Obama v. Perry 2012 Predictions

Yesterday I laid out what is probably the most likely scenario for the 2012 general election for president, Obama v. Romney.  Today I will focus on Rick Perry's chances against Obama as of today, November 6, 2011.  Although Perry's numbers are low, many think he is the second most likely Republican nominee due to the amount of money he has on hand, and the establishment 'cred' he has in the GOP.

Obama v. Perry
Due to Perry's 'late' entry into the race in August, there is not the same amount of polling as with Romney, so more of this prediction is conjecture, but the numbers also speak for themselves.  Here is how I see the race as of right now.

SAFE DEMOCRATIC-232        LIKELY DEMOCRATIC-94          LEANS DEMOCRATIC-32
Hawaii (D+35) 4                          Wisconsin (D+10.6) 10               North Carolina (D+5.7) 15
Massachusetts (D+32.4) 11         Nevada (D+9.9) 6                       New Hampshire (D+5) 4
Vermont (D+29) 3                       Iowa (D+9.5) 6                          Virginia (D+3.3) 13
New York (D+29.8) 29               Ohio (D+9.1) 18                      
California (D+21) 55                    Florida (D+9) 29
Illinois (D+20.4) 20                     Arizona (D+6) 11
Michigan (D+20.2) 16                 Colorado 9
Maine (D+18.4) 4                       New Mexico 5
Connecticut (D+16) 7
Washington (D+13.3) 12
New Jersey (D+13) 14
Pennsylvania (D+11.5) 20
Minnesota 10                  
Oregon 7
Delaware 3
Maryland 10
Rhode Island 4
Washington, DC 3



TOSS UP-19
South Carolina (R+1.6) 9
Missouri (R+2) 10

SAFE REPUBLICAN-65             LIKELY REPUBLICAN-66              LEANS REPUBLICAN-30
 Louisiana (R+15) 8                          Kentucky (R+7) 8                               Georgia 16
West Virginia (R+14.6) 5                  Nebraska (R+7) 5                               Indiana 11
 Tennessee (R+15) 11                     Texas (R+7.2) 38                                 Montana 3                
Alabama 9                                      South Dakota (R+6) 3                               
Arkansas 6                                     Alaska 3
Idaho 4                                          North Dakota 3         
Kansas 6                                        Mississippi 6
Oklahoma 7
Wyoming 3
Utah 6

The states without D+ or R+ have not had any polling data up to this point in the cycle and I have handicapped them based on past voting trends, while taking into account the candidates and how they (or similar candidates) may have performed in these states in the past.

Not counting the TOSS UP states, the current electoral vote totals would be: Obama 358, Perry 161, Toss up 19...My popular vote results would be ~49% Obama to ~38% Perry, with still 13% remaining undecided, leaving a lot of room for either side; however, its important to note that Obama has an 11 point lead and is just about at 50%.  He would be in a much better position with Perry as the nominee compared to Romney, as Perry turns out to be a more polarizing figure, with most people not liking him.  To see South Carolina in the Toss Up category is staggering, but really shows the amount of space Perry has to make up, even in the south.

As with Romney, Arizona is probably more of a toss up, but the only current polling data shows Obama leading.  I would expect VA, FL, OH and NC to be closer because the GOP base will coalesce, but I still think Obama would win these states.  Once again, I'm really interested in what the polling data says for Indiana and Georgia, but no one has polled them recently.

I am strongly favoring Obama for reelection should Perry be the nominee. All things considered, giving this data, I have him leading 358 to 180.  

Obama v. Romney 2012 Predictions

The general election for the presidency of the United States in 2012 will be one of the most hotly contested races.  The political cable news media is only getting more intense, and the bases on both sides will be very aggressive in terms of advocating for their candidate (probably).  As of today, November 5, 2011, three scenarios seem most likely 1) Obama v. Romney, 2) Obama v. Perry, or 3) Obama v. Cain.  I have compiled state polling data on each of these three races (among others) and as a result have the following race ratings/predictions for each scenario.  Today I will focus on Obama v. Romney and the numbers.

Obama v. Romney
Most people in politics and the political media believe Romney will be the eventual nominee of the Republican party.  Also, he has been in the race for president since 2007.  As a result, the Obama/Romney race has been the most polled in the individual states.  Here is how I see the race as of right now.

