Primary Day (PA, AR, KY Edition) 2010

Okay, so a couple of big primaries were today, most notably, the Democratic and Republican primaries in Kentucky, and the Democratic primaries in Pennsylvania and Arkansas. Adding to this insane amount of interesting political events was the special election in PA-12 which the Republicans were hoping to win to help boost their national meme that people are angry and the GOP will be their savior. They turned out to be wrong.

So the big deal of the night is that Democrats, and more importantly progressives and liberals, win tonight. Why? Well in Kentucky, Paul (Tea bagger) won for the GOP and Conway won for the Dems, and according to all of the polls out of that state pre-primary, this is the best match up for the Democrats. Also, even bigger Paul's defeat over the establishment candidate in the Republican party, which will undoubtedly bring into question the validity of Congressional Republicans, which only helps Democrats.

In Arkansas, the more progressive candidate Bill Halter held Wal-Mart Democrat Blanche Lincoln under 50% which causes an automatic run-off. Once again, this proves that liberals and progressives are enthusiastic about this election, and if they show up in a state as conservative as Arkansas, it is not unthinkable that they will show up to the polls in November when the political environment heats up. Also, Halter runs better against any Republican nominee, and his need to campaign in a run-off will keep his name out there and help him in November.

Lastly, in Pennsylvania Joe Sestak defeated 30 year incumbent Arlen Specter. This is nothing but good for Democrats because one Sestak is more liberal, two he's a stronger and tougher campaigner, three has an intangible that seems more real and down to earth, and four does not have the baggage that Specter has. It seems that Specter was not completely opportunistic in his changing parties, as he has voted almost solidly Democratic and has given his support to Sestak, yet Democrats should be happy that Sestak won, and the improved prospects for the fall. Also, the Democrat won in the PA-12 special election, which kills the GOP talking point that Dems are going to start losing everything, and gives the Dems a much needed boost for the sprint to November.

All in all it was definitely a good night for liberal and progressive Democrats everywhere and shows that the GOP tide which was said to be coming may not be as severe as everyone once thought, and Democrats are getting enthused, something that will surely have a great impact on how bad the 2010 cycle will be for Dems.

Pennsylvania Senate Race

The Pennsylvania Senate Race in 2010 has generated much interest since Arlen Specter recently switched from the Republican to the Democratic Party. I recently began doing my poll analysis, the method can be seen below, and it seems that Arlen Specter, the blue line, has a large lead over the Republican favorite, and far right candidate, Pat Toomey. Now this data was compiled from polls dating from April 29 to May 6 from the firms, in order, Quinnipiac, Susquehanna, POS, and DailyKos/Research2000. The data shows a firm lead for the Democrat in a state that has been becoming increasingly Democratic over the past decade. Now all of this poll data is based on Arlen Specter successfully securing the Democratic nomination, which is anything but certain. The most discussed contender is Joe Sestak, a Congressman from the state, who had made his interest in the seat known. As of now, Specter is the favorite, and Sestak has not said whether he will enter the race, yet I'm sure many Democrats are hoping he does, for Specter's support among the Democratic base is not particularly strong given his history, which includes 40 years as a Republican. The Research 2000 poll shows this bearing out, where Specters solid support is quite small, particularly compared to his soft support, which may move to Sestak. Either way, Specter leads Sestak 56% to 11%, but given this other information we can see an easy scenario where Sestak could seep up Specter's soft support to a point where he wins the Democratic primary, which is about one year away. So as of the now, the seat seems safe Democratic, the question will be just how Democratic it will be, whether the nominee is Specter or Sestak.