Hello all who read and enjoy history and politics! I love history and politics and will be thoroughly, and thoughtfully commenting on these two subjects! Take my words for what they're worth, comment back, and always keep an open mind!!
Obama has a net approval rating of negative seven percent in both daily tracking approval polls, showing once again that his standing is increasing steadily, albeit at a predictably slow rate. Even Rasmussen has him at 46% and a deeper look at their poll shows that is strongly approve/disapprove numbers are even climbing slowly. With regard to the IA Caucus, please read my earlier post on Herman Cain and his unyielding position at the top of the GOP primary field.
Yesterday, the Des Moines Register released a well respected poll of likely Republican Caucus goers in Iowa which showed that Herman Cain has not dropped in the polls yet, and it seems he may be more than just a "flavor of the month," a term coined by the increasingly insignificant Sarah Palin. The poll, done by Selzer & Co., showed Cain with 23% support among caucus goers, marginally leading Mitt Romney who has 22%, after that there is a ten percent drop of to Ron Paul at 12%. For a means of comparison, MSNBC's First Read points out that four years ago, "Romney led the field — at 29 percent - to former Arkansas governor and eventual caucus-winner Mike Huckabee's 12 percent in the October 2007 edition of the same poll." Romney is at a lower point than he was four years ago, and the electorate has moved farther to the right, both not good signs for the former governor of Massachusetts. Herman Cain seems to not be losing traction among Iowa Republicans and polls continue to show him at the top of the pack, whether you look at the races state by state or at a national level.
Cain's surge in the GOP primary contest began in late September/early October, and has continued in spite of numerous negative analysis of his tax plan, campaign strategies, blunt language with regard to different voting groups, and lack of seriousness organization in early primary states. However, he remains at the top of the polls in these states, and seems to do better the more people get to know about him. In comparison, Rick Perry only stayed this high in the polls, during his initial surge, for about a two to three weeks (from around mid/early August to the end of the month). Using my polling averaging formula, you can easily see the raising of Cain, plummeting of Romney, and the stagnation of the field otherwise.
It is obvious that Cain should not be counted out and is resonating with voters, especially tea-partiers, in some way, even in the face of an increasingly negative narrative. Everyone, in the media at least, seems to believe that the race will come down to Romney and Perry, with Paul playing the role of possible spoiler. However, I think there is definitely room for other faces, as the GOP electorate seem unhappy with their choices and seem to be going from candidate to candidate trying to find the 'right' fit. Even with as unpopular as Barack Obama is, Mitt Romney, hasn't been able to coalesce the Republican base for the past four years, its difficult to see a reason why they would all of a sudden become enlightened to the word of Romney.
While these aren't the best numbers, they continue to show an improvement in the president's standing. The Rasmussen poll is promising and shows a marked increase from days prior showing Friday was a good day for Obama. I expect this to continue to happen especially with the multitude of political news stories out there are about the ineptness of the GOP primary field and their party's intransigence in the Congress.
President Barack Obama will have a net neutral approval rating by December, and here's why.
It has been a rough almost three years for Barack Obama. There's no doubt that Obama has faced a great deal of scrutiny, from all angles, since the beginning of his presidency. Additionally, since the GOP took control of the House of Representatives, it has been increasingly difficult for him to get any of his bills, initiatives, or policy plans passed in Congress. Not surprisingly, as a consequence of this barrage of negative attention, Obama's approval ratings have suffered greatly.
According to Gallup, from July to September, President Obama's average approval rating stood at a very weak 41%. This was most likely a result of relatively high and stagnant unemployment, media hyped fears of a double dip recession, continual reports of low economic growth, and a Republican field taking up all of the oxygen on the news, using most of their time to denigrate the president in any way they could. Of course, additionally, there is the constant anti-Obama/anti-government chatter that you will here wherever you go.
However, things are starting to look up for the president. Taking a look at the current polling data on the approval of Barack Obama's job as president, beginning in October, and extrapolating the current trend line of the these polls there is a lot of hope that these 'underwater' numbers will reverse themselves, and it will not take relatively long for this to happen.
Obama started the month of October with an approval rating of around 41.5% with a disapproval rating of around 54% (This was found by using a logarithmic regression of over thirty polls from October 2 to October 26). Doing some quick math would tell you that his net approval rating around negative twelve and a half percent (12.5%). This number is not only disheartening to supporters of the President, but not a good omen when the election is thirteen months away. However, several things have happened since the beginning of the month, and as a result so have the President's fortunes. As of today, October 28, President Obama's approval is around 43%, with a disapproval of ~51.5%, or a net approval of negative eight and a half percent (8.5%). This is a dramatic and impressive, but not unexpected, rebound for the president, and there are several reasons why I believe this has happened.
