Good Polling for Obama Continues ~ 11/3/11

Today's polls once again are a great sign for the Obama campaign, the White House, and Congressional Democrats that the American people are starting to get sick of the Republican candidates already and taking another look at Obama and realizing the degree to which he is attempting to do right by the American people.

First, his approval numbers...

1) Obama Approval - Gallup 1500 Adults 10/31-11/2, 44% approve, 49% disapprove...Obama= -1% approval, +1% disapproval (net -2% Obama) 


2) Obama Approval - Rasmussen 1500 LV 10/30-11/1, 46% approve, 52% disapprove...Obama= +2% approval, -3% disapproval (net +5% Obama)


3) Obama Approval - YouGov 1000 Adults 10/29-11/1, 41% approve, 52% disapprove...Obama= -1% approval, -3% disapproval (net -4% Obama)

My Average: 43.2% Approval, 51.9% Disapproval

Obama's approval numbers continue to inch up slowly and is beginning to hit and stay steady in the low to mid 40s as opposed to the high 30s/low 40s.  The Rasmussen number suggests an even greater uptick as they usual favor Republicans.  Also, the YouGov poll usually shows Obama at low numbers regardless of the situation and is an internet poll, something which I believe gives it less credibility and makes it more subject to passionate supporters/dissenters who actively choose to participate.  I believe this trend will continue.  

For the states...

4) Pennsylvania President - Franklin & Marshall 419 RV 10/24-10/30

• 35% Obama, 26% Romney
• 40% Obama, 20% Perry
• 38% Obama, 24% Cain
• 38% Obama, 25% Santorum

Like most F&M polls there are a large amount of undecideds; however, there are several important things to note. One, Obama is up in Pennsylvania a state which is key to a Democratic victory, and one which the Dems need to hold onto (and probably will) in order to win.  Also, Obama has increased his standing, when compared to one of the Republican candidates, in all circumstances since the last time Pennsylvania was polled.  Lastly, if Romney is not the nominee, count Pennsylvania as a LIKELY DEMOCRATIC state, as the other candidates are not viable, otherwise its LEAN DEMOCRATIC. 

AVERAGES: 42.4% Obama, 37.5% Romney (Obama +4.9)

                    44.8% Obama, 33.2% Perry (Obama +11.6)

                    39.0% Obama, 25.2% Cain (Obama +13.8)

PREDICTIONS: Obama v. Romney >> Obama +6-8

                         Obama v. Perry >> Obama +10-15

                         Obama v. Cain >> Obama +12-17

5) New York President - Marist 855 RV 10/25-10/27

• 59% Obama, 35% Romney
• 64% Obama, 29% Perry
• 62% Obama, 31% Cain

New York is and will continue to be a SAFE DEMOCRATIC state.  Even with an approval rating in the mid 40s in the state, Obama blows out all of his prospective opponents.  What is important to note is that his numbers are continuing to rise as they are nationally.

AVERAGES: 56.9% Obama, 35.9% Romney (Obama +21)

                    60.2% Obama, 30.4% Perry (Obama +29.8)

                    62.0% Obama, 31.0% Cain (Obama +31)

PREDICTIONS: Obama v. Romney >> Obama +15-25

                         Obama v. Perry >> Obama +25-30

                         Obama v. Cain >> Obama +25-30

6) Maine Senate - Public Policy Polling 673 LV 10/28-10/31

• 64% Snowe (R), 22% Dunlap (D)
• 65% Snowe (R), 18% Hinck (D)
• 54% Snowe (R), 37% Michaud (D)
• 55% Snowe (R), 36% Pingree (D)
• 31% Dunlap (D), 23% D'Amboise (R)
• 26% D'Amboise (R), 25% Hinck (D)
• 30% Dunlap (D), 25% Dodge (R)
• 27% Hinck (D), 25% Dodge (R)

Should Snowe survive a primary fight, which I believe she will, this seat will be a SAFE REPUBLICAN hold.  Only Dunlap and Hinck are announced candidates on the Democratic side and she leads them both by what are seemingly insurmountable margins.  A moderate might actually survive!! We'll see if the tea party will throw money into this seat and rally behind one of the alternatives, D'Amboise or Dodge, but I don't see it happening right now.

A new feature...Generic Congressional Ballot Questions!  Starting today, I will be adding generic congressional ballot questions to my polling analysis as it seems more and more likely that the US House may switch back to Democratic control.  Therefore, similar to what I do with the rest of the polls I report on, I will provide my analysis and understanding of these polls.

7) Congressional Ballot - YouGov RV 10/29-11/1, 39% Democratic, 36% Republican

Democrats look like they will be aggressive in trying to win back the House and I would give them better than a 50-50 shot to do so.

To sum it all up...

• Mixed approval numbers for Obama, but they continue to tick up slowly
• Good state polls in PA and NY for Obama, as his re-election numbers rise in both states
• Snowe looks increasingly safe in Maine
• Dems are aggressive about the House and may get it back

Pennsylvania Senate Race

The Pennsylvania Senate Race in 2010 has generated much interest since Arlen Specter recently switched from the Republican to the Democratic Party. I recently began doing my poll analysis, the method can be seen below, and it seems that Arlen Specter, the blue line, has a large lead over the Republican favorite, and far right candidate, Pat Toomey. Now this data was compiled from polls dating from April 29 to May 6 from the firms, in order, Quinnipiac, Susquehanna, POS, and DailyKos/Research2000. The data shows a firm lead for the Democrat in a state that has been becoming increasingly Democratic over the past decade. Now all of this poll data is based on Arlen Specter successfully securing the Democratic nomination, which is anything but certain. The most discussed contender is Joe Sestak, a Congressman from the state, who had made his interest in the seat known. As of now, Specter is the favorite, and Sestak has not said whether he will enter the race, yet I'm sure many Democrats are hoping he does, for Specter's support among the Democratic base is not particularly strong given his history, which includes 40 years as a Republican. The Research 2000 poll shows this bearing out, where Specters solid support is quite small, particularly compared to his soft support, which may move to Sestak. Either way, Specter leads Sestak 56% to 11%, but given this other information we can see an easy scenario where Sestak could seep up Specter's soft support to a point where he wins the Democratic primary, which is about one year away. So as of the now, the seat seems safe Democratic, the question will be just how Democratic it will be, whether the nominee is Specter or Sestak.