 10/26-10/30, 25% Romney, 24% Cain, 11% Gingrich, 9% Perry, 5% Paul, 2% Huntsman, 1% Bachmann, 1% Santorum

6) South Carolina GOP Primary - Rasmussen 770 LV 11/1, 33% Cain, 23% Romney, 15% Gingrich, 9% Perry, 5% Paul, 2% Bachmann, 1% Huntsman, 1% Santorum

Both of these polls show the same thing, something which I pointed out yesterday.  Romney is stagnant.  His numbers are not moving up or down in any way and it seems his support in these two key states is stuck around 30% and 25% respectively.  In contrast, Cain has ticked up slightly in Florida and by a large degree in South Carolina, where he has now taken the lead.  What is more interesting to note is that the Rasmussen poll was taken the day after the sexual harassment story broke, and up to now, it seems to have had no effect, as I predicted yesterday.  Perry is still plummeting and I don't see him picking up steam at all.  Gingrich is ticking up as well and was third place in both of these polls, the one on one debate between Cain and Gingrich will be very interesting to watch, as they seem to have very similar voters (e.g. angry, passionate, very anti-Obama, etc.).  Don't count out Cain yet.

7) North Carolina President - Public Policy Polling 615 LV 10/27-10/31

• 45% Obama, 46% Romney
• 50% Obama, 42% Perry
• 47% Obama, 44% Cain
• 50% Obama, 43% Gingrich
• 48% Obama, 40% Paul
• 50% Obama, 42% Bachmann

Like Florida, I see North Carolina being a toss up if Romney is the nominee, and a Lean Democratic state should any other candidate get the GOP nomination.  The state has been trending Democratic and is one which the Obama 2012 team really wants to keep in the Democratic column.  I would even say that it seems more likely that Obama will win NC, than states such as FL, NV, VA, or NH given the current standing of the president, and that Romney is the nominee.  However, I would say that the president's approval had been at an all time low, and as a Republican nominee emerges, the Democratic message will coalesce and I would imagine Obama's numbers to rise.  

Right now, the race between Obama and Romney stands at...Obama 45.34% v. Romney 44.80% (Obama +0.54%).  I would predict Obama winning NC by ~2% if Romney is the nominee, and by 5-8% should any other GOP candidate be the nominee.  

11/1/11 - Tuesday Polling Update - Cain Continues to Ride High

Today's polls provide show us that Herman Cain's support may be a lot more widespread than we thought, and that Mitt Romney, while to most sensible choice is still having a tough time garnering support, even in his own neck of the woods.

Starting off, the President's Approval numbers seem stagnant this week, not moving much in either direction.

1) Obama Approval - Gallup 1500 Adults 10/29-10/31, 43% approve, 50% disapprove...Obama= no change in  approval/disapproval (net no change)


2) Obama Approval - Rasmussen 1500 LV 10/29-10/31, 44% approve, 55% disapprove...Obama= -1% approval, +1% disapproval (net -2%)


3) Obama Approval - PPP/Daily Kos 1000 RV 10/27-10/30, 42% approve, 53% disapprove...Obama= -2% approval, +2% disapproval (net -4%)


As I said, I think that stagnant is the best word to possibly describe the President's approval ratings.  Right now, they're not increasing; however, they are not sinking to the same level which they would in the dog days of the summer.  If the media picks up more on the implementation of the executive announcements which are beginning to be signed this week, and people get a better sense of his urgency with regard to boosting the economy, I see his numbers ticking up but very slowly.  Additionally, it seems that the White House is doing somewhat of a media blitz to inform people of the significance of the aforementioned announcements.  Also, the jobs number will be telling on Friday and could either inflate the public's mood or depress it depending on the number, I predict the former.

Now the state Republican primary polling...

4) Maine GOP Primary - Public Policy Polling 250 LV 10/28-10/31, 29% Cain, 24% Romney, 18% Gingrich, 5% Bachmann, 5% Paul, 4% Perry, 2% Santorum, 1% Huntsman

Once again, Herman Cain finds himself at the top of a state primary poll.  What's even more surprising is that it is in the North East, a region which many thought Mitt Romney had sewn up.  However, Maine, like New Hampshire, is a very quirky state and can have a lot more conservative tendencies, than say states like Connecticut, Rhode Island, Massachusetts, and of course Vermont.  While this poll was taken before the Cain sex harassment story blew up in the media, it is still very telling about the amount of support Cain has built up throughout the country.  It is also a definite hit to Mitt Romney.  Conservatives simply don't trust him to be an advocate for their policies and ideals, and as a result they are looking for another candidate to fulfill those needs, and right now Cain is their man.  Most seem to think that this most recent scandal will hurt Cain; however, I believe that it will not, and for one simple reason...conservative media.  Conservative media has rallied around Cain and see this story as another example of the liberal media elite stereotyping an African American conservative.  As with in most cases, I believe their flock will follow them, and Cain will not be damaged by this story, and if he is it will be only minimal. 