Since the beginning of the month, Obama has taken out two of the world's most dangerous leaders in Anwar al-Awlaki and Muomar Khaddafi, which has only continued to strengthen his foreign policy credentials both abroad and at home. This is proof for independents that Obama's policy can be successful, and that they may be giving him a second look. Additionally, the President announced the that by the end of the year, all US troops will be withdrawn from Iraq, an action which a majority of American's believe is well overdue. This move hypothetically would increase Obama's approval among a variety of different groups, from liberals and libertarians who never liked to the war, to independents and conservatives who have grown increasingly sour of the war.
While these moves have likely helped Obama, the economy is the lead story, and what happens in the country with regards to the economy will have the greatest impact on his reelection chances and his approval ratings in general. In that vain, there have been several recent reports and polls which have shown that the stagnancy of the economy may be coming to an end, and that the fears of a double dip recession may have been well overblown. Last quarter, advance estimates show that the GDP grew at a rate of about 2.5%, which while not great, is much better than many thought it would be. Additionally, a recent Gallup study showed that unemployment may have decreased by a significant rate in October, a study which the jobs report will hopefully confirm this coming Friday. Consumers hear more positive news and as a result, have a more positive attitude about, which can only help the President.
Both domestically and with regard to foreign policy, there are concrete reasons to help understand this increase; however, I believe the political narrative has much more to do with it that anything. If one looks at the events of the past month, several narratives emerge. First, the President is among the people, and getting things done. Since early September, Barack Obama has been on the road through many states all over the country promoting and explaining his jobs bill, rallying his base, and showing the American people that he is trying to get something positive done in Washington. Additionally, Obama has shown an increasingly assertive tone by deciding to implement policy through executive order and directly confront those in Congress who continue to block progressive and positive action. While this is happening the media is also continuing to focus on the Republican primary. On its face, this might seem to be a benefit for the Republican candidates, as many of them will become more well known and their views will be available for public consumption. However, it seems that the more people get to see of candidates such as Michelle Bachmann, Rick Perry, and Herman Cain, the less they like, as these candidates do not seem serious, practical, or realistic options for the presidency of the United States. Once again, Barack Obama looks stronger compared to these candidates, and among independents becomes a more viable and practical choice for reelection.
Given these three narratives, it is not surprising to see President Obama's approval ratings on the rise. If the economy continues to grow, particularly through the holiday season, and the President continues to stress the importance of the passage of a comprehensive jobs bill to an increasingly intransigent Republican led House of Representatives, his approval will only continue to rise. The trend suggests that by mid to late December, Barack Obama will have a neutral net Approval rating of approximately 45 to 46%. If unemployment drops by an even more significant rate, and the public becomes increasingly frustrated with the GOP in Congress, look for his approval to increase by an even greater rate.
It is easy to count out Barack Obama; however, I believe but attitude is beginning to change and people are beginning to see the real problems within our government, and understand that this President is trying to help and is trying to make things better for the middle class.
As of today, September 20, 2011, the Obama/Romney raced has been the most frequently and consistently polled contest since the beginning of 2011. This is no surprise because he has been the front runner for quite a long time, and has basically been running for president since 2007. In total, the race has been polled in 36 of the 50 states since late January of this year. Most of the results are not too surprising; however, given the current standing of the President's approval ratings and the state of the economy, Obama seems to be in much better shape than most think he is. The caveat to most of this data is that in several states there has been only one or two polls taken, and it is still very early in the cycle. This is merely meant to give a snapshot understanding of where the polls have placed the two candidates as of this moment in time.
So, there is the list of the current aggregate data (in order from Obama's highest positive differential)
This current data would yield Obama 290 Electoral Votes and Romney 142 Electoral Votes. This puts Obama over the 270 EV threshold for a victory in 2012. This of course does not count the states which do not have any polling data to be analyzed. If those states were to be allocated to the party which won them in the previous cycle, the final results would be Obama 341, Romney 194.
Some of the states which are worth taking a look at, in my estimation, are Iowa, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Ohio, North Carolina, Nevada, Florida, Virginia, New Hampshire, and Missouri.
Most conventional wisdom is that some of the most traditionally Democratic states (i.e. Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Ohio) are some of the most vulnerable states for Obama to lose in 2012. However, he is doing better in these states than the ones which he won that had been Republican (most notably North Carolina and Virginia).