SAFE DEMOCRATIC-159        LIKELY DEMOCRATIC-67          LEANS DEMOCRATIC-47
Hawaii (D+27) 4                          Michigan (D+10.2) 16                Wisconsin (D+5.2) 10
New York (D+21) 29                    Washington (D+9.1) 12              Pennsylvania (D+4.9) 20
Vermont (D+20) 3                        Connecticut (D+8.3) 7               Arizona (D+4.8) 11
Massachusetts (D+19.4) 11          Maine (D+7.3) 4                        Iowa (D+3.7) 6
Rhode Island (D+17) 4                 New Mexico (D+7) 5
California (D+15.4) 55                  Colorado (D+7) 9
Minnesota (D+15) 10                    New Jersey (D+6.5) 14
Oregon (D+12) 7
Illinois (D+11.5) 20
Delaware 3
Maryland 10
Washington, DC 3


TOSS UP-81
Ohio (D+2.7) 18
North Carolina (D+0.5) 15
Florida (D+0.3) 29
Nevada (D+0.1) 6
Virginia (R+2.0) 13

SAFE REPUBLICAN-70             LIKELY REPUBLICAN-39              LEANS REPUBLICAN-75
Utah (R+32) 6                              New Hampshire (R+8.6) 4             Missouri (R+3.9) 10
West Virginia (R+18.4) 5               Kentucky (R+8) 8                          Texas (R+3.3) 38
Louisiana (R+16) 8                       Montana (R+8) 3                           Georgia (R+3) 16
Tennessee (R+15) 11                    South Carolina (R+6.8) 9                Indiana 11
Nebraska (R+13) 5                       South Dakota (R+6) 3
Alabama 9                                    Mississippi (R+6) 6
Arkansas 6                                    Alaska 3
Idaho 4                                         North Dakota 3          
Kansas 6
Oklahoma 7
Wyoming 3

The states without D+ or R+ have not had any polling data up to this point in the cycle and I have handicapped them based on past voting trends, while taking into account the candidates and how they (or similar candidates) may have performed in these states in the past.

Not counting the TOSS UP states, the current electoral vote totals would be: Obama 273, Romney 184, Toss up 81...meaning that even if Obama lost OH, NC, FL, NV, VA, NH, and IN...if he can hold PA, WI, and IA and take AZ he will win reelection, but just barely.  My popular vote results would be ~46% Obama to ~41% Romney, with still 13% remaining undecided, leaving a lot of room for either side; however, its important to note that Obama only needs ~30% of those undecideds to get back to 50%.

Arizona is probably more of a toss up, but the only current polling data shows Obama leading.  I would also expect NH to come closer to the Democratic side.  I'm really interested in what the polling data says for Indiana and Georgia, but no one has polled them recently.  If Texas comes into play, then I would say the election would be over.

I am definitely favoring Obama for reelection, all things considered, giving this data, I have him leading 341 to 197.   

Good Polling for Obama Continues ~ 11/3/11

Today's polls once again are a great sign for the Obama campaign, the White House, and Congressional Democrats that the American people are starting to get sick of the Republican candidates already and taking another look at Obama and realizing the degree to which he is attempting to do right by the American people.

First, his approval numbers...

1) Obama Approval - Gallup 1500 Adults 10/31-11/2, 44% approve, 49% disapprove...Obama= -1% approval, +1% disapproval (net -2% Obama) 


2) Obama Approval - Rasmussen 1500 LV 10/30-11/1, 46% approve, 52% disapprove...Obama= +2% approval, -3% disapproval (net +5% Obama)


3) Obama Approval - YouGov 1000 Adults 10/29-11/1, 41% approve, 52% disapprove...Obama= -1% approval, -3% disapproval (net -4% Obama)

My Average: 43.2% Approval, 51.9% Disapproval

Obama's approval numbers continue to inch up slowly and is beginning to hit and stay steady in the low to mid 40s as opposed to the high 30s/low 40s.  The Rasmussen number suggests an even greater uptick as they usual favor Republicans.  Also, the YouGov poll usually shows Obama at low numbers regardless of the situation and is an internet poll, something which I believe gives it less credibility and makes it more subject to passionate supporters/dissenters who actively choose to participate.  I believe this trend will continue.  

For the states...

4) Pennsylvania President - Franklin & Marshall 419 RV 10/24-10/30

• 35% Obama, 26% Romney
• 40% Obama, 20% Perry
• 38% Obama, 24% Cain
• 38% Obama, 25% Santorum

Like most F&M polls there are a large amount of undecideds; however, there are several important things to note. One, Obama is up in Pennsylvania a state which is key to a Democratic victory, and one which the Dems need to hold onto (and probably will) in order to win.  Also, Obama has increased his standing, when compared to one of the Republican candidates, in all circumstances since the last time Pennsylvania was polled.  Lastly, if Romney is not the nominee, count Pennsylvania as a LIKELY DEMOCRATIC state, as the other candidates are not viable, otherwise its LEAN DEMOCRATIC. 