5) Maine Senate GOP Primary - Public Policy Polling 250 LV 10/28-10/31, 62% Olympia Snowe (incumbent), 10% Scott D'Amboise, 7% Andrew Ian Dodge

Snowe looks a lot safer than she has in the past.  I personally believe that if she has ONE conservative challenger, and the more conservative members of the Maine GOP rally around that person, then that person would give Snowe a run for her money.  However, it doesn't seem like that will happen at this moment, so as of now I would bet on Snowe being the nominee, which makes it VERY LIKELY that this seat would stay REPUBLICAN.

5) North Carolina GOP Primary - Public Policy Polling 474 LV 10/27-10/31, 30% Cain, 22% Gingrich, 19% Romney, 10% Perry, 4% Bachmann, 4% Paul, 2% Huntsman, 2% Santorum

This is the second time PPP has polled North Carolina since his surge in the polls, and his numbers have only increased.  I don't see this being a state in which Romney has a good shot at winning.  While the results of the primary may have nothing to do with who wins the nomination (it won't be held until May 8, 2012), the poll is still a good way to show the attitudes of southern voters, and once again, one thing is clear...they are not happy with Mitt Romney as a possible nominee.  Even more so, BOTH the Maine and North Carolina polls show that Romney isn't even the second choice for a large majority of those who claim to support Cain.  Most of these likely primary voters like Gingrich should Cain not be the nominee, and if Cain does implode it would be interesting to see if Gingrich could rally that support to his side and turn out to be a contender, even after the disastrous roll out his campaign had.  Even noting that Gingrich has a shot, says something really bad about the Republican party, and shows that they are not in a strong position for 2012, and that the person who would have the best shot at defeating Obama (i.e. Romney), is the one they like the least.   

My 2012 Forecasting

With the balance of power in government being so delicate and next year, 2012, be such a critical year with regard to the same, it is important for those interested in politics to engage in debate, discussion, and conversation about the elections and events which lead up to them.  This is something which I will once again attempt to do, hopefully more consistently.  As a result, I will attempt to shed some light on House, Senate, and Presidential races on a state to state basis.  In doing so, I will attempt to take various different resources, sites, and views to draw up a bigger picture take on the politics at play and the impact they will have on the elections over the next two years.  Over the next couple of days, I will be posting on different races that peak my interest and where they stand now.  Be on the look out!

Republican Chances

So, just perusing my blogroll and two headlines jumped out to me.  The first was from MSNBC saying that Senator John Thune (R-SD) will not run for president and that in a Minnesota poll Donald Trump (all of a sudden R) is beating Former Gov. Sarah Palin (R-AK).  What these two headlines say to me is that the Republican field of candidates is very weak, and their chances of winning a presidential election are not good.  Now you might say, why would these two headlines be so telling well I have my reasons.

First, John Thune is a great looking candidate.  Well spoken, young, he's been in the Senate for seven years, spent nothing on his re-election last year, and would make a great candidate for the Republicans.  This being said, by him not jumping in, he's reading the tea leaves, and they're saying that the Republicans have no shot in 2012.  If they did, he would have jumped in, the time would have been ripe for him, but he chose to forgo this cycle and I believe he will shoot for 2016.

Second, if Donald Trump, someone who can not be any less serious about or interested in politics, is defeating Sarah Palin, who obviously has her flaws, but is a political figure, in a Republican primary poll, you have to ask yourself...what are the Republicans thinking?  They seem very disorganized and very scattered with regard to who they want to represent their party and what kind of candidate they want to run for president.  The question for them becomes purity or popularity, and if they choose purity they will certainly lose the election in 2012.

Now I'm not saying that its a slam dunk for Democrats. They certainly have their own problems, but its really all about the candidate, and given these two articles at least it seems the Republicans can't figure much out.   I believe if you see less and less 'establishment' Republican candidates decide to forgo this cycle, it will just prove my earlier point, and the chances of a Republican president in 2012 will continue to diminish.