Although given this polling data, Obama would win a big re-election, it is important to note that his numbers for many of the 'Toss-Up' states are in the mid-40s, which is not very high given his incumbent status. However, one must also take into account that summers are usually a period of low polling and approval for both candidate and President Obama. Taking all of these factors into account, along with the increasingly more populist message being taken by the president, I believe Obama is in a favorable position for the upcoming election, which is now just under 14 months away!!
More on Romney and Obama to come soon! ( The issues matter of course!)
Starting tomorrow, I will unveil my current view (for what it's worth) of the 2012 landscape, based primarily on polling data from recent weeks and months. My focus will be on general election match-ups. Given the wide variety of GOP candidates and hopefuls, and the limited amount of time which I can devote to this hobby of mine, I will focus on the following races in particular: Obama v. Romney, Obama v. Perry, and Obama v. Bachmann. Should another candidate emerge, I have data, but I will only present these cases right now, as they seem most likely at the moment. Given the current atmosphere, the results may surprise you!
Recently, I read The Last Campaign by Thurston Clarke, a book which discusses, in depth, the 1968 campaign of Bobby Kennedy for the presidency of the United States. Though his campaign only lasted 82 days and took place 43 years ago, it still resonates deeply with me as a text about both that time and ours. Below is my review of the book and a short video which encapsulates its importance for me. Please read and watch!
A People’s History Through the Story of One
One of the most important lessons which I have learned throughout my study of history, political science, and social studies education is that it is absolutely essential to look at the stories of multiple people to get an accurate picture of a time period.The understanding of multiple perspectives and view points on any historical event is needed to see the true picture, and avoid being biased in any study of said event or topic.Therefore, whenever one reads a book which is seemingly about one person, the reader must approach that book with some skepticism that that story is not the whole story, and there may not be a discussion of the multiple perspectives needed to come to a real understanding of the material.This is the approach which I took reading Thurston Clarke’s The Last Campaign: Robert F. Kennedy and 82 Days that Inspired America, a book which centers around Robert F. Kennedy’s 1968 campaign for the presidency of the United States.One might come to this book thinking it is solely about Bobby Kennedy and the strategies and tactics which he made during his campaign and how they affected and influenced America, ultimately concluding with his death in June 1968.However, this book turns out to be the complete reverse, instead focusing on how the many different types and of men and women from all races and classes throughout society impacted his campaign and how he in turn made them the focal point of his mission, to win the Democratic nomination for president.Clarke is able to bring the reader an understanding of 1968, a year which is commonly known as tumultuous, that encompasses all aspects of society and discusses the challenges that people of America and the world were facing at this time.What makes this book truly interesting is that he does this through the lens of a political campaign, but what becomes apparent while reading the book, this political campaign was like no other.
Of course, when looking at any book about history or politics, one should immediately become aware of the argument the author is attempting to make and the goals which he is trying to reach through his writing.In the opening of The Last Campaign, Clarke describes some of the ills facing the United States that came to bear throughout the 1960s, and in doing so he is laying a groundwork through which the reader is able to understand why the campaign of Robert Kennedy was so needed to raise the hopes of the people, in his opinion.The means by which he describes these issues troubling the nation is even more enlightening, as he does so through a description of the many people lined along railroad tracks who came to give RFK a final farewell as his body traveled from New York to Washington, DC three days following his assassination in California.One passage describes how deep the admiration was stating:
Passengers stared out the windows and saw men in undershirts, sport shirts, uniforms, and suits: crying, standing at attention and holding their hard hats over their hearts.They saw women in madras shorts, housedresses, and Sunday dresses: weeping, kneeling, covering their faces, and holding up children as if telling them, “You look at Robert Kennedy, and that’s the way you should lead your life” (Clarke 4).
It is absolutely essential to the argument of the book that the reader understands the breadth and the depth of the impact of RFK and his campaign.With that understanding, the refrain which Clarke keeps returning to, in some form or another, is the question, “What did he have that he could do this to people?” (Clarke 6).Throughout the rest of the book he attempts to answer this question and show people today the inspiration which was inherent in the campaign and the man himself.In doing so he achieves something much more important, and allows the reader to get a sense of what the people of the late 1960s were actually going through and brings real historical empathy to picture, allowing us to better take something meaningful from the text, apart from the greatness of the man.