AVERAGES: 42.4% Obama, 37.5% Romney (Obama +4.9)

                    44.8% Obama, 33.2% Perry (Obama +11.6)

                    39.0% Obama, 25.2% Cain (Obama +13.8)

PREDICTIONS: Obama v. Romney >> Obama +6-8

                         Obama v. Perry >> Obama +10-15

                         Obama v. Cain >> Obama +12-17

5) New York President - Marist 855 RV 10/25-10/27

• 59% Obama, 35% Romney
• 64% Obama, 29% Perry
• 62% Obama, 31% Cain

New York is and will continue to be a SAFE DEMOCRATIC state.  Even with an approval rating in the mid 40s in the state, Obama blows out all of his prospective opponents.  What is important to note is that his numbers are continuing to rise as they are nationally.

AVERAGES: 56.9% Obama, 35.9% Romney (Obama +21)

                    60.2% Obama, 30.4% Perry (Obama +29.8)

                    62.0% Obama, 31.0% Cain (Obama +31)

PREDICTIONS: Obama v. Romney >> Obama +15-25

                         Obama v. Perry >> Obama +25-30

                         Obama v. Cain >> Obama +25-30

6) Maine Senate - Public Policy Polling 673 LV 10/28-10/31

• 64% Snowe (R), 22% Dunlap (D)
• 65% Snowe (R), 18% Hinck (D)
• 54% Snowe (R), 37% Michaud (D)
• 55% Snowe (R), 36% Pingree (D)
• 31% Dunlap (D), 23% D'Amboise (R)
• 26% D'Amboise (R), 25% Hinck (D)
• 30% Dunlap (D), 25% Dodge (R)
• 27% Hinck (D), 25% Dodge (R)

Should Snowe survive a primary fight, which I believe she will, this seat will be a SAFE REPUBLICAN hold.  Only Dunlap and Hinck are announced candidates on the Democratic side and she leads them both by what are seemingly insurmountable margins.  A moderate might actually survive!! We'll see if the tea party will throw money into this seat and rally behind one of the alternatives, D'Amboise or Dodge, but I don't see it happening right now.

A new feature...Generic Congressional Ballot Questions!  Starting today, I will be adding generic congressional ballot questions to my polling analysis as it seems more and more likely that the US House may switch back to Democratic control.  Therefore, similar to what I do with the rest of the polls I report on, I will provide my analysis and understanding of these polls.

7) Congressional Ballot - YouGov RV 10/29-11/1, 39% Democratic, 36% Republican

Democrats look like they will be aggressive in trying to win back the House and I would give them better than a 50-50 shot to do so.

To sum it all up...

• Mixed approval numbers for Obama, but they continue to tick up slowly
• Good state polls in PA and NY for Obama, as his re-election numbers rise in both states
• Snowe looks increasingly safe in Maine
• Dems are aggressive about the House and may get it back

Obama v. Romney...The Big Picture

As of today, September 20, 2011, the Obama/Romney raced has been the most frequently and consistently polled contest since the beginning of 2011.  This is no surprise because he has been the front runner for quite a long time, and has basically been running for president since 2007.  In total, the race has been polled in 36 of the 50 states since late January of this year.  Most of the results are not too surprising; however, given the current standing of the President's approval ratings and the state of the economy, Obama seems to be in much better shape than most think he is.  The caveat to most of this data is that in several states there has been only one or two polls taken, and it is still very early in the cycle.  This is merely meant to give a snapshot understanding of where the polls have placed the two candidates as of this moment in time.

So, there is the list of the current aggregate data (in order from Obama's highest positive differential)

This current data would yield Obama 290 Electoral Votes and Romney 142 Electoral Votes.  This puts Obama over the 270 EV threshold for a victory in 2012.  This of course does not count the states which do not have any polling data to be analyzed.  If those states were to be allocated to the party which won them in the previous cycle, the final results would be Obama 341, Romney 194.  

Some of the states which are worth taking a look at, in my estimation, are Iowa, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Ohio, North Carolina, Nevada, Florida, Virginia, New Hampshire, and Missouri.

Most conventional wisdom is that some of the most traditionally Democratic states (i.e. Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Ohio) are some of the most vulnerable states for Obama to lose in 2012.  However, he is doing better in these states than the ones which he won that had been Republican (most notably North Carolina and Virginia).

