Nevada poll showing Angle up 50 to 39 simply can no be right remember RAS had Paul up by 25 post primary and all others and conv wisdom has him up only ~8 points...both Reid and Angle are prob around low 40s maybe slight bounce for Angle but no way is it 11 points

AL, CO, FL, IL, NC Updates

Tuesday (6/8/2010):
NC: PPP 6/5 601 Cunningham 35% Burr 46%; Marshall 39% Burr 46%
RAS 6/3 500 Cunningham 35% Burr 47%; Marshall 36% Burr 50%
Would like to see Burr's numbers lower, he's been hovering around 46% this whole cycle. I think Marshall would definitely be a better candidate for the Dems, although neither Dem can seem to break the 40% mark just yet. Right now this seat will probably stay GOP, but its early and Burr does not have strong support whatsoever, so its a long shot but could be a surprise win for Dems.
--> Remains Favored Republican with Burr over Cunningham +8.5% and Burr over Marshall +6.5%

AL: RAS 6/3 500 Barnes 31% Shelby 58%;
-->Safe Republican Shelby over Barnes +24.8%

Wednesday (6/9/2010):
FL: QUIN 6/4 1,133 Meek 17% Crist 37% Rubio 33%
RAS 6/7 500 Meek 15% Crist 37% Rubio 37%
-->Toss Up: Crist over Rubio +1.3

CO: RAS 6/7 500 Bennet 40% Norton 46%
Bennet 41% Buck 46%
Romanoff 42% Norton 43%
Romanoff 39% Buck 45%
--> Race shifts from Leans Democrat to Toss Up Bennet over Norton +.4%, Bennet over Buck +2.6%, Romanoff over Norton +2.0%, and Romanoff over Buck +.6%

IL: RAS 6/7 500 Giannoulias 39% Kirk 42%
--> Race shifts from Leans Republican to Toss Up Kirk over Giannoulias +2.0%

WA: Rest of a U of Washington poll, only 221 respondents from 5/24-5/28, high margin of error (+/- 6.6) Murray 39% Rossi 42%...against generic GOP 46% to 41%, likely to see this race settle to a margin closer to the latter than the former

OH: Rasmussen 6/3 500 people, Fisher (D) 43% Portman (R) 43%. This is good news for Fisher, he's keeping it close in a race that for some reason a lot of people seem to be writing off for the Dems. With this new poll he's probably about 2 points ahead given Rasmussen's highly GOP tilted house effects for this cycle. This has to be, either the first or second best pick up chance for the Dems this year, with Missouri in the other slot. (imo OH is first, then MO).

New projection numbers coming soon using new pollster ratings from fivethirtyeight.com, overall everything is pretty much the same slight variations bc of new ratings/inserting house effects, should give more accurate forecast

CORRECTION: Anlgle leads Reid by 3 similar to last M-D poll...doesn't change my opinion much tho

NV poll from Mason Dixon shows Angle with almost 10 pt lead in the GOP primary...in general 625 people dates unsure shows Reid 44 Angle 41, Reid 42 Lowden 41, and Reid 39 Tarkanian 46...imo Tarkanian is def strongest candidate but seems GOP will nominate Angle and improve Dem hopes...still tossup but I say D +2-3 esp if Angle is candidate