The general election for the presidency of the United States in 2012 will be one of the most hotly contested races. The political cable news media is only getting more intense, and the bases on both sides will be very aggressive in terms of advocating for their candidate (probably). As of today, November 5, 2011, three scenarios seem most likely 1) Obama v. Romney, 2) Obama v. Perry, or 3) Obama v. Cain. I have compiled state polling data on each of these three races (among others) and as a result have the following race ratings/predictions for each scenario. Today I will focus on Obama v. Romney and the numbers.
Obama v. Romney
Most people in politics and the political media believe Romney will be the eventual nominee of the Republican party. Also, he has been in the race for president since 2007. As a result, the Obama/Romney race has been the most polled in the individual states. Here is how I see the race as of right now.
SAFE DEMOCRATIC-159 LIKELY DEMOCRATIC-67 LEANS DEMOCRATIC-47
Hawaii (D+27) 4 Michigan (D+10.2) 16 Wisconsin (D+5.2) 10
New York (D+21) 29 Washington (D+9.1) 12 Pennsylvania (D+4.9) 20
Vermont (D+20) 3 Connecticut (D+8.3) 7 Arizona (D+4.8) 11
Massachusetts (D+19.4) 11 Maine (D+7.3) 4 Iowa (D+3.7) 6
Rhode Island (D+17) 4 New Mexico (D+7) 5
California (D+15.4) 55 Colorado (D+7) 9
Minnesota (D+15) 10 New Jersey (D+6.5) 14
Oregon (D+12) 7
Illinois (D+11.5) 20
Delaware 3
Maryland 10
Washington, DC 3
TOSS UP-81
Ohio (D+2.7) 18
North Carolina (D+0.5) 15
Florida (D+0.3) 29
Nevada (D+0.1) 6
Virginia (R+2.0) 13
SAFE REPUBLICAN-70 LIKELY REPUBLICAN-39 LEANS REPUBLICAN-75
Utah (R+32) 6 New Hampshire (R+8.6) 4 Missouri (R+3.9) 10
West Virginia (R+18.4) 5 Kentucky (R+8) 8 Texas (R+3.3) 38
Louisiana (R+16) 8 Montana (R+8) 3 Georgia (R+3) 16
Tennessee (R+15) 11 South Carolina (R+6.8) 9 Indiana 11
Nebraska (R+13) 5 South Dakota (R+6) 3
Alabama 9 Mississippi (R+6) 6
Arkansas 6 Alaska 3
Idaho 4 North Dakota 3
Kansas 6
Oklahoma 7
Wyoming 3
The states without D+ or R+ have not had any polling data up to this point in the cycle and I have handicapped them based on past voting trends, while taking into account the candidates and how they (or similar candidates) may have performed in these states in the past.
Not counting the TOSS UP states, the current electoral vote totals would be: Obama 273, Romney 184, Toss up 81...meaning that even if Obama lost OH, NC, FL, NV, VA, NH, and IN...if he can hold PA, WI, and IA and take AZ he will win reelection, but just barely. My popular vote results would be ~46% Obama to ~41% Romney, with still 13% remaining undecided, leaving a lot of room for either side; however, its important to note that Obama only needs ~30% of those undecideds to get back to 50%.
Arizona is probably more of a toss up, but the only current polling data shows Obama leading. I would also expect NH to come closer to the Democratic side. I'm really interested in what the polling data says for Indiana and Georgia, but no one has polled them recently. If Texas comes into play, then I would say the election would be over.
I am definitely favoring Obama for reelection, all things considered, giving this data, I have him leading 341 to 197.
Obama v. Romney
Most people in politics and the political media believe Romney will be the eventual nominee of the Republican party. Also, he has been in the race for president since 2007. As a result, the Obama/Romney race has been the most polled in the individual states. Here is how I see the race as of right now.
SAFE DEMOCRATIC-159 LIKELY DEMOCRATIC-67 LEANS DEMOCRATIC-47
Hawaii (D+27) 4 Michigan (D+10.2) 16 Wisconsin (D+5.2) 10
New York (D+21) 29 Washington (D+9.1) 12 Pennsylvania (D+4.9) 20
Vermont (D+20) 3 Connecticut (D+8.3) 7 Arizona (D+4.8) 11
Massachusetts (D+19.4) 11 Maine (D+7.3) 4 Iowa (D+3.7) 6
Rhode Island (D+17) 4 New Mexico (D+7) 5
California (D+15.4) 55 Colorado (D+7) 9
Minnesota (D+15) 10 New Jersey (D+6.5) 14
Oregon (D+12) 7
Illinois (D+11.5) 20
Delaware 3
Maryland 10
Washington, DC 3
TOSS UP-81
Ohio (D+2.7) 18
North Carolina (D+0.5) 15
Florida (D+0.3) 29
Nevada (D+0.1) 6
Virginia (R+2.0) 13
SAFE REPUBLICAN-70 LIKELY REPUBLICAN-39 LEANS REPUBLICAN-75
Utah (R+32) 6 New Hampshire (R+8.6) 4 Missouri (R+3.9) 10
West Virginia (R+18.4) 5 Kentucky (R+8) 8 Texas (R+3.3) 38
Louisiana (R+16) 8 Montana (R+8) 3 Georgia (R+3) 16
Tennessee (R+15) 11 South Carolina (R+6.8) 9 Indiana 11
Nebraska (R+13) 5 South Dakota (R+6) 3
Alabama 9 Mississippi (R+6) 6
Arkansas 6 Alaska 3
Idaho 4 North Dakota 3
Kansas 6
Oklahoma 7
Wyoming 3
The states without D+ or R+ have not had any polling data up to this point in the cycle and I have handicapped them based on past voting trends, while taking into account the candidates and how they (or similar candidates) may have performed in these states in the past.
Not counting the TOSS UP states, the current electoral vote totals would be: Obama 273, Romney 184, Toss up 81...meaning that even if Obama lost OH, NC, FL, NV, VA, NH, and IN...if he can hold PA, WI, and IA and take AZ he will win reelection, but just barely. My popular vote results would be ~46% Obama to ~41% Romney, with still 13% remaining undecided, leaving a lot of room for either side; however, its important to note that Obama only needs ~30% of those undecideds to get back to 50%.
Arizona is probably more of a toss up, but the only current polling data shows Obama leading. I would also expect NH to come closer to the Democratic side. I'm really interested in what the polling data says for Indiana and Georgia, but no one has polled them recently. If Texas comes into play, then I would say the election would be over.
I am definitely favoring Obama for reelection, all things considered, giving this data, I have him leading 341 to 197.
1 comment:
Gitcher bets in early. If the economy improves: by that I mean if more Americans go back to work, then it's a shoo-in. I think. I wish he could create a large public works program by executive order.
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