Although given this polling data, Obama would win a big re-election, it is important to note that his numbers for many of the 'Toss-Up' states are in the mid-40s, which is not very high given his incumbent status.  However, one must also take into account that summers are usually a period of low polling and approval for both candidate and President Obama.  Taking all of these factors into account, along with the increasingly more populist message being taken by the president, I believe Obama is in a favorable position for the upcoming election, which is now just under 14 months away!!

More on Romney and Obama to come soon! ( The issues matter of course!)

AL, CO, FL, IL, NC Updates

Tuesday (6/8/2010):
NC: PPP 6/5 601 Cunningham 35% Burr 46%; Marshall 39% Burr 46%
RAS 6/3 500 Cunningham 35% Burr 47%; Marshall 36% Burr 50%
Would like to see Burr's numbers lower, he's been hovering around 46% this whole cycle. I think Marshall would definitely be a better candidate for the Dems, although neither Dem can seem to break the 40% mark just yet. Right now this seat will probably stay GOP, but its early and Burr does not have strong support whatsoever, so its a long shot but could be a surprise win for Dems.
--> Remains Favored Republican with Burr over Cunningham +8.5% and Burr over Marshall +6.5%

AL: RAS 6/3 500 Barnes 31% Shelby 58%;
-->Safe Republican Shelby over Barnes +24.8%

Wednesday (6/9/2010):
FL: QUIN 6/4 1,133 Meek 17% Crist 37% Rubio 33%
RAS 6/7 500 Meek 15% Crist 37% Rubio 37%
-->Toss Up: Crist over Rubio +1.3

CO: RAS 6/7 500 Bennet 40% Norton 46%
Bennet 41% Buck 46%
Romanoff 42% Norton 43%
Romanoff 39% Buck 45%
--> Race shifts from Leans Democrat to Toss Up Bennet over Norton +.4%, Bennet over Buck +2.6%, Romanoff over Norton +2.0%, and Romanoff over Buck +.6%

IL: RAS 6/7 500 Giannoulias 39% Kirk 42%
--> Race shifts from Leans Republican to Toss Up Kirk over Giannoulias +2.0%

What My Electoral Predictions Are About

Hello all,

My name is Chris Comninel and I am extremely interested in this year's presidential election, as I believe many other American citizens are. Last cycle (2004), I was only 17 and was not able to vote; however, I was very in tune with the political process and the particulars of the outcome of the electoral college.

This sincere interest in the process, and a particular candidate, I decided to be as informed as possible about the election, and state polling, for it would be state polling that would most accurately gage the possible outcomes of the election. I searched for some type of averaging formula, but at the time could not think of a good empirical formula. Of course I did give more weight to more recent polls, and gave more weight to polls which had a larger sample size. Given the lack of such a particular formula, I was pretty accurate in noting that Ohio would be within about a point (I have an excel spreadsheet to prove it).

So this election cycle, I thought I would get specific and try to figure out a proper method of averaging the state polls, which are coming out in great numbers due to increased interest. So I followed my weighting stated above, with regard to recentness, but it still had much to be desired so, I did some research and found a remarkable idea, which is currently used at 538.com, a half-life formula of 30 days. Also, I am using a weighting number, given to each poll, based on primary accuracy, with the most accurate organization receiving a number of 3, and decreasing at a rate according to pollster ratings on 538.com.

So here is my methodology, and I am crediting 538.com, for a lot of help in this process. First, my base poll, is a SurveyUSA poll conducted from 2/26-2/28 in all 50 states. Then, there is a jump for most states to mid May, when it was pretty clear who each party's nominee would be, to the most recent poll I could find in a given state. For each poll, I multiply the 1) recentness number, 2) poll accuracy number, 3) the sample size number, and 4) the candidate's percentage received. This gives each candidate a "Multiplication Number." For each candidate, the "Mult Nums." are summed up and divided by a number created by multiplying the 1) recentness number, 2) poll accuracy number, and 3) the sample size number. This gives each candidate an average percentage. The numbers change each time a new poll is introduced.

This is different from 538's predictions because I do not factor in regression data, because although we can understand something from prior elections, I believe each election is unique and has factors which make it such. For example, in '96 and '04, we were dealing with incumbents and any election is going to favor an incumbent because of his great amount of resources. Also, my predictions change daily and are solely based on my averages, and not trend lines. This may change in the future, but because it it so early trends may be exaggerated in a particular direction.

I am doing this solely for my own interests and I am posting it just so its out there. If you find it interesting, thats great, if not, I still do. In coming days, I will post current averages in varying states, and have a little bit of commentary on each average.

Thanks for reading.