Obama v. Romney...The Big Picture

As of today, September 20, 2011, the Obama/Romney raced has been the most frequently and consistently polled contest since the beginning of 2011.  This is no surprise because he has been the front runner for quite a long time, and has basically been running for president since 2007.  In total, the race has been polled in 36 of the 50 states since late January of this year.  Most of the results are not too surprising; however, given the current standing of the President's approval ratings and the state of the economy, Obama seems to be in much better shape than most think he is.  The caveat to most of this data is that in several states there has been only one or two polls taken, and it is still very early in the cycle.  This is merely meant to give a snapshot understanding of where the polls have placed the two candidates as of this moment in time.

So, there is the list of the current aggregate data (in order from Obama's highest positive differential)

This current data would yield Obama 290 Electoral Votes and Romney 142 Electoral Votes.  This puts Obama over the 270 EV threshold for a victory in 2012.  This of course does not count the states which do not have any polling data to be analyzed.  If those states were to be allocated to the party which won them in the previous cycle, the final results would be Obama 341, Romney 194.  

Some of the states which are worth taking a look at, in my estimation, are Iowa, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Ohio, North Carolina, Nevada, Florida, Virginia, New Hampshire, and Missouri.

Most conventional wisdom is that some of the most traditionally Democratic states (i.e. Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Ohio) are some of the most vulnerable states for Obama to lose in 2012.  However, he is doing better in these states than the ones which he won that had been Republican (most notably North Carolina and Virginia).

Although given this polling data, Obama would win a big re-election, it is important to note that his numbers for many of the 'Toss-Up' states are in the mid-40s, which is not very high given his incumbent status.  However, one must also take into account that summers are usually a period of low polling and approval for both candidate and President Obama.  Taking all of these factors into account, along with the increasingly more populist message being taken by the president, I believe Obama is in a favorable position for the upcoming election, which is now just under 14 months away!!

More on Romney and Obama to come soon! ( The issues matter of course!)

Republicans Moving Right

Currently, the Grand Ole' Party of Reagan and Bush are in quite a leadership crisis and there seems to be no apparent direction in which the majority of the party wishes to go. There are those who would like to keep drifting farther and farther right both politically and socially. There are also those who would prefer to move more toward the "center" which, following the 2008 election is still to the right of where the country would prefer to be, but that's what political parties do right. Anyway, in between these two poles we find a varied number of positions and outlooks on the significant, and not so significant, issues of the day. This is all normal within a political party, and is to be expected, the problem with the Republican party comes in the infighting we see on a daily basis among different players within the party.

We have seen this search for a leader and direction in significant ways over the past several weeks. The first major difficulty came in the aftermath following the passage of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act. While most Republican members in Congress decided to oppose the package (all in the House, all but 3 in the Senate), there were Republican governors who believed the package would be useful for their constituents and their states. This has created much turmoil within the Republican party. What the governors, such as Gov. Schwarzenegger (R-CA), Gov. Crist (R-FL), and Gov. Huntsman (R-UT) understand is that without this money, people will literally suffer. The Congressmen and women who chose to be overly, prinicpled ideologues instead of pragmatic legislators, are doing so to simply please the Conservative zealots, and seem to care little about the actual living conditions of the citizens of this country. This final point also applies to those governors of several southern states (Jindal (LA), Barbour (MS), Perry (TX), Sanford (SC), Perdue (GA)) and Alaska (Sarah Palin!!!), who have decided to put national ambition ahead of their constituents and have decided to reject some of the funds for those who need them the most, the unemployed. The Republicans will have to decide what is more important, their tired ideals or their constituents real life needs. Their decision, as of right now seems to be the former, and if it holds to be true, they will be in serious trouble politically, because with the election of Obama, we saw that the polity wass much more interested in real solutions as opposed to hyperpartisan ideals that alienate rather than bring people together.

This brings me to Rush Limbaugh, the darling of the Conservative wing of the Republican party. He is without a doubt the loudest voice on the right, the problem for the party comes when they must decide whether they listen to him, and he becomes the leader of the crowd, or if he is just another voice. It seems they are choosing the former. Time after time the Republicans are allowing Rush to set the agenda. We see this when they give him the keynote at CPAC, or when the newly elected RNC Chairman has to apologize for benignly suggesting he may be the leader of the party that just elected him as their leader. Rush is the driving force behind modern Conservatism and it seems that the old fashion moderate, intellectual conservative is a dying breed and will continue to be so as long as the Republicans keep pushing themselves farther and farther to the right. By examining any of the speeches at the CPAC (check out CSPAN.org, or watch this Daily Show clip), this shift is evident.

The Daily Show With Jon StewartM - Th 11p / 10c

CPAC After Party

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Political Humor
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By moving even farther to the right the Republican party will become increasingly marginal and serve only to act as an obstructionist party. Instead of viewing the landscape of the world in which we live and creating policy positions accordingly, given their world view, the Republican party is holding fast to the principals of the 1980s and early 2000s which have lead to the economic crisis we are in now and disregard the dire situation in which individuals and groups find themselves. When a political party begins to disregard entire groups of persons, it will become marginal, and will have a very tough time winning in multiple, non traditionally Republican parts of the country. Furthermore, it will allow the Democratic Party to spread into some traditionally Republican regions such as the mid and upper mid-west (MO, ND, MT), southwest (AZ), and the Atlantic south (SC, GA). We shall see where the Republicans decide to go in the future, however it seems that they are increasingly moving to the right and favor the incendiary language of Rush to the more moderate and pragmatic tones that may actually win an election.

New look following election

While this blog while continue to be used for my electoral predictions in 2009 for the NJ and VA gubernatorial races and the 2010 midterm elections, I will primarily be posting my outlook on news stories of the day, including personal analysis along with possible political implications which may emerge due to the day's events. Also, just to clear everything up, I was not able to complete my electoral predictions for the 2008 election, due to a major screw up on my part in not backing up my file with the bulk of information on it. However in days to come I will post my altered electoral predictions just for pure interest driven purposes. More to come tomorrow (or later if I'm in the mood).