AL, CO, FL, IL, NC Updates

Tuesday (6/8/2010):
NC: PPP 6/5 601 Cunningham 35% Burr 46%; Marshall 39% Burr 46%
RAS 6/3 500 Cunningham 35% Burr 47%; Marshall 36% Burr 50%
Would like to see Burr's numbers lower, he's been hovering around 46% this whole cycle. I think Marshall would definitely be a better candidate for the Dems, although neither Dem can seem to break the 40% mark just yet. Right now this seat will probably stay GOP, but its early and Burr does not have strong support whatsoever, so its a long shot but could be a surprise win for Dems.
--> Remains Favored Republican with Burr over Cunningham +8.5% and Burr over Marshall +6.5%

AL: RAS 6/3 500 Barnes 31% Shelby 58%;
-->Safe Republican Shelby over Barnes +24.8%

Wednesday (6/9/2010):
FL: QUIN 6/4 1,133 Meek 17% Crist 37% Rubio 33%
RAS 6/7 500 Meek 15% Crist 37% Rubio 37%
-->Toss Up: Crist over Rubio +1.3

CO: RAS 6/7 500 Bennet 40% Norton 46%
Bennet 41% Buck 46%
Romanoff 42% Norton 43%
Romanoff 39% Buck 45%
--> Race shifts from Leans Democrat to Toss Up Bennet over Norton +.4%, Bennet over Buck +2.6%, Romanoff over Norton +2.0%, and Romanoff over Buck +.6%

IL: RAS 6/7 500 Giannoulias 39% Kirk 42%
--> Race shifts from Leans Republican to Toss Up Kirk over Giannoulias +2.0%

Iowa Race Ratings (6/5/2010)

Since my last post there have been a couple of polls that changed some of my predictions, not in a major way, but I just wanted to record what the most accurate picture currently is of some of the races. So here is my current take on Iowa.

As noted there have been 2 polls out of Iowa painting two different pictures. One (PPP) gives Republican Senator Chuck Grassley an edge of 57% to 31% over his Democratic challenger Roxanne Conlin. The other (R2K) gives Grassley the advantage by a much closer margin of 50% to 42%. Right now my formula has Conlin with about 37% and Grassley around 53%. Of the four polls which have been taken of this race Grassley overall is hovering around 50% and Conlin around 40%. As stated before Grassley definitely has the advantage here, but if Conlin can positively improve her name recognition and paint Grassley as a standard bearer of the GOP and the Party-of-No and bring his numbers down she might have a chance. Overall this race stays in the Likely Republican column right now.

Grassley 53.23% Conlin 36.72% R+16.5 (Greatly effected by what I consider to be a PPP outlier FYI without the PPP poll Grassley 50.3 Conlin 41.2 R+9.1)

Race Ratings-Quick Edition

So I have been doing some polling analysis using my method from the 2008 election for the 2010 Senatorial election cycle in a variety of states with competitive and non competitive races. I just wanted to put some of my ratings out there. There won't be deep analysis just yet, maybe a line or two where needed to explain myself if you think I'm crazy. I hope to do an analysis of each race at different times throughout the next few weeks but here's my snapshot as of today June 4, 2010.

Safe Democrat: VT, MD, HI, NY-A (Schumer), NY-B (Gillibrand +24), OR (+13)
Very Likely Democrat: CT(Blumenthal +20)
Leans Democrat: CA (+6.5)
WA (+3)
WI (+2..but very little polling, and I don't quite trust it)
Toss-Up: CO (D+2.5)
NV (D+4.5..this is if Angle wins, if either other candidate wins it will be much closer but they're both about D+1)
OH (D+1.6)
PA (R+.5...this just switched back R after a RAS poll that was off base with others, right now i would rate this a tossup but give the edge to Sestak)
MO (R+1.2...just got a new poll showing this race super tight, still give edge to Reps though)
IL (R+3.3...no polling since the Kirk fumble-a-thon, so likely to change)
NC (R+1.5...this is with Elaine Marshall, she's in a run-off with Cal Cunningham, Cunningham right now gives this a R+5.3, could be a surprise pick up for Dems)
KY (R+8.1...inflated because of a RAS poll that was most definitely an outlier, should be closer, still give Rep an edge)
Leans Republican: NH (R+11.8...I can't believe Ayotte's numbers being this high in a state like NH I see this getting closer)
AR (R+15 with Halter, +23 with Boozman...very uphill for Dems but it is a Dem seat, hopefully Halter can pull one out)
FL (R+2 over Indy, R+16 over Dem...either way Rubio is stalling out, and Crist could caucus with the Dems after his nasty fight with GOPers in Florida and nationally, should be interesting)
Likely Republican: IA (R+10.7...should remain Republican but not a poll since early May when the Dem seemed to be making up ground)
IN (R+16.5...Bayh was the only shot Dems had in my opinion, this seat will most likely go back to GOP haven't seen a poll in awhile though)
LA (almost no polling, especially recently, Melancon hopes hadn't looked good though, but his recent public advocacy with regard to the oil spill may increase chances, have to wait to see)
Most Likely Republican: SC (R+19...should be solid for Republicans, but DeMint is under 50 and his radicalness might make this race closer, also the only poll shows most people do not know the Dem challenger)
AZ (R+29...very safe with McCain, but if Hayworth win he may have the same problem as DeMint, he is still up R+16)
Safe Republican: AL (R+25.5), GA (R+27), AK, ID, UT, SD, KS, OK, DE (Horrible to see this seat switch, would like to see a poll still), ND (Very sad to see Dorgan retire, and to lose this seat)

