Yesterday I laid out what is probably the most likely scenario for the 2012 general election for president, Obama v. Romney. Today I will focus on Rick Perry's chances against Obama as of today, November 6, 2011. Although Perry's numbers are low, many think he is the second most likely Republican nominee due to the amount of money he has on hand, and the establishment 'cred' he has in the GOP.
Obama v. Perry
Due to Perry's 'late' entry into the race in August, there is not the same amount of polling as with Romney, so more of this prediction is conjecture, but the numbers also speak for themselves. Here is how I see the race as of right now.
SAFE DEMOCRATIC-232 LIKELY DEMOCRATIC-94 LEANS DEMOCRATIC-32
Hawaii (D+35) 4 Wisconsin (D+10.6) 10 North Carolina (D+5.7) 15
Massachusetts (D+32.4) 11 Nevada (D+9.9) 6 New Hampshire (D+5) 4
Vermont (D+29) 3 Iowa (D+9.5) 6 Virginia (D+3.3) 13
New York (D+29.8) 29 Ohio (D+9.1) 18
California (D+21) 55 Florida (D+9) 29
Illinois (D+20.4) 20 Arizona (D+6) 11
Michigan (D+20.2) 16 Colorado 9
Maine (D+18.4) 4 New Mexico 5
Connecticut (D+16) 7
Washington (D+13.3) 12
New Jersey (D+13) 14
Pennsylvania (D+11.5) 20
Minnesota 10
Oregon 7
Delaware 3
Maryland 10
Rhode Island 4
Washington, DC 3
TOSS UP-19
South Carolina (R+1.6) 9
Missouri (R+2) 10
SAFE REPUBLICAN-65 LIKELY REPUBLICAN-66 LEANS REPUBLICAN-30
Louisiana (R+15) 8 Kentucky (R+7) 8 Georgia 16
West Virginia (R+14.6) 5 Nebraska (R+7) 5 Indiana 11
Tennessee (R+15) 11 Texas (R+7.2) 38 Montana 3
Alabama 9 South Dakota (R+6) 3
Arkansas 6 Alaska 3
Idaho 4 North Dakota 3
Kansas 6 Mississippi 6
Oklahoma 7
Wyoming 3
Utah 6
The states without D+ or R+ have not had any polling data up to this point in the cycle and I have handicapped them based on past voting trends, while taking into account the candidates and how they (or similar candidates) may have performed in these states in the past.
Not counting the TOSS UP states, the current electoral vote totals would be: Obama 358, Perry 161, Toss up 19...My popular vote results would be ~49% Obama to ~38% Perry, with still 13% remaining undecided, leaving a lot of room for either side; however, its important to note that Obama has an 11 point lead and is just about at 50%. He would be in a much better position with Perry as the nominee compared to Romney, as Perry turns out to be a more polarizing figure, with most people not liking him. To see South Carolina in the Toss Up category is staggering, but really shows the amount of space Perry has to make up, even in the south.
As with Romney, Arizona is probably more of a toss up, but the only current polling data shows Obama leading. I would expect VA, FL, OH and NC to be closer because the GOP base will coalesce, but I still think Obama would win these states. Once again, I'm really interested in what the polling data says for Indiana and Georgia, but no one has polled them recently.
I am strongly favoring Obama for reelection should Perry be the nominee. All things considered, giving this data, I have him leading 358 to 180.
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