So this past weekend I posted two race prediction posts for either an Obama/Romney or Obama/Perry general election in 2012. Both showed President Obama doing fairly well in the face of strong head winds. As a result, I got some flack from certain commenters on the DailyKos for painting to 'rosy' of a picture. I want to state again that my race ratings and predictions are based on calculated averages of polling data based on the polls' recentness, sample size and the quality of the pollster. The results which I reported on my posts are a product of these calculations, so if you are to believe the predictions are 'too left' or biased, I say...look at the state polls.
Now for today's daily (or almost daily) polling up date...
1) Obama Approval - Gallup 1500 Adults 11/4-11/6, 43% approve, 50% disapprove...Obama= +1% approval, +/-0% disapproval (net +1% Obama)
2) Obama Approval - Rasmussen 1500 LV 11/4-11/6, 47% approve, 52% disapprove...Obama= +2% approval, -1% disapproval (net +3% Obama)
These are two pretty good results for the President. Particularly, when one looks at the Rasmussen poll, Obama has his best performance (only down 5) since early August of this year, save one day in early October. What's even more interesting is that his strongly approve/strongly disapprove numbers are getting increasingly better, something that may show the Democratic base may be rallying around the President and picking up enthusiasm as we head into 2012.
For the states...
3) Iowa GOP Caucus- Insider Advantage 507 LV 11/3. 30% Cain, 15% Romney, 12% Gingrich, 9% Paul, 8% Bachmann, 6% Perry, 2% Huntsman
4) Iowa GOP Caucus- We Ask America 864 LV 22% Cain, 18% Gingrich, 15% Romney, 11% Bachmann, 11% Paul, 4% Perry, 3% Santorum, 2% Huntsman
A couple of things to note...
Now for today's daily (or almost daily) polling up date...
1) Obama Approval - Gallup 1500 Adults 11/4-11/6, 43% approve, 50% disapprove...Obama= +1% approval, +/-0% disapproval (net +1% Obama)
2) Obama Approval - Rasmussen 1500 LV 11/4-11/6, 47% approve, 52% disapprove...Obama= +2% approval, -1% disapproval (net +3% Obama)
These are two pretty good results for the President. Particularly, when one looks at the Rasmussen poll, Obama has his best performance (only down 5) since early August of this year, save one day in early October. What's even more interesting is that his strongly approve/strongly disapprove numbers are getting increasingly better, something that may show the Democratic base may be rallying around the President and picking up enthusiasm as we head into 2012.
My Average: 43.4% Approval, 51.9% Disapproval
3) Iowa GOP Caucus- Insider Advantage 507 LV 11/3. 30% Cain, 15% Romney, 12% Gingrich, 9% Paul, 8% Bachmann, 6% Perry, 2% Huntsman
4) Iowa GOP Caucus- We Ask America 864 LV 22% Cain, 18% Gingrich, 15% Romney, 11% Bachmann, 11% Paul, 4% Perry, 3% Santorum, 2% Huntsman
A couple of things to note...
- Cain continues to lead...Everyone seems to believe that the sex harassment scandal will hurt Herman Cain; however, I continue to say, as I have since last week, that I don't believe this will have much of an effect on Cain. The conservative media is rallying around Cain and painting him as a victim of the 'liberal media,' and let's face it there are many conservative men who may not care whether the accusations are true or not.
- Perry is sinking even faster...He is now in 6th place in both of these polls, behind Bachmann and Paul, yet the media still believe he will be a factor in the nomination because of his 'money.' However, he's getting very close to Santorum/Hunstman territory which is not a good sign for his campaign, making Gingrich seem much more viable than Perry in many of the key early states.
Iowa GOP Average: 22.3% Cain, 19.3% Romney, 10.9% Gingrich, 11.2% Paul, 9.8% Bachmann, 8.6% Perry, 3.5% Santorum, 1.7% Huntsman
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