So...what would the Senate look like under this current forecast...Dems: 54 GOP: 46...Dems lose/GOP Gain: DE, ND, IN, AR, IL, PA...Dems Gain/GOP Lose: OH

Its still very early, and a lot can happen things are already swinging back toward the Democrats, Congressionally at least, so we'll see what happens. Hope you found this somewhat insightful.

Primary Day (PA, AR, KY Edition) 2010

Okay, so a couple of big primaries were today, most notably, the Democratic and Republican primaries in Kentucky, and the Democratic primaries in Pennsylvania and Arkansas. Adding to this insane amount of interesting political events was the special election in PA-12 which the Republicans were hoping to win to help boost their national meme that people are angry and the GOP will be their savior. They turned out to be wrong.

So the big deal of the night is that Democrats, and more importantly progressives and liberals, win tonight. Why? Well in Kentucky, Paul (Tea bagger) won for the GOP and Conway won for the Dems, and according to all of the polls out of that state pre-primary, this is the best match up for the Democrats. Also, even bigger Paul's defeat over the establishment candidate in the Republican party, which will undoubtedly bring into question the validity of Congressional Republicans, which only helps Democrats.

In Arkansas, the more progressive candidate Bill Halter held Wal-Mart Democrat Blanche Lincoln under 50% which causes an automatic run-off. Once again, this proves that liberals and progressives are enthusiastic about this election, and if they show up in a state as conservative as Arkansas, it is not unthinkable that they will show up to the polls in November when the political environment heats up. Also, Halter runs better against any Republican nominee, and his need to campaign in a run-off will keep his name out there and help him in November.

Lastly, in Pennsylvania Joe Sestak defeated 30 year incumbent Arlen Specter. This is nothing but good for Democrats because one Sestak is more liberal, two he's a stronger and tougher campaigner, three has an intangible that seems more real and down to earth, and four does not have the baggage that Specter has. It seems that Specter was not completely opportunistic in his changing parties, as he has voted almost solidly Democratic and has given his support to Sestak, yet Democrats should be happy that Sestak won, and the improved prospects for the fall. Also, the Democrat won in the PA-12 special election, which kills the GOP talking point that Dems are going to start losing everything, and gives the Dems a much needed boost for the sprint to November.

All in all it was definitely a good night for liberal and progressive Democrats everywhere and shows that the GOP tide which was said to be coming may not be as severe as everyone once thought, and Democrats are getting enthused, something that will surely have a great impact on how bad the 2010 cycle will be for Dems.

Pennsylvania Senate Race

The Pennsylvania Senate Race in 2010 has generated much interest since Arlen Specter recently switched from the Republican to the Democratic Party. I recently began doing my poll analysis, the method can be seen below, and it seems that Arlen Specter, the blue line, has a large lead over the Republican favorite, and far right candidate, Pat Toomey. Now this data was compiled from polls dating from April 29 to May 6 from the firms, in order, Quinnipiac, Susquehanna, POS, and DailyKos/Research2000. The data shows a firm lead for the Democrat in a state that has been becoming increasingly Democratic over the past decade. Now all of this poll data is based on Arlen Specter successfully securing the Democratic nomination, which is anything but certain. The most discussed contender is Joe Sestak, a Congressman from the state, who had made his interest in the seat known. As of now, Specter is the favorite, and Sestak has not said whether he will enter the race, yet I'm sure many Democrats are hoping he does, for Specter's support among the Democratic base is not particularly strong given his history, which includes 40 years as a Republican. The Research 2000 poll shows this bearing out, where Specters solid support is quite small, particularly compared to his soft support, which may move to Sestak. Either way, Specter leads Sestak 56% to 11%, but given this other information we can see an easy scenario where Sestak could seep up Specter's soft support to a point where he wins the Democratic primary, which is about one year away. So as of the now, the seat seems safe Democratic, the question will be just how Democratic it will be, whether the nominee is Specter or Sestak.

New look following election

While this blog while continue to be used for my electoral predictions in 2009 for the NJ and VA gubernatorial races and the 2010 midterm elections, I will primarily be posting my outlook on news stories of the day, including personal analysis along with possible political implications which may emerge due to the day's events. Also, just to clear everything up, I was not able to complete my electoral predictions for the 2008 election, due to a major screw up on my part in not backing up my file with the bulk of information on it. However in days to come I will post my altered electoral predictions just for pure interest driven purposes. More to come tomorrow (or later if I'm in the mood).