OH: Rasmussen 6/3 500 people, Fisher (D) 43% Portman (R) 43%. This is good news for Fisher, he's keeping it close in a race that for some reason a lot of people seem to be writing off for the Dems. With this new poll he's probably about 2 points ahead given Rasmussen's highly GOP tilted house effects for this cycle. This has to be, either the first or second best pick up chance for the Dems this year, with Missouri in the other slot. (imo OH is first, then MO).

New projection numbers coming soon using new pollster ratings from fivethirtyeight.com, overall everything is pretty much the same slight variations bc of new ratings/inserting house effects, should give more accurate forecast

CORRECTION: Anlgle leads Reid by 3 similar to last M-D poll...doesn't change my opinion much tho

NV poll from Mason Dixon shows Angle with almost 10 pt lead in the GOP primary...in general 625 people dates unsure shows Reid 44 Angle 41, Reid 42 Lowden 41, and Reid 39 Tarkanian 46...imo Tarkanian is def strongest candidate but seems GOP will nominate Angle and improve Dem hopes...still tossup but I say D +2-3 esp if Angle is candidate

Iowa Race Ratings (6/5/2010)

Since my last post there have been a couple of polls that changed some of my predictions, not in a major way, but I just wanted to record what the most accurate picture currently is of some of the races. So here is my current take on Iowa.

As noted there have been 2 polls out of Iowa painting two different pictures. One (PPP) gives Republican Senator Chuck Grassley an edge of 57% to 31% over his Democratic challenger Roxanne Conlin. The other (R2K) gives Grassley the advantage by a much closer margin of 50% to 42%. Right now my formula has Conlin with about 37% and Grassley around 53%. Of the four polls which have been taken of this race Grassley overall is hovering around 50% and Conlin around 40%. As stated before Grassley definitely has the advantage here, but if Conlin can positively improve her name recognition and paint Grassley as a standard bearer of the GOP and the Party-of-No and bring his numbers down she might have a chance. Overall this race stays in the Likely Republican column right now.

Grassley 53.23% Conlin 36.72% R+16.5 (Greatly effected by what I consider to be a PPP outlier FYI without the PPP poll Grassley 50.3 Conlin 41.2 R+9.1)

Wow another IA poll from R2K this time 800 people 6/1 shows Grassley at 50 and Conlin at 42, a very different result from the PPP poll...maybe it is a little more competitive than I thought overall given mixed polling seems still likely GOP

IN: Rasmussen poll 6/3 500 people Coats 47 Ellsworth 33...brings some hope for dems but still likely GOP doesn't look good but if Coats #s keep dropping Ellsworth is a good candidate