The structure of the book is important to the story which Clarke paints of the campaign, of the man, and of the people who were affected by actions and the words of Bobby Kennedy.He lays out the book, initially, as a framework of the campaign by beginning with the Prologue: June 8, 1968 in which he describes the adoration most had for RFK and his broader impact on the people of America, primarily those in the middle class.He follows with seventeen more chapters, each subtitled with the dates in which he is focusing that discussion around.This helps to facilitate the chronology for the reader and gives a real sense of how quick the campaign started, progressed, and was finished.Throughout he interweaves the challenges and successes of both Robert Kennedy and the people of the United States.He does this in a way which brings the reader back into the campaign by including first hand quotes from Kennedy’s closest advisors and confidants, while also embracing the words of everyday people, which may have only met the man for a brief moment, but for whom he had the largest impact.By structuring the book according to chronology, and by integrating a multitude of stories from all different perspectives, the reader is really able to see the impact which Kennedy had on people and the way he touched peopled.However, a lesson which one should also take from the book is the degree to which other people touched and influenced Bobby Kennedy and how this in turn created a bond between him and the people that has not been seen since his campaign in early 1968.This is not only an important lesson in politics, but also in history as it is becoming increasingly important to see and realize the significance of all people in shaping and guiding history, and how people in power can work with people of the masses to create a society and discussion that helps advance the cause of the nation.
As mentioned before, the content of the book is not simply a political discussion of what to do and how to run a successful campaign, but rather it is a complex and inspiring narrative of a man, his conflicting thoughts, and the people which drove him to fight for them.Through the progression of the book the reader gets a real and personal sense of Bobby Kennedy and the many forces which influenced his decision to run for president and the perpetual fears and complications which followed his announcement to run in the Democratic primary.One only needs to look at the chapter titles to see the conflict that came with the campaign and the hopes and fears of the people that manifested themselves as throughout the Spring of 1968.These chapters include, in order, “No Choice, ‘He’s Going All the Way,’ ‘Bobby Ain’t Jack,’ The Era of Good Feelings, A Prayer for Our Country, [and] ‘Guns Between Me and the White House’” (Clarke).In each of these chapters, as well as the rest of the book, the reader gets a sense of the back and forth between the wonderful hope and promise of his campaign and the inexorable fear and fatality that filled his campaign and his supporters’ thoughts and dreams.This is most clearly seen in Clarke’s account of a conversation between Jimmy Breslin, a campaign aid, and John Lindsay a reporter covering the campaign. When Breslin asked, “Do you think this guy [Kennedy] has the stuff to go all the way?” Lindsay replied, “Yes, of course he has the stuff to go all the way…but he’s not going all the way.The reason is that somebody is going to shoot him.I know it and you know it…And, please God, I don’t think we’ll have a country after it” (Clarke 50).This is a stunning reality for someone who was not alive at the time because it is unimaginable to think that someone who was as popular a political figure was not assured safety.This one comment, along with the multitude of stories and recollections from people who experienced the era really brings the reader a sense of the tumult that was a part of everyday life for people in the late 1960s.Clarke employs Kennedy’s campaign as a means to both mitigate and describe this turmoil and does so effectively.
As with any book, there are some areas where possible criticisms can be found, and places in which one must look at the text critically.In The Last Campaign, one can argue that the author takes a position and primarily uses people who were close to Robert Kennedy as sources, and as a result is overly praiseworthy of the man and his message.However, while Clarke is undoubtedly biased in favor of Kennedy, he does a good job attempting to enlighten the audience to the point of view of the critics of Bobby.He does this several times throughout the book, whether it was prior to his entry into the presidential race, where he mentions people calling him “ruthless and opportunistic,” or the attitude of many people after he joined the race that he could never live up to his brother (Clarke 37, 54).These are definitely not positive words to associate with any man, but Clarke does lay out the argument that is against him in order to build a greater picture of the time for the audience.Even as he does this, he consistently attempts to show how Bobby overcame these criticisms and proved a lot of people wrong.Similarly, one may say that the book focuses too much on Robert Kennedy.However, any book which is biographical is, inherently, going to be about that person and their experiences at any given time.In contrast, Clarke does not solely discuss the subject, and attempts to bring into view the larger context of the era in which he is writing about through primary quotations and observations from numerous sources of those who were close to the subject and of those who simply experienced his campaign in an auxiliary manner.This sets it apart from other books which are centered around one man or women and makes it more impactful for the audience.
The Last Campaign by Thurston Clarke is a complex and thoughtful story, not only about the 1968 presidential campaign of Robert F. Kennedy, but also about the people who were influenced and who, in turn, influenced the man and his message.It works as a wonderful social history describing the challenges and hope embodied in the 1960s and particularly in 1968.The author is able to answer his question and show the audience what was and continues to be special about Robert Kennedy.
