Today's polling data came fast and early with a flurry of both state and national polls from various organizations which help to both clarify and muddy the 2012 election picture. So what do these polls mean? Here's my take, as usual.
1) Obama Approval - Gallup 1500 Adults 10/30-11/1, 45% approve, 48% disapprove...Obama= +2% approval, -2% disapproval (net +4%)
2) Obama Approval - Rasmussen 1500 LV 10/30-11/1, 44% approve, 55% disapprove...Obama=no change in approval/disapproval (no net change)
3) Obama Approval - Quinnipiac 2294 RV 10/27-10/30, 47% approve, 49% disapprove...Obama= +6% approval, -6% disapproval (net +12%)
While Rasmussen shows the President remaining at a negative eleven percent approval rating, the approval number is still at 44% which is not horrible for the president given the state of the economy and negative attitudes throughout the country. Additionally, the Quinnipiac and Gallup polls bring great news to the White House as they show a twelve and four point turn around for the President nationally since their last polls, Quinnipiac's being around one month ago. It will be essential for Obama's approval be near fifty percent, and this is just another poll showing that Obama is gaining traction with the public, and that the American people are waking up and beginning to see more and more who is really fighting for them, and who is blocking any progression.
I still see December as the month where Obama's numbers will really start to pick up. The next few days will also be telling as to whether Obama's approval will increase further as the Congress will vote on an infrastructure portion of the original jobs bill and the unemployment numbers will be released. I think on the first issue, Obama wins either way as he will either get the bill passed, which will create jobs and show the President's policies work OR it gets voted down and the Republicans continue to be obstructionists, and Obama is seen as working for the American people, and caring, something which means more than you might think.
And now the state polls, both presidential and GOP primary....
4) Florida President - Suffolk/7News 800 RV 10/26-10/30
1) Obama Approval - Gallup 1500 Adults 10/30-11/1, 45% approve, 48% disapprove...Obama= +2% approval, -2% disapproval (net +4%)
2) Obama Approval - Rasmussen 1500 LV 10/30-11/1, 44% approve, 55% disapprove...Obama=no change in approval/disapproval (no net change)
3) Obama Approval - Quinnipiac 2294 RV 10/27-10/30, 47% approve, 49% disapprove...Obama= +6% approval, -6% disapproval (net +12%)
While Rasmussen shows the President remaining at a negative eleven percent approval rating, the approval number is still at 44% which is not horrible for the president given the state of the economy and negative attitudes throughout the country. Additionally, the Quinnipiac and Gallup polls bring great news to the White House as they show a twelve and four point turn around for the President nationally since their last polls, Quinnipiac's being around one month ago. It will be essential for Obama's approval be near fifty percent, and this is just another poll showing that Obama is gaining traction with the public, and that the American people are waking up and beginning to see more and more who is really fighting for them, and who is blocking any progression.
I still see December as the month where Obama's numbers will really start to pick up. The next few days will also be telling as to whether Obama's approval will increase further as the Congress will vote on an infrastructure portion of the original jobs bill and the unemployment numbers will be released. I think on the first issue, Obama wins either way as he will either get the bill passed, which will create jobs and show the President's policies work OR it gets voted down and the Republicans continue to be obstructionists, and Obama is seen as working for the American people, and caring, something which means more than you might think.
And now the state polls, both presidential and GOP primary....
4) Florida President - Suffolk/7News 800 RV 10/26-10/30
- 42% Obama, 42% Romney
- 46% Obama, 34% Perry
- 42% Obama, 39% Cain
- 45% Obama, 38% Gingrich
- 44% Obama, 32% Paul
Florida is going to be one of the closest state races should Mitt Romney win the Republican nomination. If any other candidate becomes the Republican nominee I would immediately say that Florida would Lean Democratic, something which I would believe of most of the toss up states should Romney not win the GOP nomination.
Right now, my polling average shows the race almost a dead heat...Obama 43.77% v. Romney 43.48% (Obama +0.29%). Continue to see the polling in this state to see saw a couple points between the candidates, but if Obama's continues as it has been look for Obama to be ahead of Romney by ~3-5% points.
5) Florida GOP Primary - Suffolk/7News 287 RV 10/26-10/30, 25% Romney, 24% Cain, 11% Gingrich, 9% Perry, 5% Paul, 2% Huntsman, 1% Bachmann, 1% Santorum
6) South Carolina GOP Primary - Rasmussen 770 LV 11/1, 33% Cain, 23% Romney, 15% Gingrich, 9% Perry, 5% Paul, 2% Bachmann, 1% Huntsman, 1% Santorum
Both of these polls show the same thing, something which I pointed out yesterday. Romney is stagnant. His numbers are not moving up or down in any way and it seems his support in these two key states is stuck around 30% and 25% respectively. In contrast, Cain has ticked up slightly in Florida and by a large degree in South Carolina, where he has now taken the lead. What is more interesting to note is that the Rasmussen poll was taken the day after the sexual harassment story broke, and up to now, it seems to have had no effect, as I predicted yesterday. Perry is still plummeting and I don't see him picking up steam at all. Gingrich is ticking up as well and was third place in both of these polls, the one on one debate between Cain and Gingrich will be very interesting to watch, as they seem to have very similar voters (e.g. angry, passionate, very anti-Obama, etc.). Don't count out Cain yet.
7) North Carolina President - Public Policy Polling 615 LV 10/27-10/31
- 45% Obama, 46% Romney
- 50% Obama, 42% Perry
- 47% Obama, 44% Cain
- 50% Obama, 43% Gingrich
- 48% Obama, 40% Paul
- 50% Obama, 42% Bachmann
Like Florida, I see North Carolina being a toss up if Romney is the nominee, and a Lean Democratic state should any other candidate get the GOP nomination. The state has been trending Democratic and is one which the Obama 2012 team really wants to keep in the Democratic column. I would even say that it seems more likely that Obama will win NC, than states such as FL, NV, VA, or NH given the current standing of the president, and that Romney is the nominee. However, I would say that the president's approval had been at an all time low, and as a Republican nominee emerges, the Democratic message will coalesce and I would imagine Obama's numbers to rise.
Right now, the race between Obama and Romney stands at...Obama 45.34% v. Romney 44.80% (Obama +0.54%). I would predict Obama winning NC by ~2% if Romney is the nominee, and by 5-8% should any other GOP candidate be the nominee.
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